Now the picks:
Pick #1 -- Texas Longhorns (#5) +6.5 (neutral site) over the Oklahoma Sooners (#1) in the game that they call The Red River Shootout -- Noon EST: The conventional wisdom here tells us that these teams are led by two great quarterbacks, but Oklahoma has a much better offensive line and much better receivers, thus, should dominate. Surely no team has been as impressive as the Sooners thus far this season, especially on offense. That’s why they’re ranked #1. But what’s interesting here is that while the conventional wisdom counsels so unequivocally in favor of a Sooner blowout (with 80% of the action at Sportsbook.com following that wisdom), the line has actually moved down, from 7 to 6.5. This could only mean one thing -- that somebody knows something very unconventional, and has placed no small amount of v-chips on that knowledge. Now that’s exciting. In view of this, we’ll go with the Longhorn squad that’s heard all week that it doesn’t have a chance. We hear that the Longhorns have a plucky defense led by first year defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who we hear has already become something of a folk hero in Texas. That sounds interesting too. And we like the sound of “Get in the game, MUSCHAMP!”But the best reason to take the Longhorns? Look at this short video clip in which Lou Holtz combines a Longhorns pick with advice about free will delivered with quintessentially Holtzian earnestness. We’d buy just about anything that came along with that.
F*ckin’ Hook ‘em.
Pick #2 -- Notre Dame Fighting Irish +8.5 over the North Carolina Tarheels -- 3:30 EST: Here’s a case where the conventional wisdom appears to be in line with the experts. Folks think that Butch Davis’s Tar Heels are the class of the SEC (ummm, ACC, thanks, D -- 2:28 PM), and have bet this line all the way up from 6.5 to 8.5. We suppose that any idiot could look at this line and think it looks too high (though only about 50% at sportsbook.com do). The Tar Heels might appear to be the savvy play here, but we’re not buying it. They’re supposed to have two of the best receivers in college football in Hakim Nicks and Brandon Tate, but this seems like just the sort of sexy thing about a football team that folks overbuy into. We look at the Tar Heels’ schedule, and see that they haven’t beaten anybody. UConn? UConn??? North Carolina's rout of UConn was fueled by three blocked punts and three interceptions. Indeed, the Tar Heels have recorded more interceptions than any team in Division I college football. Plus, they appear to live by the big play. This hardly seems like a recipe for sustained success. Especially against a team with one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football, and a defense that has done a decent job defending the pass.
We hope these are enough good excuses to bet against Butch Davis, one of our least favorite people of all time. The stitches in our brow that resulted from the Butch Davis era in Cleveland might never become unknit. Couch over McNabb, Courtney Brown over Urlacher, Gerard Warren over LaDanian (AWWWWW!!! GOD!!!! NOOOOOOOOOO F**********************CK!!!! *sorry*), William Green over Ed Reed. We can’t find this anywhere online, but one of the best lines we’ve ever read was from Tom Reed, former sportswriter for the Beacon Journal who wrote one day in the Beacon that: “[It’s a good thing] that Butch Davis wasn’t in charge of the U.S. military draft [in the 40’s] or the capital of the United States would be Berlin.”
Fantastic.
Cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame. F*ck Butch Davis. *sorry*
Pick #3: Northwestern Wildcats +1 (at home) over the Michigan State Spartans -- 3:45 EST: Here’s another one like the Texas/Okla. matchup where the conventional wisdom appears to be going against the experts. 80% of the action is on the Spartans here, but the line’s been bet down from 3 points to 1. We like the Wildcats because they’re coming off a bye-week, and our theory is that a bye-week has a more salutary effect on the performance of kids from more academically rigorous schools. Whereas kids from other schools might be more prone to find trouble during the bye week, the kids at Northwestern are relieved because they got to catch up on their studies. Plus, NU coach Pat Fitzgerald might *might* be developing into one of the best coaches in college football before our very eyes. He’s a Northwestern alum too.
Wildcats. Rawwwrr.
Pick #4: Florida Gators -6 (at home) over the LSU Tigers -- 8:00 EST: An 8:00 time slot for THIS matchup? We can already smell the brown liquor wafting from the pores of the 90,000+ who will be in attendance in the Swamp tonight. Our pick here is primarily influenced by this brief analysis of our Buckeyes by the aforementioned Mr. Hall of edsbs.com, who points out that “Ohio State seems to be doing what good teams do after getting their heads kicked in early: regrouping, finding their rhythm, retooling with the extremely un-gay Buckeye Pistol formation. (Fullback! GRRR!!!), and otherwise recovering nicely for a stretch run.” (Read the whole thing. It's called "Hang on Poopy." Funnnnnny.) We think the same analysis applies to the Gators here in the wake of their loss to Ole Miss. Everybody loses once in the SEC. Why isn’t tonight LSU’s night? We like astute Frowns commenter kylmra’s analysis on this in the comments to the below post. Plus Tebow is mad that LSU fans got a hold of his cell phone number, and that LSU’s resident inveterate a$$hole Ricky Jean Francois is running his mouth again.
