Tonight at 8:30, the 6th ranked Missouri Tigers square off against the 20th ranked Fighting Illini of Illinois in a re-match of last season's 40-34 barnburner that Missouri needed a last minute interception at their own 1-yard line to win.Missouri is favored to win this game by 9 points. We don't understand why this line is so high. Last year's matchup showed that the teams were relative equals, and it looks to us that Illinois might have improved more than the Tigers did.
When we see a line that looks funny to us, like this 9 point spread, we tell ourselves that the wiseguys might know something about this game that we don't. We thought at first that all the money would be on Illinois with a spread like this, but as we type, 73% of the action is on Missouri. So what's really going on here?
A few things:
One is surely anti-Big Ten bias that must be influencing a portion of the Missouri backers. There is a lot of hatred out there, not only for Ohio State, but for the entire conference. Along these lines, folks have high hopes for Missouri because, in their last game last season -- the Cotton Bowl, they blew out Arkansas 38-7. We think that Arkansas team, surrounded by a whirlwind of Darren McFadden Heisman-hype, was vastly overrated. Meanwhile, folks aren't high on Illinois because they were destroyed by a loaded USC team in the Rose Bowl. But that USC team was really really lowaded, and probably focused after blowing their chance at playing for the national title. Illinois was in uncharted waters in that Rose Bowl, and we bet (we will, in fact, wager) that it was a significant learning experience for them, that they carried with them throughout the off-season. (On this point, note in the ESPN preview the discussion of Illinois QB Juice Williams' intense off-season preparations).
Another good reason to take Illinois tonight is that folks are surely overvaluing the importance of Missouri's Heisman Hopeful, QB Chase Daniel -- who is a bona fide media darling (pictured above, with Chess-board -- smarty-pants!). Folks love a star quarterback, and will look past a number of flaws to get behind one. But Missouri appears to have lost more key players than Illinois. For example, the ESPN Insider report on this game tells us that Mizzou will miss last year's starting left tackle Tyler Luellen, "whose expected replacement, redshirt freshman Elvis Fisher, faces a baptism by fire as he will frequently line up opposite DE Will Davis (9.5 sacks last season)." This sounds dangerous for Mizzou to us. Plus, Illinois will have shutdown corner Vontae Davis to line up across Missouri star receiver Jeremy Maclin. It doesn't look like Missouri has anyone similar to line up across from Illinois own deep threat, Arrelious ("Rejus") Benn.
The summary conclusion by the ESPN Insiders who picked this game summarizes the overemphasis on Daniel that we think is a primary factor driving this line. They pick the Tigers to win by a whopping 11 points. They say that: "With both teams sporting new starters at running back and facing similar run defenses, how well each quarterback plays will have a substantial affect on the outcome of this game. In the case of Williams, expect him to make enough plays with his feet and arm to keep the Fighting Illini in this game early. But while Illinois is hoping Williams takes the next step as game manager and passer this year, Daniel has already established himself as one of the premier all-around quarterbacks in the nation. He'll be the one making plays at key points in the game and that will ultimately help Missouri pull away in the second half."
But what if William's teammates outplay Daniels'? Maybe a classic example of the general public's willingness to view the performance of a quarterback (or any individual football player) in isolation from that of his teammates. Adding this to the anti-Big Ten bias, Illinois looks to us to be another easy pick.
The Pick: Illinois +9 over Missouri.
Thanks to Mizzourah! and the Columbia (Missouri?) Tribune for the photo.
Update: Mizzou wins by 10 in a shootout, 52-42. Que mala suerte! We were done in by not one, but two kick returns for touchdowns by Missouri star Jeremy Maclin. We don't account for those when we make picks. Que mala suerte! Juice Williams arguably played a better game than Chase Daniel. Williams threw for 451 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Daniel throw for 323 and 3. Both had an interception returned for a touchdown, but Juice threw one more than Daniel. Importantly, Missouri looked like the better coached team. The worst thing about this game is that when Illinois scored a touchdown as time expired, they could have gone for a two-point conversion for a 9-point margin, and a push for us (he who gets the push today, lives to push another day). Instead, Head Coach Zook opted to kick the extra point. Zook has a reputation for being a recruiter and not a game manager, and this cements that reputation as far as we're concerned. Losing by ten looks a lot worse than losing by 9, doesn't it? Might this not be important at the end of the season when folks are trying to determine where the Illini fit into the post-season picture? Why not go for two? The inches that we needed were all around us last night Ron! Get in the game!


























