Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Feeling A Draft

We've got you MLB Draft junkies covered here at Frowns.



While nothing else about what happens at today's Draft will be interesting for at least two years (Strasburg drama aside), at least we got this excellent essay on MLB super-agent Scott Boras written by Deadspin's new heavy-hitter, Tommy Craggs.

Craggs makes the case for Boras as a hero who saved Minor leaguers/draftees from "a weird limbo where their fate is determined by two parties — Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association — who at best have only an oblique interest in their well-being." Thus, "the job of ensuring that minor leaguers got fair value for their services fell, for better or worse, to the agents . . . ."

What Boras did with this job was to ensure, through legal and negotiating strategy, that his clients were able to obtain the value for their services that they'd obtain on the free market -- free agency, essentially.

Craggs criticizes those who criticize Boras for being good at this:

"Boras will once again be turned into the face of everything wrong with baseball, a bizarro realm where the common fan more readily identifies with billionaire owners like Tom Hicks than the middle-class kids who stand to make money off their talent for the game.

"Baseball long ago won this public relations battle, and for that reason, Strasburg's record-breaking deal could wind up boomeranging on Boras. The issue of signing bonuses is sure to come up when the CBA expires in 2011. Baseball, summoning the bogeyman of Strasburg's massive bonus, will certainly fight for a strict slotting system, not unlike what the NBA has (right now, Major League Baseball only suggests how much teams pay their draft picks; more often than not, the slot recommendations are flouted). The players, susceptible to the argument that a dollar given to an unproven prospect is a dollar plucked from a veteran's pocket, will very likely bargain away large chunks of the current system. Boras, unable to bid up signing bonuses, will effectively be marginalized . . .

"The irony is that, because of Boras' unruly success in looking out for his players' interests, he may wind up screwing them in the end."

But we're not so sure that a new system like the one Craggs outlines above will end up "screwing the player in the end," because competitive balance is a big issue here that Craggs seems to overlook. To the extent that folks who argue that baseball's lack of a salary cap (or more meaningful revenue sharing) is ruining the game are correct, Boras' success has only made the problem worse. If it eventually becomes open season on the kids like it is on the Matsuzakas and El Duques, where will the Royals find enough Sidney Ponsons to fill out their roster?

And wouldn't a rookie salary cap make more sense in baseball than in any other sport? We'd be at least as scared as we were excited if we were Nationals fans.

Anyway, we do agree with Craggs that Boras has been good for the game to the extent that he's advanced the ball in a way that exposes the impact of salaries on competitive balance as a real issue for Major League Baseball.


* * *

As for what will be resolved in today's draft, there's a nice round-up by Dennis Manoloff in today's Plain Dealer:

"Nothing spells uncertainty like trying to project how high school seniors and collegians in a metal-bat game will fare as men in a wooden-bat game. The vast majority of those drafted will not be heard from for years as the work through the minors - and only a small percentage of each class reaches the majors. . . .

Manoloff reports that Indians Director of Amateur Scouting Brad Grant admits that the Tribe is under "pressure to deliver with a pick in the top half of the first."

Perhaps because "[f]ans must go back to 1998, when CC Sabathia still had dots after the Cs as a kid from Vallejo (Calif.) High School, to find a first-rounder who has succeeded for any length of time in Cleveland. The Indians picked Jeremy Guthrie in the first round in 2002 but lost patience with him; he is a front-line starter for Baltimore. Since the 1988 selection of Charles Nagy, only Sabathia, Manny Ramirez (1991), Paul Shuey (1992) and Jaret Wright (1994) have made a legitimate impact for the Indians. Jeremy Sowers (2004) went 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts in 2006."

So . . . will Grant and the boys deliver for the home team today? Staaaaaaaay tuuuuuuuuned . . . for awhile.

