Friday, June 27, 2008

2008 NBA Draft Analysis

We like the Cavs pick. J.J. Hickson, 6’9, 242 pound, 19 year old freshman power forward from NC State. Why not? The Cavs wanted youth on the front line, and they got it. With upside. NC State is a solid program, and Hickson is young. Real young. Theoretically, the sky’s the limit for him, so we’ll remain optimistic until we have reason not to. Free Darko’s Shoals provided the following analysis of the pick last night on Deadspin:

"My thinking, as of right now—which is how LeBron thinks about this team, which is what matters—is that Hickson < Gooden < Boozer."

Shoals probably didn’t put much thought into this, and it’s a simple way to play into everybody’s favorite NBA storyline, “LeBron’s leaving Cleveland.” But it’s not as though Boozer was traded for Gooden who was then traded for Hickson. We’re also not sure why Hickson can’t soon develop into at least a 10 and 10 guy like Gooden was. And Hickson looks to us to be more athletic than Gooden (watch the video here). He should be able to learn a lot from LeBron, as well as the Cavs' frontline vets, and develop more quickly as a result. We’ll write more about him as more info becomes available. Welcome to Cleveland, J.J. We’re glad to have you.

Update: 12:05 P.M. -- We wrote this before checking out two fantastic posts on Hickson at Waiting for Next Year. Love the quotes here. And agree that "if you don’t believe you can get a player who will make an immediate impact, then it makes sense to pick a guy with a world of talent like Hickson." We're so on board with this Hickson pick.

Thoughts on a few more picks:

We’ve never seen him play, but we like Danilo Gallinari. Of course, Knicks fans are apoplectic that the sixth pick was used on an allegedly slow-footed European. But Danny G. is only 19, and apparently still growing. He’s also known to have impressive offensive skills -- a greeeat outside shot and a nose for the basket. His feet couldn’t be that slow, could they? And can’t this be learned? How fast are Nowitzki’s feet? How good is his “lateral movement”? How much does this matter? Additionally, it’s apparent from the many photos of him on the internet that Gallinari plays with a certain intensity, and he strikes us as having a certain star quality that seems like something different from the braggadocio that we see from American 19-year old basketball stars. And his nickname is Big Cock (he even has his own logo). There’s a fine line between a healthy confidence/cockiness and something worse. Gallinari seems to live close to this line, but how many NBA rookie lottery picks don’t? We’re going to root for him to overcome the slow-footed Euro stereotype because it would be fun to have this guy become a star in New York. Also, we’re just not sure why everyone is so quick to assume that this guy will be a bust. We expect that the draft night boos will provide substantial motivational fuel, and hope that the good people of Italy will get behind their countryman, and provide a moral/social support network for the youngster to help him along the way to stardom stateside.

Finally, bringing Derrick Rose back home to Chicago had to be the right decision. Michael Beasley reminds us of Carmelo Anthony. And why do the Bucks always draft the guy who gets the most pre-draft hype? Andrew Bogut, Yi Jianlian (since traded), and now Joe Alexander. We wouldn’t be surprised if everyone in the Bucks front office paid $900 for iPhones when they were first released.

Now that the draft is over, we’ll tune back into the NBA sometime next May -- unless the Cavs make any trades in the meantime.

8 comments:

Coachie Ballgames said...

haha love the iphone line.

while i can't say i'm pumped for the big cock pick i think its absurd that the fans booed. who did they want instead? Shook Lopez???

Bryan said...

The Knicks fans are there to put on a show - as soon as the SAS interview was over, they even clapped a little. It's a good show, but it's all B.S.

smittypop2 said...

