but we're obliged to share this piece published yesterday by CBSSportsline's Gregg Doyel titled, Let's be up front: Cavs can't win NBA Title.The arguments Doyel makes here should be nothing new to Frowns readers, who know that we've repeatedly sounded the alarm about the Cavs ability to compete against teams with top-line frontcourts since at least February, and done the same regarding seemingly outsized expectations by Cavs fans since at least March. It's not news to us that the Cavaliers' NBA best record might only mean that they're the league's "most consistent against teams that are worse than them," or that the Cavs probably lack "what it takes in their frontcourt to compete with the likes of the Rockets, Magic, and Lakers in the postseason."
Doyel expands on these basic points in observing that "[i]f Cleveland is going to win an NBA title this season, with this roster, it will have to do something that has never been done: Win an NBA title without a great frontcourt, and without a great supporting cast for its superstar."
Doyel notes that LeBron might be good enough to get this done, and even accepts that LeBron is as good as Jordan, before acknowledging a painful truth: "Cleveland has no Scottie Pippen."
Worse, "Cleveland doesn't even have 6-foot-10 Horace Grant, who was good for a double-double. And clearly Cleveland doesn't have Dennis Rodman, who was built like Wally Szczerbiak but averaged a Kareem-like 15.5 rebounds per game when the Bulls were winning titles from 1996-98. "
And with the exception of these Bulls, every other NBA Champ, according to Doyel, "[has] had someone like Shaquille O'Neal or Tim Duncan -- sometimes with David Robinson -- or Hakeem Olajuwon or the combination of Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace. Going back a little farther, NBA champions had big men like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (and James Worthy) or Robert Parish-Kevin McHale-Larry Bird or Moses Malone. Or even Jack Sikma. Wes Unseld. Bill Walton."
Doyel then points out that while Cleveland is 73-9 against every other team in the league, the Cavs are 3-7 against "Boston, Orlando, Los Angeles and Houston -- arguably, teams with the NBA's best four frontcourts."
We'd only add that the if those four teams do have the NBA's best four frontcourts, the other most likely obstacle between the Cavs and a title, the Denver Nuggets, probably has the fifth best in Carmelo, Nene, and Kenyon Martin, and the Birdman heading up a solid stable of reserves.
These are just facts, and it doesn't do anyone any good to ignore them, not least because we wouldn't want to minimize LeBron's legacy, should he manage to overcome them.
We'll be back later with picks for tonight's playoff matchups: Cavs/Hawks and Nuggets/Mavs.
Thanks to Reuters for the photo.
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36 comments:
I (and everyone else, all along) will give you the Lakers. Not only for their frontcourt, but also Kobe. The rest of that article is ASININE. First, start with his "premise", which of course, by ignoring the Bulls dismisses 6 NBA champs right there:
"Most NBA champions have had someone like Shaquille O'Neal or Tim Duncan -- sometimes with David Robinson -- or Hakeem Olajuwon or the combination of Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace. Going back a little farther, NBA champions had big men like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (and James Worthy) or Robert Parish-Kevin McHale-Larry Bird or Moses Malone. Or even Jack Sikma. Wes Unseld. Bill Walton."
Sing it with me, one of these is not like the other, one of these doesn't belong... The Wallaces were never considered "big men" like the others. In fact, that they didn't have a "true big man" was a huge knock against those Pistons teams. Wallace (6-10) could play d, but had no offensive game and 'Sheed would rather stand outside and shoot 3s. That was what everyone said about them. So, theory = fail. KG and Yao are out, so their teams no longer qualify as having better front lines than the Cavs. As for the Magic, they have a good frontline, but it certainly is not of the traditional "Big Man" variety. Hedo and Rashard do not play inside. Z has a better inside game than either, as does AV. They are good, but not traditional big men in any sense. Howard? The man can play D, he might even become better than Shaq someday, but he doesn't have the offensive game yet to compare to any of the Big Men in the article. Period. Would I trade Z, AV, Smith and Wallace for those three? Absolutely. But I'd rather have that frontline and LeBron, not to mention the Cavs supporting cast which is much, much better than ever. (note: Z is a better all around player than Horace Grant ever was). The LAL, relying on Kobe and their frontline advantage, might beat the Cavs. But, if the Magic or any other team does, it is a Mega upset. And it will be mainly because some dude like Brooks goes off for 40.
