If I Did It (Picked the Buckeyes to Cover v. USC): Confessions of an O-H-i-omer

41-14, 38-24, 35-3, 24-21, the numbers on everyone's mind as we approach yet another enormous Game Day for the Buckeyes with the USC Trojans in town for an evening tilt in The Shoe.  "Redemptiageddon IV," an apt description by the folks at esteemed Buckeye press Eleven Warriors for this one.  But whatever the need for redemption, and whatever the problems with those numbers and these Buckeyes, we suppose Ohio ought to at least be thankful to be involved in yet another match with such enormous implications, and for the opportunity to consider how many other programs have been so involved in so many consecutive seasons;

FACT:  You can NOT spell Trojans without O.J.

Of course, scant consolation if the Buckeyes are embarrassed yet again tonight, as so many expect (80% of the action at Sportsbook.com is on the Trojans to win by at least 7 points).  And we can't argue that a trend hasn't emerged that justifies this expectation.

So we'll start with what bothers us the most about this match, what we suppose is the most significant force behind this trend, which is just the weather. We wrote about this going into last season's BCS title game, tipped off by an excellent post by our friend Brendan Bowers, now of Cavaliers outpost Stepien Rules, and we're not the only ones to notice that NCAA football has come to be dominated by schools in more temperate climates. Let's look again at the list of our last ten, now let's make it eleven National Champions:

2008 - Florida
2007 - LSU
2006 - Florida
2005 - Texas
2004 - USC
2003 - LSU
2002 - OSU
2001- Miami
2000 - Oklahoma
1999 - Florida State
1998 - Tennessee

Suppose that does make Ohio State the best "Cold Weather Program" in college football, no?  And how about what that list would look like if Maurice Clarett didn't make the best American football play in American football history in Tempe in January 2003? 

Probably the scariest thing about this for folks who think that it can't bode well for American football, the State of Ohio, or humanity generally, if college football comes to only be played well by programs from temperate climates is that the emergence of this trend makes far too much sense. Where to go to college?  A hard enough question for any American, let alone for the top American football recruit who can go anywhere.  All else equal, why wouldn't we expect any eighteen-year old to go where he might see more friendly flesh?  Who'd suppose with a straight face that the American eighteen-year old male would be more influenced by any other factor?  (All else equal, again, of course.) 

Here, Buckeye fan might at least take consolation in that it's not that S.peed E.quals C.hampionships, as the rub from Dixie would have it.  It's the S.kin that E.quals the C.hampionships.  A far less troubling proposition for Buckeye/Big Ten fan, for sure. 

As technology continues to make the market for American football scholarships and recruits more efficient with each passing season, it should surprise no one that the programs in Florida, Los Angeles, and the like continue to rise.  It's just nature.  It's the best argument there could be that these athletes should be paid for their efforts, that being the only way we suppose the warm field advantage may be adjusted for to any significant degree.  But until this happens, what is Buckeye fan?  What is Big Ten fan to do?  Because waiting's just no option.   

As it's not an option for us to lay the points with the Trojans tonight, despite what science says.  So here is how we'll try to get around science today as we hope for the best. 

We'll start by remembering that it's never easy.  As good as the reasons are that explain Trojan dominance, and the Buckeye fall from grace, we at least know that these aren't the reasons why so many will lay the points tonight with such gusto.  So here we'll tell ourselves that despite our certainties regarding the connection between the malignant effects of the NCAA cartel, the natural effects of friendly flesh exposed, and the emergence of programs from temperate climes, that these effects have been bought and paid for in other respects.  Like surface appearances.  And plain college football hate, then add that Big Ten hate and the Buckeye hate.  And don't forget the Buckeye doubt.  And the attachment of all of it to what happened last: something along the lines of the tendency to assume that because the coin came up "heads" the last five times, that it's any more or less likely to do the same the next. 

Then, all the powerful "micro" reasons we might suppose that the Buckeyes are undersold this weekend. 

Start with the brutal treatment that Our Only Chance, Terrelle Pryor, received this week for his compassionate and grotesquely-now-infamous show of support for Michael Vick last weekend. 

There's no need for us to go into the details here, other than to say that Young Pryor is the latest biggest victim of those who'd pretend that animal husbandry isn't a complicated subject.  The worst aspect here is what's been made of his postgame locker-room quote, in explanation of his decision to write VICK under his eye before last week's game: 

“Not everybody’s the perfect person in the world. I mean . . . everyone . . . . kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever. I think that people need a second chance, and I’ve always looked up to Mike Vick, and I always will.”

EVERYONE KILLS PEOPLE?  HOW COULD HE SAY THAT? 

Mariotti wants a clarification, but he knows as well as anyone else what Pryor was really saying.

Along the same lines, just how much was the outcome of last week's game really in doubt?  It's enough to note here that Tressel's welcome of last week's visitors was unprecedented, that Coach Teflon is of the build-up-don't-tear-down persuasion generally.

Then there's the cocksure freshman quarterback at the helm for the Trojans tonight.  We'll just say, read what Jerod says about him, then ask, has such a green lad ever come through in a place like this?  (He didn't complete a pass longer than 15 yards last week.) 

Yet so many are so sure.  And that's what we'll cling to going in.  That it just can't be right, that the people of a place where, we're told, two (TWO!) NFL teams that were in the City (AT THE SAME TIME) have been gone for 15 years, and nobody's heard anyone complain about it, that these people should continue to lord a supposed American football superiority over Ohioans?  Just not right. 

So, nature, science, ... everybody knows. But they should also know, stuff happens (even to USC Trojans!). And it could happen in so many beautiful, phenomenal, spectacular, and at least semi-apocalyptic ways.

So even if the Bucks are stuck with the harpoon early, as the esteemed Mr. Hall suggests* . . . what else can we do but hope they give the Trojans a decent ride?

The Pick:  Buckeyes  +7 over USC (4 units).

As for the rest, we're more than comfortable relying on the efforts of the Cheddar Bay Task Force. 

Notre Dame -3 over Michigan (4 units), for the reasons so stated by "formerly p." 

Minnesota -3 over Air Force (2 units), as kylmra just can't be wrong about. 

And of course, this here in Columbus was the only thing that could have kept us away from the opening of the Zips new stadium today (we'll be there next week, for sure.), and if we didn't lay the points with our Zips today, -27 over Morgan State (2 units).  (27 points?  Have the Zips ever been such favorites?) 

Finally, we'll take Tennessee -11 over UCLA (2 units) because it only seems right to have an SEC squad on our ticket with Spencer in town.

So, we're off into the soup.  Back for Brownies tomorrow, to be sure.  We'll do our best to keep you posted in the meantime...or just check Spencer's Twitter.  You'd surely do best to do that, actually.  And parlay everthing today with the Brownies tomorrow.....

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

* You are going to want to learn about what a "Nantucket Sleighride" is.