* * *

In other Tribe news, R.I.P. Dick Jacobs. From the ABJ's Sheldon Ocker: For most of their 109-year existence in the American League, the Indians haven't been the object of much good fortune. When they've been good, they've earned every win. But even the Tribe gets lucky now and them. That happened when Dick Jacobs bought the franchise in 1986. Jacobs was smart, rich, had a knack for hiring competent people and was not weighed down with a demanding ego that drove him to micromanage the team and seek every ounce of credit. . . . Of course, it all turned out better than anyone could have expected. Jacobs twisted arms to get his ballpark, the Tribe went on to win five division championships and two pennants, the ballpark sold out for 455 consecutive games, and Jacobs made money. . . . Jacobs epitomized the idea that successful enterprises begin with good management from the very top. ''Because of who he was and the respect he could garner, Dick had the ability to make you better than you were,'' Hart said. ''He gave us confidence. He believed in us. He never second guessed. He was very much an encourager.''

***

In Cavs news . . . Is Charlie Villanueva the answer? If he's going to be, we suggest diverting that LeBron 2010 money to the Charlie Villanueva protein shake fund. (6'11, 230).

***

Finally, Brownies! Rich Passan points up the contrast between the Mangini and Crennel regimes: "Difference in Coaches is Night and Day . . . Mangini comes off as a relative mental giant . . . "

Your move, Coupon.

Happy Tuesday, everyone.

20 comments:

smittypop2 said...

A couple of comments....

A)I am still drunk from last night.

B)Fuck Boras!!!

C)Fuck Villaneuva and his twitter feed!!

D)WE NEED ARTEST AND SOME GOOD PLAYERS, NOT TOTAL GARBAGE.

E)That's all.

F)WV=buthsis

smittypop2 said...

PS Jim Thome was a 13th round draft pick and Mike Piazza was a 30th plus round draft pick. You can find hidden gems with any pick and the Indians have a really good scouting team. Don't be such a dick about the draft.

WV creativi

David Arnott said...

What about limited free agency for MLB players, with minor leaguers getting prescribed draft slot salaries?

Say the Nats take Strasburg. He gets 1 mil per year or whatever it is while he's in the minors. Within five years, the Nats have to bring him up to the majors, or else he becomes a minor league free agent (instead of the current six years). When they do, they have to offer him a MLB contract, and any other team can then see that, then decide whether or not to offer him a contract, themselves, but they can only offer once. The Nats would have the opportunity to match any MLB offer and keep that player, and if they don't, that player becomes like a Rule 5 pick who must stay on the new team's MLB roster all season for the salary they offered.

That's off the top of my head, so apologies if there's some perverse incentive in there that I'm missing. That way, teams get control over a player's minor league development, and then when he becomes a major league player, they have to pay him a free-er market value.

Cleveland Frowns said...

David, I don't think that solves the ultimate problem. If anything, it makes it easier for the Yankees and Red Sox, because they don't have to take the risk of spending the big money on a draft pick that doesn't end up panning out. They can sit back and wait for him to develop, then they can outbid the team that developed him.

Word: hollotio

Smitty: We don't question that good players are found in the draft! Just that it's almost impossible to get excited about it when it will take years and years for us to know who they are.

cannatar said...

On the broader issue of baseball economics, even if the players vs owners and small-revenue owners vs big-revenue owners issues could be resolved, there's a deeper conflict between what's good for the game and what's good for the business. I think it's clear that baseball would be more fair as a game if all the team competed with similar financial resources, but I'm not sure that would be best for MLB as a business. Unlike the NFL, MLB is much more of a local-interest sport than a national-interest sport. The NFL as an entity can make a lot of money when a storied franchise in Pittsburgh or Green Bay wins because people all over the country will watch. In baseball, so much of the overall revenue comes from 81 home games and 162 games on local television. The revenue potential is simply much higher in New York than Cleveland. If the Yankees win 95 games each of the next 5 years and the Indians win 70, the overall revenues for the two franchises combined will be much higher than if the Yankees win 70 and the Tribe 95. The Indians will never be able to charge the ticket prices the Yankees do. So, I think there's a strong economic incentive for MLB to keep things somewhat imbalanced.

