Las Vegas Hilton Sets Total Browns 2012 Wins at 4.5, the Lowest in the NFL

by Cleveland Frowns on June 18, 2012

For the second time this off-season, Mike Holmgren gave a press conference in which he promised that the Browns would take a “good jump” next season in terms of wins and losses. And for the second time this off-season, Vegas has followed up with a swift rebuke.

About three weeks ago, Cantor Gaming — the same outfit that released early regular season lines that have the Browns installed as underdogs in every game they’ll play next season — set the Browns’ 2012 win total at 5.5, the lowest in the league along with the Colts and Jaguars. But over the weekend, the Las Vegas Hilton (LVH) Super Book lowered the bar, setting the Browns at 4.5, just below the Colts and Jags at 5, and the lowest win total for any team in the league.

“Despite the two other books [Cantor and MGM] currently shaping the market, the LVH went their own way with some pretty different numbers,” says Micah Roberts of VegasInsider.com. “They know exactly who they want their first bets taken to be on and they’ll get it.”

So in the third season of Mike Holmgren’s rebuild plan, the leading sports book in Vegas is aggressively wagering on things being worse than they were in the first two years. Everyone should at least be able to agree that it’s weird that Dawg Pound Mike hasn’t called for another protest yet. You can review all the totals from the three major books at the VegasInsider.com post linked above and here, including from MGM (who’s got the Browns with the Vikings at 6 wins, right above the Colts and Jags at 5) and let us know who you got and why in the comments.

In other news, it’s never not fun when a member of Colt McCoy’s family deletes a tweet about the Browns, and big ups to the PD’s Bud Shaw for getting a good idea for a column on the Jim Brown/Holmgren rift.

Finally, another thing we should all be able to agree on is that Kevin Durant is now Kevin Dur-choke after last night’s fourth quarter. Totally despicable, though not as bad as some other people, since Durant re-signed with the Thunder after they managed to surround him with three other top-5 draft picks/All-Star types. Have to appreciate one who knows his place. Still, what a choker.

ALRIGHT, should be another fun week here as always. Hope everyone’s is off to a decent start.

  • Bryan

    I continue to want LBJ to lose and continue to think he will fail if OKC would force him to shoot jumpers. BUT it is outrageous that some people think Durant is better than LBJ. Durant is a scoring machine, but his defense is atrocious. He is far from a complete player. LBJ is just such a beast in all aspects of the game. His only weakness is his wildly erratic jumper.

    What is driving me nuts is that for the last 5 games somehow Doc Rivers and now Scotty Brooks are playing him man-to-man for substantial chunks of the game. Makes no sense. Someone please send Brooks video of the 2007 Finals, the 2010 Boston series, or the 2011 Finals. LBJ still has an obvious hole in his game. Please expose it.

    • Jim

      I think the game plan is to let Lebron get his points and then shut down the second and/or third option. It has worked well times in the past. However, when Shane Battier decides to show up, the strategy begins to back-fire.
      Your point on forcing the Heat to shoot jumpers is valid; last night they shot 18% outside of the paint. The problem, of course, is that LBJ and Wade are two of the best at getting into the paint.
      That being the case, one would think Ibaka played 35+ minutes. Yet he got less run than Fisher did. I also wouldn’t have taken out both Durant and Westbrook at the same time when the Thunder were up 10 in the closing minutes of the 3rd. While Durant had picked up his fourth foul, Westbrook only had one. You need one of those guys out there to create offense.

      • NeedsFoodBadly

        yeah, pretty inexplicable. The James vs. Durant stuff is a red herring and irrelevant, because basketball is a team sport. Brooks’ rotations have been very wonky and make little sense to me.

        • ClevelandFrowns

          Dur-choke, guys. Kevin Dur-choke.

          • NeedsFoodBadly

            Kevin Dur-getafoulifwithintenfeetofLeBronJames, but then we’d have to change the last names of EVERYONE on the Thunder.

          • Petefranklin

            No worries the comish has sent in the A team refs for game 4 and the A stands for AWAY!

          • Believelander

            Once he’s laid a basket of eggs in big playoff games, we can have this conversation.

      • BIKI024

        2 words: Scott Brooks. he was a weasel when he played for the Cavs and he still is a weasel.. terrible, TERRIBLE coaching and substitutions.. also, KD should not be guarding LBJ

        • Petefranklin

          Yeah the foul trouble is killing KD, they need to zone up more.Or hybird zone the D in disguise.

