NFL Week 5 Free-for-All

Unburdened with the pain of having to watch the Browns, we feel free to spread our wings this weekend with a few more NFL picks than usual. As this season has started to unfold, we’ve noticed that parity’s grip on the NFL is stronger than usual. After only four weeks, there are only three undefeated teams, and as ESPN’s Bill Simmons noted going into last week, “25 teams are thinking, ‘we can absolutely make the playoffs.’” Unless you’re the Browns, Bengals, or Lions, it’s a veritable free-for-all out there. Which is why, as we look at this week’s trends at Sportsbook.com, we are surprised to see such heavy action on so many favorites this week. We see so many good looking dogs today that we feel like we’re at Westminster Kennel Club.

Ravens +3 (at home) over Titans (73% of the action is on the Titans here): With these two defenses, the final score of this game might be 3-2. We’re impressed with Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco. We’ll take the points here.

Lions +3.5 (at home) over the Bears (93%): The Lions have much to celebrate this week with the termination of ex-GM Matt Millen’s reign of error. Simmons called it Matt Millen Liberation Day. A buoyant home crowd should help, and the Lions should be able to open up their passing attack against the Bears banged-up secondary.

Dolphins +6.5 (at home) over the Chargers (91%): We’ve not been shy about our admiration for the improving Dolphins this season, and we think the Chargers are crumbling. ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook pointed out that the Chargers’ offensive line has been having problems, and that while folks are “gushing over how San Diego outscored the Raiders 25-3 in the fourth quarter [of last week’s game] . . . San Diego's 25 fourth-quarter points were aided by possessions that began on the Oakland 13 (fumble recovery), Oakland 35 (kick return) and Oakland 44 (downs) and at midfield (kick return).”

Buccaneers +3.5 at Broncos (93%): Deadspin.com’s Drew Magary had this to say about the Bucs this week: “You know how people always like to say that certain franchise or team can help elevate the interest in a whole sport? . . . like, ‘College football is always more interesting when Notre Dame is winning,’ or ‘MLB is always a more interesting place when the Yankees are winning.’ Yeah, well the NFL is always LESS interesting when the Bucs are winning.” While this might be true, we think that this attitude about the Bucs shows that there’s value in picking them here against Denver’s facially appealing offensive attack. Tampa’s defense looks like one of the best in the league, Denver’s looks like one of the worst. If the Bucs can maintain any kind of consistent running attack, they have a good chance to escape Denver with a win.

Texans +3 (at home) over the Colts (96%); Niners +3 (at home) over the Patriots (95%): It’s not without trepidation that we take either of these teams against two of the NFL’s most successful franchises of recent years, but with 96% of the action on the Colts and Pats here, it would be inconsistent with today’s slate of picks to forgo support for the Texans and Niners. At least one of these teams will come away with a cover against the “old-guard.”

Now two favorites that feel like underdogs to us: The Eagles -6.5 (at home) over the Redskins (68%), and the Cardinals -1.5 (at home) over the Bills (81%). We’re not sold on the Skins yet. We remember how awful their offense looked in Week 1 against the Giants, and believe the potential for a similar performance exists today against the Eagles. A classic letdown game for the Skins after last week’s big win against Dallas. As for the Cardinals, they should be rejuvenated by their return home from a disastrous trip back east, and their high-flying offense should provide a tough test for the undefeated Bills, who will be without starting cornerback Terrence McGee. WR Steve Breaston is an adequate replacement for the injured Anquan Boldin, and the Cards should be better at hanging onto the ball than they were last week.

Finally, to add a little balance to our slate, it only seems right to take the Cowboys -16 (at home) over the Bengals. Gawd, the Bengals are bad. Gawd, Chad Johnson is an idiot. No parity here.

Enjoy the free-for-all, folks. Hope it’s a free-for-all, folks.