NFL Week Six Pix -- And The Lock of the Year

It would be hard for today’s NFL slate to top yesterday’s sizzling NCAA action -- but if the games won’t be, our picks should be just as hot.

Especially The Lock of the Year -- The Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (at home) over the Dallas Cowboys. As this season has started to unfold, we’ve come to believe that the Cowboys just aren’t that good. And its no secret that their pass defense is the worst part of them. And how much worse will that pass defense be with Pac Man Jones being as . . . um . . . distracted as he is. It’s hard for us to imagine a sharper contrast in organizational approaches than the one between the Cowboys handling of this week’s Jones “situation” (they are letting their suicidal cornerback play this week) with the way that the Titans approached the issue of Vince Young’s potential mental instability. (Note, Young’s craziness is nowhere near as firmly established as Jones’s). What are the Cowboys thinking here? We’re praying for poor Pac Man, but we’re betting that Kurt Warner might throw for 600 yards on his squad. The Cardinals have the second best passing attack in the NFL, which hasn’t been slowed by the loss of Anquan Boldin. Backups Steve Breaston and Early Doucet have filled in ably, and Larry Fitzgerald is still on the other side. The Cards have killed everyone they’ve played at home this year, spanked the Dolphins on the road, and their only bad loss came against the Jets after they made the ridiculous decision to stay on the East Coast in between games. We can’t imagine what the 80% of folks playing this game at sportsbook.com are thinking in laying the points with the Cowboys, but we strongly encourage you to think something else. The Cardinals +4.5 is the Lock of the Year. We expect them to win outright.

We like two more today to round out your parlays.

Raiders +7 over the Saints: We like the Raiders this season, generally. We see an exciting talented roster there. They’ve been distracted by the situation with Coach Kiffin, but that distraction is gone. And as we’ve read recently at our favorite NFL website, Mike Florio’s http://www.profootballtalk.com/, Al Davis isn’t as crazy as folks like to make him out be. (Read here, here, and here). It’s clear to us that he’s getting a bad rap. The 72-year old self-made NFL legend has earned the right to speak publicly about his team. We’ll say it: We’d much rather have him owning our Browns than an Anglophilic rich kid who shows little to no passion about bringing a winner to Cleveland. To the extent that folks believe that the Raiders organization is a mess due to this Davis situation, there’s value in this Raiders pick today. And here’s something else: Ex-Coach Kiffin still calls and texts Raider QB Jamarcus Russell to discuss opposing defenses, including what he saw from the Saints last Monday night. Florio thinks this is dangerous. We don’t think it’s so bad. It’s hard for us to imagine that Kiffin isn’t being helpful here. People. Helping people. That’s nice. Finally, Raiders are coming off a bye week while the Saints are coming off a short one.

Miami Dolphins +3 over the Houston Texans: It would be hard enough for the Texans to bounce back from last week’s precipitous Rosenfall if they weren’t playing a team with as much juice as the Dolphins have right now. The Texans’ season is officially in the tubes while the Dolphins appear to have been launched out of them. We’ve loved these 2008 Phins since Day 1. We believe the hype. We’re swimming with the Fish. (11:56 AM -- It just occured to us that it seems extra appropriate to pick the Fish on the day when the Pats square off against the Chargers. We're shocked at how uninterested we are in that Pats/Chargers game.)

Enjoy the games, folks. We’ll be back tomorrow to preview Monday Night Football’s return to the shores of Lake Erie.