The Elite Eight begins tonight with all four number one seeds still alive and playing as favorites in this weekend's games.Our friends at covers.com tell us that, "[o]ver the last six NCAA Tournaments, Elite Eight underdogs have gone 15-8-1 against the spread (ATS), going 2-2 ATS or better in each season. Of those 24 underdogs, 10 have won outright, including six in the last two years."
We think that this is consistent with the general trend toward parity that we have seen develop over recent years in college athletics, and we will play that trend by taking both underdogs tonight. We think that both Xavier and Louisville have the talent to win outright against UCLA and North Carolina tonight. Xavier has athletic big men who can guard Kevin Love, apparently the only Bruin who can score, and Louisville, particularly center David Padgett, really impressed us on Thursday night against Tennessee. The general public favors both UCLA (55%) and UNC (68%), but the experts at wagerline.com are split on the UNC/Louisville matchup, and favor Xavier over UCLA. This indicates that the smarter money is on the dogs tonight.
The picks: Louisville +6 over North Carolina, and Xavier +6.5 over UCLA.
Overall Picks record (6-5 (54.5%)). NCAA Hoops (5-4 (55.5%)).
3 comments:
Oh my God, I think I'm going to tear my face off because of that picture.
looooooove the pic!
Peter, WHAT is that picture? Good lord.
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