Frowns,
I appreciate you providing the news and keeping us grownded, but I hate that no matter the outcome you will be satisfied...
1. Cavs win, you are a Cavs fan and will celebrate with the rest of us.
2. Cavs lose, you told us so because of these reasons and the curse.
Just doesn't seem right and makes me wonder which you would prefer.
BTW, Nice writeup "d"...agree 100%. Big Ben comes off our bench!
I do agree the Cavs have big men problems...I just think Lebron is skilled enough (and the rest of the team) to overcome them this year. I am a lot less scared of Boston, LA, Orlando and Houston than I was a month ago. This is due to injuries, style of play and overall play currently. The Lakers don't seem to want it...maybe Kobe doesn't have the MJ heart we all thought he did. He clearly blew the Finals last year and MJ would have never lost to Houston on Saturday night (with all the injuries and other BS going on). Could I be wrong?? Clearly I could...I just don't see them dominating like they should be. Lebron means business this year and I am not sure that they can be stopped..the next round will be a decent indicator as to how they are going to handle a "good" team. I just have to believe this year. I can't see it going any other way right now.
I meant to say the Lakers-Houston game yesterday (time flies when you are having fun). I also like the Cavs to finish out the sweep tonight and rest up again.
One other point, which I'm more lukewarm on since LeBron's O game is primarily from the outside (not that has stopped any of these other guys from being thrown on the pile). But, LeBron IS part of the Cavs frontcourt. He is 6-8, 250 and plays forward. I have not yet seen a justifiable reason to say that someone like Lewis or Hedo is considered a "frontline" player, but LeBron is not.
There is a very good reason why the Cavs's record against those teams you list was subpar. They are the best teams in the league. Do a similar comparison of any of those teams against each other, and I bet you get similar "struggles." Correlation is not causation.
d (and Smitty)... how do the Nuggets figure into your analysis?
d: the article doesn't seem to depend on the big men being "traditional big men" as you use the term. just seems to depend on quality frontcourts, and Wallace and Wallace in their prime is head and shoulders better than what the Cavs have now.
"Z is a better all around player than Horace Grant ever was" is just a lie. Grant's defense had to be at least twice as good as Z's.
Mraz: You ask the question that everyone is waiting for an answer to. An answer that will come with our Conference Finals preview.
d, to your last point, without looking it up, I'm pretty sure that the Lakers and Orlando both have very good records against the league's elite.
Can't we just take this one series at a time? I assume the Hawks will put forth a decent effort not to get swept at home, but the Cavs should dispatch of them soon. Either way, they match up well against a plucky Celtics squad that has to run out of gas soon or a still-not-quite-ready Magic team that has shown plenty of warts this postseason.
Frownie should give an award to Bobby Jenks, who instead of pussyfooting around a near beanball to Ian Kinsler was like, yeah, it was on purpose, I'm sick of our dudes getting hit, but no, I wasn't going to hit him, I made sure to miss him.
That's a better day. Speaking the truth and getting results.
The article doesn't depend on the traditional "Big Man Theory?" Well, I will grant that the article is a mess and barely coherent, so to that extent we will ignore this quote:
"Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, the only exception to my Big Man Theory is the Chicago Bulls dynasty of Michael Jordan, and Cleveland fans are probably clinging to that exception like a drunk clinging to a barstool."
And go with the "best frontcourt argument." First, especially if you are counting Carmello?????? than you cannot justify excluded LeBron from the frontcourt analysis. Without him, the Nuggets frontline of Nene and Martin is probably marginally better than the Cavs (excluding LeBron), but not enough to make any kind of difference. The primary factor in the Nuggets success is not their frontcourt (unless of course you include Carmelo).
LAL v. the Cavs is a whole different story. Trying to make your case stronger by saying LAL and ___ over and over again is a rhetorical trick.
