Many of you have undoubtedly noticed the numbers in parentheses that began to follow our picks roughly halfway through this football season (like this: Steelers -6 over Chargers (30X)). As many of you know, these numbers reflect our assigned weight, or value, of each individual pick. The idea behind weighing the picks more heavily toward the end of the season is simple, as we've touched on before: as the season progresses, we ought to have a better idea how it should play out. This is why it is especially important for us to finish strong, and why despite our bumpy start to these 2008 NFL playoffs, we are especially encouraged by our 4-0 finish against the spread last weekend in the Divisional Playoffs, widely regarded as the best football weekend of the year.To give you an idea of just how encouraged we are, and to underscore the brutal nature of this business that we are in, today we will take a stroll around the interwebs to take note of which "experts" did and did NOT finish 4-0 against the spread last weekend. Please note that any pathetic self-indulgence embodied by this exercise is purely coincidental to our stated mission.
So, without further ado, let's start with who did NOT finish 4-0 with their NFL Picks:
We'll start with perhaps the most famous NFL handicapper, ESPN's "Hammerin'" Hank Goldberg, who did NOT finish 4-0 with his NFL Picks. We know this because we watched him pick on SportsCenter on Sunday morning and noted to ourselves that we did not have the same four picks, but, remarkably, there appears to be no record of Hank's picks anywhere on the internet. This strongly suggests that ESPN and Hammerin' Hank have something to hide, which doesn't surprise us.
Sticking with ESPN, their two "Insider" simulation models, AccuScore and TeamRankings.com, did NOT finish 4-0 with their NFL Picks (2-2, and 3-1, respectively).
Nor did their expert analysts Scouts Inc. (3-1) (click on each game review at the scoreboard here to see the "Insider Line" for the Scouts Inc. picks).
On to the human beings, ESPN's Bill Simmons did NOT finish 4-0 with his NFL Picks (0-4).
None of ESPN's eight "NFL experts" picked all four winners of last weekend's games. While these folks don't pick against point spreads, because none of them picked all four winners we can't assume that any of them would have finished 4-0 ATS. Mike Golic came the closest because the only one he missed straight up was 10-point favorite Carolina. If Golic could prove to us that he would have taken the points, even though he expected a Panthers win, then we could say that he finished 4-0 ATS. Missing out on this kind of glory is just one of the perils of picking games without point spreads. Better luck next time, fellas.
None of ESPN's five NFL Sunday Countdown hosts picked all four winners of last weekend's games, nor did any of them come as close as Golic did.
The team of Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell at statistical genius blog Football Outsiders pulled something of a Golic by picking winners in three of the four games, but called Carolina "the easiest favorite to pick this weekend," and noting that the Cardinals "were lucky to come within 4 points back in Week 8." Did the Football Outsiders think the Cards could come within 10 points? Sadly, we'll never know.
Back to folks who know to use point spreads:
None of the handicappers at so called "best sports betting blog ever," the Sedge Court Journal, finished 4-0 with their NFL picks. We mention this blog because it is linked at Frownie Favorite, Every Day Should Be Saturday. (Q: Why aren't WE linked at Every Day Should Be Saturday?)
Big Daddy Drew (2-2) did NOT finish 4-0 with his NFL picks at Deadspin.
Unsilent Majority (2-2) did NOT finish 4-0 with his NFL picks at Kissing Suzy Kolber.
Not one Cleveland Frowns commenter finished 4-0 with their NFL picks (SAD!), and
ONLY ONE of the eleven expert handicappers at football handicapping beacon, The New York Post, finished 4-0 with her NFL picks against the spread.
Which brings us to our Honour Roll:
Miss Charleen, of the New York Post, take a bow.
Greg Cote, of the Miami Herald, take a bow.
Finally, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, take a bow.