On the other hand, some fans will be turned off by extreme imbalance and just stop watching MLB altogether, so that needs to be considered on the national level. But, I think that means something like the current revenue sharing system, or a very limited cap that would reign in the Yankees from spending so much more than even the next highest team, but I don't think the overall economics make sense to try to make all the payrolls roughly even.

Cleveland Frowns said...

cannatar, I think that's an excellent point, and really interesting . . . but find it hard to believe that the gains that would be made in restoring competitive balance to the game wouldn't offset this local effect.

cannatar said...

According to the numbers at mlbcontracts.blogspot.com, the average payroll this year is $92 million. There are 9 teams over $100 million. The Yankees are at $207; the Mets are second at $139. I think a very modest change like putting in a salary cap at $150 million (that would increase over time based on some agreed upon measure for baseball inflation) would reign in the extreme imbalance without affecting the overall economics much.

Fred Coupon said...

Mangini wowed the New York media before his first game and was great in press conferences during his first season. Then his 'process' kicked in, the team started losing many games and he became a clandestine turd. Enjoy, Cleveland!

coachie said...

good point cannotar, but do you assume that regions that love baseball will love it forever and that regions that don't like baseball will hate it forever? While no team can hope to approach Yankee money, there are plenty of dormant markets where sustained success on the field would translate into Elephant Dollars.

But then again, is there really competitive imbalance in MLB? "small market teams" (hate the term) such as the Twins and Padres have managed to put out competitive and frisky teams year after year, and all but 8 teams out of 30 have failed to make the playoffs this decade (Orioles, Jays, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Nats/'Spos, Reds and Pirates) while only the Sawx have managed to win more than one World Series this decade.

coachie said...

@smitty

Artest to the cavs would be dope. could they afford it tho?

smittypop2 said...

@coachie....I don't know if we can afford him and I don't care. We need the craziest man alive on this team!!! FTW if we get him!!

Biki said...

Artest and lebron play the same position. I think matt barnes is who we should get. Relatively cheap, he's long, can defend and is a solid 3point shooter.

I would love a ron ron - bron bron duo, and it would be sweet to have Queensbridge represented in cleve! Maybe in addition to Usher, we'll get Nas and Mobb Deep up in the Q!

I 've always liked his pressers even with the jets cuz he's def very smart but he's a lil too rough on the players and can't seem to get through to them the same way he's able to shine in his pressers. Heard more rumors of some of the players really resenting mangini already.

GO TRIBE!

Cleveland Frowns said...

Coupon delivers!

/+1

Cleveland Frowns said...

@Coachie:

So, the ceiling for small market teams is the Twins and Sadres? Who last won anything when? No competitive imbalance?

smittypop2 said...

To be fair the Rays were in the WORLD SERIES last year. I don't agree with the F'ing Yankees spending $200++ million and I hate those Aholes more than any team alive. Something needs to be done about that, but teams do have a chance if they scout right and draft well.

Fred Coupon said...

The aspect of the Yankees' payroll that goes unnoticed is not the all the money paid to players on the field, but the money paid to mistakes -Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano, etc- that other teams cannot afford to compensate for.

Cleveland Frowns said...

Coup again, FTW!

We should just change the name of this joint to "Coupon Frowns."

Nobody's saying the Twins, Rays, Sadrays can't get a little something from time to time. That's not the point. These teams just aren't playing the same game. Don't understand why baseball should mirror life in this way. Maybe it should, but nobody here (or anywhere as far as we know) has explained why.

coachie said...

Frownie; look again at the teams in the World Series this decade.

Cleveland Frowns said...

Yeah, what's your point? St. Louis is the only so-called small market that's won. Unless you want to count Arizona, but that's a pretty big market if you ask us, and if I remember correctly, their payroll was pretty large when they won.

And before that you have to go back to 90 and 91 for the Twins and Reds to say any real small market team won. (BTW, Miami is not a small market).

coachie said...

which is the problem with the definition of "small market." you can change the definition to fit almost any city.
very well, frownie, but what of the number of different teams in the world series? and the number of different teams in the playoffs?

How many teams begin the year with a legit chance to win the NBA crown? A handful. But would you say competitive imbalance is a problem in the NBA?