Tuesday, September 30, 2008

NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5 -- Picking Up the Pieces: Don't Let This Happen to You

Here is a photo of some folks who are not Cleveland Frowns readers. They are depicted in the stands of The University of Georgia's Sanford Stadium, looking very sad watching last Saturday night's football game between Georgia and Alabama. We know these folks aren't Cleveland Frowns readers because knowledge is power, and Georgia fans or not, nobody who knew going in to that game that 'Bama was the Lock of the Year could have possibly looked so sad. The lesson here should be obvious. We will only add that one nice thing about Locks of the Year is that they often happen more than once a year.

As for some less obvious lessons: Tough one with the Steelers last night. We believe that our biggest failure was in assuming that folks didn't know going in just how bad the Browns and Bengals were. It was probably quite easy for folks to see a rookie quarterback going up against a highly-touted Steelers team that hadn't covered the spread in two weeks, and think, "hey, who've the Ravens beaten anyway?" In retrospect, a lot of people probably thought that. One thing that was probably not so easy for folks to see before last night was just how solid Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco is. He was generally Joe Cool in the pocket last night, engineering a couple of impressive touchdown drives against one of the NFL's best defenses, including one to tie the score with 4 minutes left in the game. We're also going to start officially wondering about the Steelers, who lost two more starters for the season due to injuries in last night's game. Perhaps they might learn a few lessons from Alabama's offensive line?

Our other loss was the Raiders +7.5 against the Chargers. This one was an especially big bummer because the Raiders went into the fourth quarter with a 15-3 lead before giving up 25 points in the fourth to lose 28-18. We're not going to argue that this was an especially savvy pick--in fact, we had much better reasons for picking our two Sunday winners than we did for taking the Raiders--but we will note our admiration of now former Raiders' Coach Kiffin's decision to attempt a 76-yard field goal that not only would have made NFL history, but also would have given us the cover.

That's enough about the spilled milk. Let's look ahead to next weekend's action. Who do YOU like this weekend? Games of interest include: Stanford +7.5 at Notre Dame, Illinois +2 at Michigan, Akron -4 at Kent, Ohio State -2.5 at Wisconsin, Titans -3 at Ravens, Redskins +6 at Eagles, and Steelers +4 at Jags.

Commenter of the week for two weeks ago goes to "d" for asking, "how about Arizona only laying 3 on the road against an awful UCLA team?" Great question, d, and thanks for reminding us about the Evil Neuheisel.

Please let us know your thoughts on the weekend's action, for the benefit of the entire Cleveland Frowns community. Thanks.

11 comments:

smittypop2 said...

All my attention is on playoff baseball the next couple of weeks. I know the Tribe didn't make it, but finally we don't have any NYC crap to take all the attention away from the good teams. I am ok with all of the teams in the playoffs and see some good value in some series. I think D. Lowe is tremendous value today and also like the Dodgers +180 to win the series. I would also probably get busy on the BrewCrew to win the series and the Rays in this round (I have yet to see a series line on that though). Any thoughts on the pasttime?

kylmra said...

I really think the Buckeyes will pull this one out...no nc pressure, beanie is back, and I expect pryor to shine in his first start in a primetime game, plus the OSU defense is better than WI.

OSU -2 over WISKY

Bills aren't going to go undefeated and this week seems like the week they lose (great reasoning, I know). A win for Zona puts them in control of their weak division. Coming back home after being embarrassed in NY...they will be focused.

Cardinals -1 over Bills

smittypop2 said...

Kyle,

I (still) think the Buckeyes sucka and are vastly overrated. I really can not believe that Wisky lost to Mich though and now I wouldn't touch the game. If I had to make a pick I would say OSU gets blown out. I don't really have any feeling on your other game either, AZ is so Jekyll & Hyde and Boldin is probably out. That makes it a tough game to pick. You should man up on some baseball.

kylmra said...

S-POP,

I understand why you think OSU is overrated but they have a veteran team with a lot of depth...WI is a tough place to play (especially after a loss like last week's) so I expect a pretty close game. Alot of people think OSU is too slow...I would guess those same peeps would put WI in the same category...Pryor will be the difference maker. As for baseball, no thanks...my action these days is very limited...almost non existent. I save it up for Vegas once a year...you should join us next year!!

I just think the Bills are overrated a little (weak schedule to date, although Arizona's hasn't been much tougher) and have only played one road game all year. I expect Warner to throw for 1000 with 8 ints. 65-49 Cardinals!

Bryan said...

Rays to roll. Just a feeling.

smittypop2 said...

MANNY!!!!!!

Kevin said...

I think the Bucks are getting into championship type form and will steamroll the Badgers in true-Tressel fashion - 17-10.

Cleveland Frowns said...

We're excited about baseball too, but are not at all fans of the five game division series. They should be seven. We'll start picking them in the next round. Go Rays, though.

Mike D. said...

titans and jags. the jags give pittsburgh a tough time every time they play, pittsburgh is coming off a short week of practice, they are missing at least one if not both of their top running backs, their o-line is awful and missing starters, and "ben" is banged up. plus, jacksonville has to know that they need to win this game to keep pace with the titans and hope to make the playoffs, even if it is only 5 weeks into the season.

d said...

I like the Steelers over the Jags. I'd take them outright, but the points make it sweeter. These games are almost always FG affairs and I think -4 for the Jags is too much. The Steelers biggest weakness so far has been the O-line dealing with blitzs. That is not really the Jags D game, they get pressure with their front four or they don't, using athleticism, not scheme. I think this plays into the Steelers strengths. Also, as decimated as both of these teams are by injury, I see a close low-scoring game. Don't know what the under is, but look hard at that.

As bad as Wisconsin looked at the Big House, Madison under the lights on Saturday is a TOUGH place to win. This group of seniors might be mentally tough enough to do it, but I'm staying away from this game. Plus, I think Wisconsin is the better pick and I can never bring myself to bet against the Bucks or the Steelers.

Like the Redskins and Titans in those other games. Baltimore showed friskiness and is better than I thought, but the Titans D is too much for the Ravens. Another close, low scoring game so watch out for the pushy-pushy on a -3.

Love Illinois, that might be my 2nd favorite college game of the week. Go Vandy this week if you are only making one college play. They are getting 4 points at home, with two weeks to prepare, against an Auburn team that doesn't score on the road. Like Indiana (+7) at Minnesota too.

Cleveland Frowns said...

Good stuff folks, thanks. Don't hesitate to post more if inspiration strikes as the games approach.

Jags/Steelers and OSU/Wisc are both tough ones! Will have to sleep on them.