The Magic were 6-5 (with one extra home game, against the Cavs) versus Houston (0-2), LAL (0-2) Boston (2-2) and CLE (2-1). You expect good teams to win at home. So, the Cavs (at 3-7) performed two game worse than you'd expect, and this excludes the fact that they played an extra road game against this set of teams, while Orlando is arguably a half game better (although one of those was an extra home game).
Z's O is twice as good as Grant's. His passing is far better, he is taller/bigger. He played center and guards bigger men generally than PF Grant did. Grant's D and boarding abilities are the only thing that keeps him in the convo. At best, they are close to a wash, as they are entirely different types of players with different skills.
Delonte and Mo are being forgotten here. No shit we don't have a Pippen for our Jordan. But we also don't have Paxson and Kerr as our backcourt. Wait till Delonte and Mo tear up games 5 and 6 of the Finals.
No excuses...just sayin,
Loss @ LA (Z and West out)
Loss @ Orl (Z and West out)
Loss vs. LA (West out)
I think the dynamic of a 7 game series is a lot different than 1 and done affair in the middle of a season. Mike Brown and staff seem very capable of making adjustments. Stan Van Gundy is one of the worst coaches I have ever seen and would love to see him and his choke artists try to compete on a night by night basis against the Cavs.
The fact that Delonte was out for both losses to the Lakers is huge. Hadn't realized that. And relatedly, Ehlo makes a good point about the Cavs backcourt vis a vis the Bulls.
Maybe this means we can't read too much into the regular season, but they did got throttled by the Magic there toward the end when they were at full strength and still jockeying for playoff positioning.
Would just say in closing, d, that Nene and Martin are loads and loads better than Andy and Z.
Whatever. You're not getting past BIG BABY.
Stats...
Z - 13 ppg, 7 rpg, 47% fg
Varejao - 8 ppg, 7 rpg, 54% fg
Nene - 14 ppg, 8 rpg, 60% fg
Martin - 12 ppg, 6 rpg, 49% fg
Statistically they are not "loads and loads" better
our boys are better from the line too...
Z - 80%
Andy - 62%
Nene - 72%
Martin - 60%
The Rockets front court would have been just as intimidating if the NBA wasn't racist against Asians and forced Yao out of the playoffs with a stress fracture.
Defensively they probably are, Mra. And Birdman averages more blocks than the two of them, combined, in one fourth the time, fwiw.
there is no front court scorer in the playoffs that is anywhere close to what Olajuwon or O'Neal or Duncan was. it's nice to point out that most of the championship teams of the last 15 years had either Michael Jordan or one of the three best centers ever to play the game, but this isn't one of those years. doesn't seem so cut and dry to me. think the cavs can feel good about their chances.
Another thing is that Doyel didn't seem to account for the Bad Boy Pistons.
Anyway, Big Dood, we'd feel great about their chances if it weren't for Wahoo's Curse, which, of course, underlies all of this.
The Cavs are going to win it all and I am going to taunt you about this fake curse for eternity. I am going to call it the curse of a fake curse. I am really sick of you even talking this asinine thing. Do you want the Cavs to do well or not?? Your actions sure do speak a lot louder than your words. It is ok to criticize a team, but do you even want them to do well?? You seem to second guess, badmouth and forewarn (about every future move) everything they do/will do. I think you should support them and see what happens. I am not asking blind support, but these guys are DESTROYING THE PLAYOFFS so far. Who else is??
Lakers-No + Bynum is playing awful/injured and the rest of the team is not showing much heart
Magic-Nope + Van Gundy is an awful coach and they do not seem to relish where they are
Celtics-Nope and barely alive +injured
Rockets-Nope + Injuries to Yao and Tmac
Nuggets-Playing very well also and the team I am (currently) most afraid of
The Cavs probably won't win it all, because of the Curse, but if they do, we will be unfazed by taunts that the Curse doesn't exist. A Cavs win will only prove that LeBron was strong enough to overcome the Curse that has plagued this town since the rest of America generally recognized that racism isn't cool.
Even if that happens, there is no doubt that the Curse will continue to plague the team that wears Wahoo on its unis.
As for DESTROYING the playoffs, you could be pretty sure that each one of the five teams you list would DESTROY the sorry teams the Cavs have faced.