We'll be keeping an eye on these three, as well as the smarty-pantses at Football Outsiders, to see if anyone out there might stake a claim to a 7-0 finish. Note that 7 team parlays pay 75-1. Such a finish would surely go a long way toward wiping the stain of mediocrity off of a 50 or so percent success rate with individual picks.
To that end, we're still locked in on the Keystone Combo; Stillers and Iggles. We like them each better every day. Please share your thoughts and picks in the comments. Also, if you are aware of anyone else who picks these games whose picks we can easily access on the web, please let us know so we can expand our list of folks to keep tabs of.
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31 comments:
Lines for Steelers games are always at least one point off. I think of it as the Steelers/Cowboys(and maybe now Patriots) tax. People bet on these teams because of who they are and their preconceptions about them. I think the cumulative effect of this causes the Steelers always to be giving one more (or getting one less) than they probably should. The same thing with the Giants, although that is more of a product of just how many damn New Yorkers there are. So that said, six points is high, but looking at it more closely, is it too high?
I want to look at the Ravens offense today. In their last four games (all must wins) since their second lost to the Steelers the only game the Ravens passing O was good in was Jacksonville at home. Shocker. There Flacco was 17-23 for 297, a great day at home against an awful pass defense (whose O turned the ball over 4 times btw). In Dallas he was 17/25 for 149 and a fumble. In Miami he was 9/23 for 15? and in Tenn. he was 11/22 for 161, almost all of which came on three big throws.
This is in no way meant to denigrate his performance, he has done all you can expect out of a rookie qb I think. His numbers are very Big Benish during his first year starting. But, just like Ben melted down in the afc championship game against the Pats, I think Flacco does this weekend and the Ravens do not have enough offensively otherwise to make up for it. Also, look at the turnover situation since the second Pittsburgh game for the Ravens (+1 in the Cowboys game, +4 against the Jags, +4 against the Fins, +3 against the Titans) and unless they can do something similar against the Steelers, I do not see how they score enough. I am starting to really like that 6 point line. I think the previous Steelers-Ravens games deserve their own breakdown, but I think their close result is holding down the line. Maybe that balances out the Steelers point spread bias.
Great stuff, d. We think we'd take the Steelers all the way up to -9.5.
Great job Frowns, hopefully we can rake again this weekend! btw, Unsilent Majority is in my fantasy baseball league. You are way more insightful than him!
If it weren't for the football gods saying *&%# you to the Chargers and smiting them with a tipped INT and punt off a blocker's helment in the third quarter, there's a very good chance San Diego gives Pittsburgh a good fight (and cover).
agreed. i actually faded the frowns and took the chargers. those turnovers were brutal. too bad ed hochuli wasn't calling the game to overturn them!
Sing along everybody, for Mr. Coupon:
If "ifs and buts," were candies and nuts . . . candieeeeeeez . . . and nuuuuuuuuts !!!
Bik: That's cool re: Maj. You should tip him off abt Frowns.
What can I say: seeing the Ravens in person gives me a bias. I'm just not that impressed with Pittsburgh. That said, it is tough backing a rookie head coach and QB against the more experienced pair on the Steelers. But what the hell, the NFL this decade has rewritten a lot of rules and trends thanks to parity.
Coupon, finally this is your week to be impressed by the Steelers, we're sure.
What a delicious Supe Iggles/Stillers will be!
Take the Ravens
(flap flap flap flap flap)*
Take the Ravens
* (wings instead of claps)
Gave you my rationale in previous post. And for the record, I'd take the Ravens up until Steelers -2. We're going to have agree to disagree MISTER FOUR AND OH.
Your rationale being that Pittsburgh only beat them by 3 in each of the first two games, even though they didn't have Willie Parker in either of them?
Not persuasive.
Nor is the claim that it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. If our memory serves us correctly that happens often enough.