Care to comment on ESPN's terrible draft coverage. RIP Stuart Scott. All those idiots cared about were the wingspans of the players and how many freshman were drafted. How many freshman do they think are going to be drafted every year?? What a bunch of idiots. The NBA draft and college landscape is a lot different than 2 years ago. This is clearly going to be an ongoing trend and doesn't need to be commented on every 2 seconds. I am also sick of them sucking every single players dick. Why can't the give some honest assessments for once?? Why can't we hear that the Kings made an awful pick?? I am pretty sure that Kiper and the NFL guys are not scared to rip teams. These dicksuckers just talk about what upside and what a great fit every single player is. We need Barkley, Walton, SAS or someone with heart doing the commentary. I will add that I was ok with the Hickson pick for the Cavs. Also, were the Lopez twins in "Fast times at Ridgemont High"? Why do they talk so idiotic?? Do they surf 24 hours a day and how the fuck did they get into Stanford?? They seem like retards. My 2 cents.

d said...

WFNY has some good stuff about the Hickson pick, but it strikes me as if he's trying to convince himself. After all, two of the guys he wanted instead (CDR and Arthur)were there for the taking. Look, it is an EXCELLENT point that stars are rarely found outside the lottery in the NBA. And plenty of teams screw up there as well. To simplify (because with world class athletes it is a thin line that can change over time), you are generally left with two choices when you are picking lower: potential upside v. predictable mediocrity. The Cavs and WFNY have talked themselves into going with the former with Hickson instead of the latter. Ok, fine, that means no CDR, Ryan Anderson, Courtney Lee, White or Chalmers. Those are guy who fit more into the 2nd category. Not much upside, but should be solid bench players (I would have take CL or CDR though I'd consider Chalmers, shooters/shotmakers besides Lebron are what the Cavs need, especially since Mike Brown can't coach offense).

But even going with the risky upside/down the road pick, I don't think Hickson was the guy. If I knew I was rolling the dice (and not trading) I'd have taken Jordan Arthur or Koufas (almost certainly Jordan). If we are projecting best case scenarios, each of those guy's upsides are better than Hickson's and seem just as (un)likely. If I were going with upside, I'd probably have taken Jordan, although Arthur is probably the safest of all these risker guys.

Dan said...

I came here to post mostly what "d" posted, but lo and behold, it was already there. If you want a piece who can help LeBron win a title right away, Hickson isn't it. If you want a piece that can be a 20/10 guy in three years but will struggle for a while Hickson isn't it. If you wanted a player for who Jason Maxiell is the ceiling and Wayne Simien is the floor, Hickson is your wheelhouse.

Cleveland Frowns said...

Pretty sure that Hickson has a higher ceiling than Maxiell. Will buy you a beverage of your choice if that's ever proven wrong and will expect you to do the same if the other happens. Thx.

Look at Maxiell's stats from his freshman year at Cincy, playing in a worse conference. Lower than Hickson across the board.

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/players/playerpage/555965

Dan said...

Upgraded to Brandon Bass on the advice of counsel:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/J.J.-Hickson-1239/

How exciting.

And those Maxiell stats are from back in the day where people with talent played college ball past the age of 19. Not a super useful comparison.

Same problem with Pyscho-T or, hell, my boy Gary Trent coming out of OU 10 years ago. A 6-8 inside player with no mid-range game and OK but non-elite athleticism...doesn't really make me wet in the boy shorts. Sure he can hustle his way to 15-8 on certain nights, but we had Drew Gooden and that didn't do a lot for us.

Listen, I hope it works out. We all do. But I think you're drinking the kool-aid in thinking this was a good choice considering who (Arthur, KK, etc.) was still on the board.

Dan said...

Also, in case you didn't hate the pick enough, Portland, at that point, had 33 and 36 in the second round and could not stop trading indiscriminately.

You really think the 19th pick and a 2 next year (or a 2 next year and a few million bucks) doesn't net both those picks? Probably without the few million bucks...maybe without the 2 next year? Really? (HINT: I didn't check to see if Cleveland actually has a second round pick next year...its possible they have already traded it for Wally's dick or Damon's eyes or some other antidote de jour).

Point being, DeAndre Jordan AND CDR or Mario Chamlers? Really? That's not a better draft than this?

http://snicka.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/jay-lebron.jpg

Take a picture Danny.