Super Bowl 43

It’s only appropriate that, on the very best day of the sporting year, Coachie Ballgames brings us his very best work. It’s called “W.W.J.P.?”

This piece reminds us that there are certain mysteries to our universe that are never to be fully resolved; and that we must always be prepared for the unexpected to emerge.

One needs no reminder that the Arizona Cardinals embody the emergence of the unexpected in this NFL season. When we think about these Cardinals, and when we think back on the whole of our adventures with point spreads in this NFL season, we think not only of the unpredictability of circumstances, but also of the importance in flexibly adapting to them. Excellence is easy to identify, and is generally bought and paid for at an efficient price. An entity’s momentum in a rapidly-changing world is not.

This is a big part of why it was so difficult to predict that these Cardinals, who were not apparently excellent at the beginning of this season, or even at the beginning of these Playoffs, would take advantage of a series of remarkable circumstances and land themselves one “Any Given Sunday” away from the NFL Championship. First, the Cardinals benefited from playing in a division, the NFC West, that they were able to lock up in the season's 11th week. Ugly losses to the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, and most infamously, the Patriots, all came with the Cardinals' playoff spot secured. All four of these opponents were fighting tooth-and-nail for their playoff fortunes, the significance of which in this league of parity was apparently overlooked by those who wrote the Cardinals off before each of their three playoff victories that landed them in the Big Game -- including, probably, their playoff opponents.

The oft-repeated point is, once again, that relative motivation has a tremendous impact on the results of these games. In this game that takes such a brutal physical toll on its players, should we have really been surprised that the Cards might have wanted to ease off on the gas pedal before heading into the postseason? And should we have really been surprised that it still worked when they pressed back down on it once the playoffs started (especially when the Eagles gave them the chance to play the NFC Championship Game at home)?

Maybe one big reason why we were so surprised by these Cardinals is that we're generally so quick to begrudge folks for take advantage of being presented with favorable circumstances. It's like, "man, eff the Cardinals, they're so lucky. Well, the excellent and deserved Falcons will show them . . . wait . . . ummm. . . . the excellent and deserved Panthers will show them . . . wait! . . . um . . . . the excellent and deserved EAGLES will show them . . . um . . . WAIT!" We get mad that their division isn't as tough as our team's division. We get mad that they might have rested up by slacking off against a tough stretch of playoff contenders, because they could. It's kind of like how "new money" is more begrudged than "old money." It's dumb.

And we couldn't ask for a more florid display of this particular brand of dumbness than we see in this convulsively sneering piece on the Cardinals' Super Bowl appearance written by Charles Pierce at Slate. Pierce says that:

"This simple fact is that the very presence of the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl is at best a fluke and, at worst, a disgrace. They played in a landfill of a division. They won their two playoff games because Jake Delhomme of Carolina turned the ball over six times and because the Philadelphia Eagles all looked at the newspapers last Sunday and discovered they were in the NFC championship game again. The Cardinals are a glorified Arena Football League team with a soft defense and a running game unworthy of the name. They are in the position that they're in because the NFL rigs its season worse than any carny rigs his wheel. For all the macho posturing of its principal propagandists, between the jiggering of the schedule and the conniving of the draft and the socialistic revenue schemes, and the desperate grab for any mechanism that will flatten out the differences between really good teams and really bad ones, the NFL is the league that comes closest to the biddy soccer league philosophy of making sure that everyone gets a trophy."

Pierce perfectly displays the tendency we have to demean folks for taking advantage of fortunate circumstances presented to them. On Pierce's view, an Arena Football League team can beat a pair of bona fide NFL Championship contenders because bona fide NFL Championship contenders give games away. Pierce's jealousy also leads him to criticize the NFL's competitive model -- it's "conniving of the draft," and its "socialistic revenue schemes."  Conniving to award the worst team in the league the best player to come out of the next draft?  The apocalypse must be here when a sports league takes measures to ensure a level playing field for its ballgames. And it must be that we're all drooling morons that ensures that the NFL continues to stand head and shoulders above the other sports in our hearts and minds, and not that strategy has more of an impact on American football as it does on any other major sport.

Of course, there's a certain comfort that comes with believing that "new money" can't (nor should) ever be as good as the old. In some way, it allows us to absolve ourselves of the responsibility to make the most of the changing circumstances in our own lives, or even recognize the ways in which they change (we'll never be as good as the Steelers, so why try?). But for now, it doesn't matter what the source of this feeling is. The point is that this feeling is palpable today with respect to this game. The Steelers are a model of organizational excellence. One shouldn't not be amazed by their five Lombardi Trophies, or that Mike Tomlin is the third coach in their history, or of the impact that the Rooneys have had on league social policies, or that Dan Rooney eats lunch every day in the team's cafeteria. But this excellence is recognized, bought, and paid for. It's why folks say that the line for every Steelers game is slanted at least two points in their favor.

But we want to believe that we can be excellent too, at least for one really important day. And these particular Cardinals to us embody the notion that we can be. That no matter how bad a place we might find ourselves in, that circumstances can change quickly, and we can and should take advantage when they do. And maybe it is socialism that creates the circumstances that lead us to believe that the Cards can get over on the Steelers today, but this is a ballgame, and what kind of civilized system has ever worked without some redistribution?  And what does it matter today anyway? Today the motivation for both teams should be almost exactly the same. Today the Cardinals have the talent to beat the Steelers if things break right. Today, the leg of the soul of the Steelers, Hines Ward's, is broken, certainly not fully, but at least in the Cardinals' direction. And today, the Cardinals have a coach in ex-Steeler offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt that might be as well-poised as any in the league to make sure that today's outcome breaks in the Cardinals' direction as well.

Our response to these circumstances is to take the Cardinals and the points (6.5), and enjoy what should be a helluva game.

Before we calculate the number of units we'll risk on this game, let's make some prop plays (proper!):

For Super Bowl MVP, we'll put 2X each on Cardinals defenders Dominic Rogers-Cromartie (30-1), Karlos Dansby (50-1), and Adrian Wilson (30-1), and the Field (all the players not listed -- which includes most of the Steeler defensive backfield) (9-1)).

For the first player to score a touchdown, we'll take 2X per on Nate Washington (15-1), and Steve Breaston (10-1).

Finally, we'll put 5X each on Steve Breaston OVER 40.5 receiving yards, Jerheme Urban OVER 20.5 receiving yards, and Leonard Pope OVER 6.5 receiving yards.

As for the game itself, we'll start by doubling our conference championship plays with 150 units, then add the 72 units that we lost on Bye Week Buckets like we said we would, then add the 27X we spent on our prop bets, because those shouldn't chip into our primary concern. So the total play is Cardinals +6.5 (249X)

Finally, we'll parlay the Cards -6.5 with the UNDER (46.5) for 20X (2.6-1).*

THE SUPER BOWL!


*All lines and odds, as always, from Sportsbook.com.

**Special shout to prolific commenter, Steeler fan, and Friend of the Frown, d, who is at the freaking game. Get home safe, d. We look forward to reading your first-hand account (to be posted here, soon, of course).