One primary reason we like the Steelers that we haven't mentioned yet is that the injury report. Basically the Ravens entire D is listed on there, and they looked brittle and tired against the Titans on Sunday. We were nervous about that going in, and throughout the game. Justin Gage had a field day against them. We expect more of the same from Ward, Washington, and Holmes. Heinz field in January is just the kind of place where a team like these Ravens runs out of gas.
injuries are a certainly a huge concern for the ravens and the steelers came out of the charger game with nary a scratch.
but as we all know, football is a game of inches and as long as ed reed is in the game, a tipped ball here or there can eazily be a pick to the heezy fo' sheezy!
I just don't see why "you" think Willie Parker alone is worth a large number of points given that the previous games were razor-thin. Why, in that case, "you"'d expect anything other than another razor-thin game is beyond me. I would even argue that — and having watched the second game, I remember this — the Steelers needed a bunch of luck to win, which happened, so if that turns against them it would presumably balance out with Willie P. Hey, it's "your" money.
About the three times "rule" — I said that it's a saying, even if I don't necessarily believe it, there's some logic behind it if the coaching and talent is relatively equal. But I'd like to hear about these "if memory serves" teams. I can remember one offhand: the Super Bowl-reaching Titans (beat Jax 3x). Then again, I can't remember a counterexample. But we're not talking about winning outright: we're talking about covering, and as the line creeps upward I'm more and more inclined toward the Ravens. I see nothing compelling me to take the Steelers here, though Frowns will not and cannot stay away, if I was leaning toward PIT I'd just stay away from this one -- too easy for it to be a squeaker.
I'm also not sure how erroneous picks are "abdication of journalistic responsibility!" Ha!
Nothing compelling you to take the Steelers?
How about a defense that hasn't given up a run longer than 22 yards all season?
Jeez.
The abdication of journalistic responsibility is on the part of ESPN and Hank Goldberg for selling his picks on their show but not giving us any way to track his progress on the web.
That's fair -- hammer away at Hank.
I think you confuse me saying there's nothing compelling about the Steelers with saying they're not good. I'm not saying that. They're very, very good. But the Ravens played them to the final seconds in each of the previous two games. That means the Ravens are also very good. And even if Willie P is now healthy, Ben is not entirely so. Given all that, I think the clear wild card in this game is Flacco, and nothing is a close second.
Well, the last time I personally remember hearing a lot about the "tough to beat a team 3 times in one season" it was before the Steelers beat the Browns again in the Dennis Northcutt game (otherwise known as one of the best comebacks in my personal Steeler fan history and leading to my chair-shattering reaction to the game two weeks later which my ex-girlfriend still gives me shit about. I think the sample size on this is tiny.
Let's take a brief look at
Game 1: I am not sure this game tell us much for either team now, mainly because it was such a wacky game. The Steelers lost two rbs (Fast Willie was already out) and a starting guard. The Ravens lost Willis M. (although this started the McLain show). Flacco was still adjusting (he hadn't had a real good game yet). The teams split tos (1-1, although the Ravens may have come out slightly ahead in the luck department as they put the ball on the ground 4 times to the Steeler 2), penalty yards favored the Steelers, but field possession went the Ravens way. If there is a "one of these is not like the other" moment of that game, it was the Ravens td drive to tie the game in the 4Q. That was the only time all day they scored on a drive that didn't start at midfield or in Steeler territory. Statistically, this game was close though. But really, I think either team could plausibly spin this game as underestimating them. Baltimore for Flacco's adjustments, being on the road, the penalties. Pittsburgh for the injuries (going down to 4th string rb!), Baltimore's slightly flukey field position advantage (the Steelers weren't out-punted) and the lack of fumble luck going their way. I'm not saying throw the game out, but I just do not believe it has much predictive value. To directly answer Bryan's question, FWP and a healthy starting O might be worth a few points over the final score in THAT game.
I think Game 2 is a much better contrast with this game and far more relevant to this week's contest.
The Giants beat the Cowboys in the playoffs last year after losing both games in the regular season convincingly.
How long will the Ravens go without another attempt of taking out any number of Steelers?