True, we are definitely just talking about chances here. The Cavs great run so far should not obscure the fact that neither ATL (which is not at full strength) nor DET were any real test. The Hawks still might get one or possibly two games (tho the latter especially seems nuts) but none of us really thought they had a chance. The NBA had five elite teams that had separated themselves from everyone else going into the playoffs (LAL, CLE, BOS, DEN and ORL) and that hasn't changed. HOU has played LAL tough so far but w/o Yao I just do not see them shooting well enough from outside to win. KG being out has really hurt BOS, they are not at that elite level yet. ORL has the talent, but little playoff exp. They seem to be a year away but that isn't to say that they are done. We'll know a lot more about this Cavs team once their next series starts. Despite what I would call their underperformance so far, LAL seems to be the team to beat on paper, with the Cavs having the intangibles advantages (home court, LeBron on a mission, more focused team, no glaring weakness).
So would LeBron (human) be considered stronger than the spirit of all American Indians?
Cool.
I wonder if there were RedSox fans who actually rooted for the "curse" over the success of their baseball team? Would they be considered fans?
If he pulled it off, LeBron's good karma, whatever's behind it, would be considered stronger than the bad karma behind the Indian's logo and its relationship with this town.
As for your question about Boston fans, it would be pretty dumb to hold such a long grudge over trading Babe Ruth. The Cleveland Curse is far more meaningful. Not sure what you mean re: "fan." Suppose that's a highly specific and subjective determination.
I know a guy who's about to dig deep into how the Ruth "Curse" ended... probably tomorrow-ish... might even announce it on this blog... he's a scholar
OWAH CUHSE IS FAH MOAH MORALLY COMPELLING THAN YOAH CUHSE. YOU CAN'T DISPUTE THIS.
Would the 5 other teams destroy the ones we played?? Orlando struggled with Philly, Boston with Chicago, and LAL with Houston. We all know Detroit and Atlanta are not world-beater, but don't you think the Cavs beat them into the ground and took away any spirit they might have had?? They are defeated and destroyed teams. In the history of the playoffs no one has EVER done this. Tons of shit teams have participated and no one has ever gotten beat up like this. Any explanation?? Could the Cavs be focused?? Could they actually be an ok team?? Why does your fake curse cloud all judgement and take away your loyalties?? Could you answer my question from earlier--do you even want them to win?? I also love how you have a built in excuse if they do win.
while the cavs fly high, the browns are the worst team in the league according to peter king
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/05/10/may11/2.html
to expand upon Don Bigduddo's point, the NBA game has changed, yes, traditionally, NBA Champs have had dominant big men/frontcourts.
But think back to the NBA of our youth. Almost every team had some plodding, doofy 7-footer. At the top you had Ewing, Hakeem (neither plodding or doofy), the Admiral, Daugherty but you also had Duckworth, Never-Nervous-Pervis, Stanley Roberts, etc, etc.
The league is not like that anymore. You can win with great guard/small forward play.
That being said, at some point the playoffs get exciting right?
Peter King is a mouthbreather. Over/Under on Browns wins is 6.5 and I'm taking the over. Their schedule is ridiculously easy.
Smitty: Why are you so mad that we have an explanation for things? WTF? Isn't it good to have explanations for things? And nobody's saying the Cavs aren't focused, or that they aren't an OK team. And who's to say which loyalties are more important. We've said it before, it seems really really dumb to embrace such an insulting symbol out of loyalty to sports teams. It's a good question as to whether we want the Cavs to win. See our first comment in this thread.
Whatever..ambiguous.
where's the love for the WORST record in the majors!!?!????? grady just struck out again!
d, excellent comments. Funny thing about history is, say hypothetically, the Cavs win then next 2-3 NBA championships. I’d bet the next time this tired argument gets brought up people would group the Cavs with the rule and not with the exception. “Three of the four big men were multi-year all-stars” they’d say. Its funny Patrick Ewing was never mentioned in this article, one of the 50 greatest of all time, hall of famer, and for all his big manleness, not one NBA championship. I guess it takes more than just a big man.
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