NFL Week 3: Beware of The Bad Action Bros.

We have three picks today. One for each time slot.

At 4:00, it’s the Ravens -2.5 over the Browns: There is simply no better value in the NFL these days than in betting against Romeo Crennel and Derek Anderson in a "must-win" game. Today might be our last chance to do this, because as the 2008 Browns season continues to slide down the tubes it becomes increasingly difficult to call any game a "must-win." The Browns were only able to cover last weekend for two reasons, neither having to do with them being a competent football team. First, was Crennel's inexplicable decision to play into the Steelers' hands by kicking a field goal with just 3 minutes left in the game and the Browns needing the touchdown to tie. Even if the Browns were able to get the ball right back, a quick drive down the field was something that they had not done all game, and did not appear at all capable of doing, especially in the monsoon-like conditions at Cleveland Browns Stadium on Sunday night. And of course they didn't, losing 10-6, but covering the 6.5 point spread, thanks to the field goal.

This Kotite-ian decision to kick the field goal is tied to the larger reason why the Browns were able to cover. That is, the basic sportsbook karma that comes due for anyone who “chases his losses.” We weren't alone last week in believing that the Browns didn't belong on the same field with the Steelers. Roughly 97% of the action at Sportsbook.com was on the Steelers, as was seemingly 100% of the action at the Mandalay Bay sportsbook. Important here is that the game was played at 8:00 PM. If you were having a bad day with your picks and were inclined to chase your losses, you were going to go with the Steelers. A play like that almost never wins. And we saw it coming. We were at the sportsbook at Mandalay with our buddy who was wearing a Steelers jersey. Our pal was continually approached by desparate crazy-eyed strangers offering Steeler love, who must have believed that seeing a Steelers jersey in the sportsbook on a night when the Steelers were playing football was some kind of amazing coincidence and a sign that their miserable day at the sportsbook would be saved. The eyes of these folks were glazed with the unmistakable look of a bad day at the book, and these folks all said things like "yeah, go Steelers, I'm huge on them tonight...I really need them to come through." "Great. Thanks, pal. Really appreciate you wrapping up the karma of my squad with that of your sorry a$$. You know, actually, I have some inside information that tells me that the Browns are a good play tonight."

These crazy-eyed strangers were what we call Bad Action Brothers. We first met Bad Action Brothers when we lived out of town and had to go to the local sports bar on Sundays to watch the Browns. While inconvenient, it became a ritual that we enjoyed. We'd set up shop at for the 1:00 games at about noon, and would usually stay for the 4:00 games. This sports bar was a busy place on NFL Sundays, and there were a lot of regulars with whom we'd discuss the day's action. Two of these regulars were the original Bad Action Bros. These physically sturdy and inexplicably tan fellows would stumble in for the action circa 12:55, and weren't half done with their first beer before beginning to noisily rehash the previous evening's exploits. The discussion was focused mostly on how many b*tches wanted to "bang" them, how much "e" they had taken, and whose a$$ they were going to kick if he ever tried to talk to Lisa or Angela again. Money was apparently not a concern for the Bad Action Bros. At least not until it began to slide away with their 1:00 action. These guys played to win, after all. But win they did not when they began to chase their bad 1:00 action by doubling up on the 4’s. The point here is, that with all else on their minds (e-pills, Lisa, Angela, and the rest of the b*tches) there wasn’t much time (or space) to think of anything but winning. We know well here at Cleveland Frowns that winning is far from everything. One who chases his losses, by definition becomes unmoored from this principle, as well as the principle that one “can’t win ‘em all.” To increase one’s enthusiasm for a pick based on his need to win is sports wagering inertia at its worst, and is something that the Sports Wagering Gods punish severely. This is why, no matter the merits of the underlying pick, when the Bad Action Bros. begin to pile on, its time to move your own piles. The Steelers pick last week was done in by these brothers of bad action.

And if anything this week, the Bad Action Bros. will be taking the Browns. The Browns are no less a mess today than they were last week. There is something fundamentally wrong with the franchise. It starts at the top, with an owner who cares more about European football than the American kind. If there were ever a case for eminent domain -- to establish city ownership of the team Green Bay-style -- this is it. It’s becoming clearer and clearer that last season’s “success” was more the product of a weak schedule than anything else. The decision to offer Coach Crennel a lucrative extension after last year’s non-Playoff “success” shows how quickly this organization is to cling to any kind of success, as superficial as it might be. Yet this team doesn’t even know how to care for its primary assets. Today, starting left guard Eric Steinbach is out. All teams suffer injuries, but does every team have as many starters laid up on a yearly basis as the Browns? Again, we will ask, who the f*ck is training these guys? It will get worse before it gets better for the Browns. We’re taking the Ravens.

At 1:00, we like the Vikings at home, -3 over the Panthers. Much has been made of Vikings Coach Childress’s decision to bench Tarvaris Jackson for the rest of the season after only two games. Childress has been subject to much criticism for making Jackson the scapegoat for his own bad play-calling. Folks are saying that Jackson never had a chance. But we read something this week that suggests to us that there might be a good reason that Jackson didn’t “have a chance” in the games. That is, that Jackson never earned the confidence of Childress. There’s something to be said for going into a battle with the weapons that one trusts. As “Commander-in-Chief” of the Vikings, Childress is entitled to go to battle with whichever weapons he chooses, including Gus Frerotte. The success of any organization depends on an executive who is unafraid to wield his executive powers. Unlike many Americans, we’re not uncomfortable with that, so we’ll trust Childress here. Plus, it seems that many Panthers backers are following the rationale that: “the Panthers are 2-0 without Steve Smith, and now he’s back.” This sounds like something a fantasy football-head would say. A fantasy-football head might also be overly deterred from backing the Vikes by the news that Adrian Peterson might not play. But Chester Taylor is an adequate substitute.

Finally, the night game. We’ll take the Packers +3 at home over the Cowboys. These look like two of the best teams in the NFL to us. Aaron Rogers has impressed us (the roll-out touchdown pass against the Lions last week, that first one, was sweet). And the Cowboys are coming off a short week in which their defense looked like a sieve. For some reason, 78% of the action is on the Cowboys at Sportsbook.com. We’re glad to take the points with the better-rested home team today.

Enjoy the games, folks. And don’t be a Bad Action Bro.