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/did-the-ravens-defense-take-out-tennessees-chris-johnson/
I don't like either of these games. I am leaning Steelers/Eagles, but could see any of the 4 teams winning/covering. I would truly save my money for another day. I have not hate for any of the remaining teams and I am totally at peace with any matchup in the Super Bowl. I think it is time to gear up and focus in on NBA buckets and leave these games alone.
Smittypop, that is the biggest pile of nonsense we've ever heard.
And how does it support a Ravens pick to say that the clear wild card in this game is Flacco?
It's hard to see how the Ravens will generate any offense in this game at all.
As I was reading through NFL Power Rankings where on SI analyst has New England ranked as #5, the lights turned on. Wait, I was at the bar watching the Patriots demolish the Cardinals 47-7 a few weeks ago. This team can be exposed, and lost by 40 pts in week 16! Yea, they played great in their first two playoff wins. But, Atlanta, and Carolina? Have there ever been two more over hyped teams? Atlanta's best win was Carolina during the regular season, with their 2nd best probably being a 22-16 win @ San Diego, when San Diego was 4-7! When Drew Brees sliced up the Carolina Secondary in week 17 we sure saw what the Panthers were made of. Eagles are far the superior team, and by picking against them this weekend you will be doing a disservice to your pocket book.
As for the Ravens, its my belief and many others that if Chris Johnson were healthy the final outcome would have been different, and that defense did not look so formidable, a bit worn down. Pittsburgh will be amped and I think the Gas is going to run out.
Eagles & Steelers, don't get it twisted.
Ask yourself this, are you So sharp that you are going to take a team that lost by 40 points in week 16 to New England, and by 28 to the Eagles during the regular season? As Keyshawn Johnson would say, Come on, Man.
Ryan C.
Live to fight another day sir...that is not nonsense. It is much easier for me to pick games when I hate teams that are involved. I do not have that luxury this weekend and am just happy to watch some (hopefully) good football. If someone put a gun to my head I would take the 2 PA teams.
Even with two guys on him, Fitzgerald found ways to get open against Carolina. I assume Jimmy Johnson will keep his secondary sharp, but if the Cards are smart, they'd look at Giants-Eagles tape when Plax shredded them every time, especially on jump balls. That said, I feel very comfortable picking the Eagles and their ball control offense to keep the ball away from Warner and Fitz.
smitty remember what happened the last time a gun was pointed at your head?
"I want your motherf!@#in' Daytons and your motherf!@#in' stereo. And I'll take a double burger with cheese... Motherf!@#er, I said with cheese, n!@#a!"
Fair enough Frowns, you've changed my mind. It's a Festivus miracle!
I understand this Ravens defense is not as dominant as 2000's, but weren't people saying the same thing about their offense back then?
Fred,
I was...they won a Super Bowl with TRENT DILFER. One of the worst Qbs to ever win a SB and a total stiff. You will also notice the losing end of that SB was an even worse stiff (Kerry Collins). I am very happy I don't have to see someone that bad in the Super Bowl again this year.
Ryan C. from Hoboken is a welcome addition to the Frowns commentariat. Sir, if you click the Name/URL you can post as Ryan C. without opening a blogger account so you won't have to sign your posts at the end.
Smitty, good points.
Bik, even better reminder to Smitty.
Bry, glad to see you come around.
Coup, good point re: Fitz. Question whether Warner will have enough time to get him the ball.
PS The Chiefs just got Pioli. I really hope we can bump Romeo up to GM or Mangini can double up. Assholes!!
as much as i love the clowns, if i were pioli i would take the chiefs job as well.. they have a TON more cap room (i believe like $30M+, quite a few solid young players to build around, the #3 pick in the draft, not to mention their weak division.
it will definitely make be an interesting side story for the coming years: chiefs vs. browns
Another interesting side story will be to see if/how quickly Jim Schwartz can turn around the Lions when Lerner didn't see fit to interview him.
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