Gators. Chomp chomp.
In closing we must note that we wish we thought that LSU was the pick today, if only because we feel like Tigers after taking Hall’s Florida/LSU compatibility test.
Sample questions:
“Do you like air conditioning?
A. Yes.
B. No, it makes skinning giant catfish harder ’cause they skin gets tight an sassy.
Do you like fried food?
A. Yes, preferably from Publix in a cardboard box.
B. Ain’t that redundant?
Your team is down four touchdowns at halftime. How do you react to the GameDay cameras?
A. [sullen stare that could freeze nitrogen while pressing cellphone to ear]
B. “F********CK YEEEEEW WWOOOOOOOOOOOOO TAHGERS GON GITCHA!!!” [shows breasts, regardless of gender]”
Fantastic.
Today is going to be sweet, folks. Enjoy. We’re heading to the grocery store to pick up some bloody mary mix, then will be sitting in front of our TV and computer alllll daaaaay looooong. So let us know who you like today, and especially who you like in Tomorrow’s NFL action, which we'll be here to preview for you. Also, for you locals, Black Keys concert tonight in Akron. Thursday’s should be poppin’ after that Florida game.
Best. Day. Ever.
9 comments:
Ugh. This is what I get for not having time to consult my Frownies before getting my picks in. I took Oklahoma and the line had moved back to -7. I like the ND pick too, NC hasn't been tested at all. Plus, a particularly cool ND sports broadcaster is down there today to carry his team on. Although Butch Davis treated me well as a Steelers fan transplanted to Cleveland, the dude is such a putz, it is always good when he loses. Edit yourself though, NC is in the ACC, not the SEC.
I'll cheer for NW today, but I'm staying away from that game. It seems like MSU always screws me no matter how it works out.
I'm a little shocked you have never been to a SEC game. Which brings me to the real SEC game you should be taking: Vandy -1.5 on the road against Miss. St. I'm going down there in a few weeks for my reunion. It will be good to do an SEC tailgate again. I love OSU and the Big Ten, but I have to concede that I have never, ever, had an experience at a SEC tailgate that wasn't AWESOME. Anyway, the Bulldogs are awful offensively. Everyone keeps talking about how this is the first game Vandy was expected to win, blah, blah, blah. This is the perfect road (always better to play at home of course) matchup for them after the dramatic couple of weeks they had. Miss. St. isn't capable of a big offensive day, so even if Vandy comes out a little flat, this one will be close and they will have the chance to do what they have done all year, win in the 4Q. This line started at -4.5. Everyone has talked themselves into Vandy being lucky and not for real, having to go on the road, blah, blah, blah. This is one of those games where all the casual bettors see upset b/c of that. I call Bullshit. Vandy beat a much better Old Miss team on the road shortly after a big home win against South Carolina, and they will dominate a Miss. team in the reprise edition.
If you are going SEC today, take the Dores.
I like all your picks except NW. I know you have to root for them though. We need the RAYS tonight though!!!
D-Bo...we might be owing you one for this Vandy analysis. Jeez.
um...or not. sorry d. kylmra, comment of the week (see Dice-K post).
how bout them hook'ems?
3-1 with smitty calling out the only loser...nice teamwork fellas!
Not liking the action today (except for Zona)...any ideas guys?
I tell ya what I do like is Dennis with that 25:1 ticket on Penn St. winning the whole F***in thing!!
GO LIONS!!!
Definite props to Smitty there. Loving those Cards today. Lock of the Year.
So sad about my dores. It was great while it lasted. Now, we wait for the comeback. Not a good weekend for this Vandy/UM grad. At least my high school beat North Shore Country Day... yeah.
Black keys - I'm going Friday to see them with Devo when they save us all ;). It will be a legendary concert of the best of Akron musical talent, missing only David Alan Coe.
Sportsman's pre-game today - see you there buddy. (look what a football fan I'm becoming - aren't you proud??)
e -- we got a tailgate. kev's car is parked 5 in from north point garage. meet us there.
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