  • ChuckKoz

    well, if KD spends the next 5 years close to a title but keeps missing freethrows at key moments of the 4th quarter or doing other inexcplicable things, that might be a fair assessment. we should check back in about 5 years.

    meanwhile, awful move by Scott Brooks at the end of the 3rd when he sat Westbrook (when KD got his 4th foul). They were up 10 then faced a 15 point swing.

    And then LB took total advantage in the 4th. Very impressive.

    If MIA can pull this off, it would be hard to not be happy for everyone except Wade. That guy still looks/acts like the biggest a-hole.

    • ClevelandFrowns

      “if KD spends the next 5 years close to a title but keeps missing freethrows at key moments of the 4th quarter or doing other inexcplicable things, that might be a fair assessment. we should check back in about 5 years.”

      It’s the Roberto Alomar Fallacy. The guy got dinged for making errors on balls that nobody else would get close to. Just like LeBron is punished for carrying Gilbert’s pile of junk as far as he did. If anyone could even picture KD carrying the same bunch to such heights (instead of having been surrounded with three other top five picks and a first-round all-world shotblocker, etc., the way he’s been), your comment might begin to read like something not written by someone with a four-hour-plus-plus LeBron murder swell.

      • Jim

        So how exactly is it “Gilbert’s pile of junk?” I don’t recall Dan Gilbert drafting Luke Jackson. I don’t recall Dan Gilbert letting Carlos Boozer out of his contract on nothing more then a wink and a handshake. I don’t recall Dan Gilbert trading a first round pick for Jiri Welsh. I don’t recall Dan Gilbert forcing Danny Ferry to sign Donyell Marshall, Damon Jones, or Larry Hughes to large contracts.
        The Lebron-era Cavaliers made some bad player personnel decisions (and a few good ones considering the cap constraints they operated under after maxing out the team), many of which were made prior to Dan Gilbert owning the team, and all of which were made with Lebron’s blessings (which is another issue and goes to the whole “building with” as opposed to “building around” meme that it took years for the Cavs to apparently understand). That being said, it’s not accurate to label it as “Gilbert’ pile of junk.”

        • ClevelandFrowns

          “So how exactly is it ‘Gilbert’s pile of junk?’”

          The theory is that once Gilbert bought the franchise (only a year-and-a-half after the Cavs won the LeBron lottery), he became responsible for it. Novel, I know, but I’m sticking with it.

          • ChuckKoz

            but the team captain and leader was not responsible for the on court results.

            novel, i know, but he’s sticking with it.

          • NeedsFoodBadly

            HE WAS JUST A KIDDDDDDDDD (is just a kid??)

            LeBron also could’ve tried a little to get some folks to come join him to play ball up in Cleveland (like, I heard one guy did that in Florida once), but it just gets so darn COLD up there in the winter.

          • bupalos

            >>>but it just gets so darn COLD up there in the winter.>>>>

            It’s not Akron, that’s for sure.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Agreed that the captain and team leader was fully responsible for lifting the pile of junk to such heights.

          • Jim

            Right. So after the Cavs took Luke Jackson with their last lottery pick in the Lebron era and after they let their best player of the Lebron era not named Lebron James walk for nothing. Got it.

          • Believelander

            It’s novel, and also reductionist and silly. I watch the continuous glossing over of the true fact of science that Gilbert inhereted a franchise that Gund left with
            a) LeBron
            b) a hot, sticky, nasty, wet, filthy, dirty, sexually promiscuous mess
            …created a unique and difficult situation for a front office. There has perhaps never been a team with as empty of a cupboard that has come into possession of a player of such talent, and LeBron’s talent was more than enough to immediately destroy the Cavs’ hopes of a high lottery pick. And in the NBA, what you inherit really matters. Even in the MLB, you can unload overpriced assets for teams looking for a little extra juice – see Wood, Kerry -> New York Yankees. This can help you alleviate salary nightmares. In the NFL, contracts aren’t fully guaranteed except when teams like the Redskins pull an Albert HaynesDerp.
            So the hot pile of junk you so lovingly refer to the squad you rooted for for years was an inherited mess, and as much as you want to place the onus for that fully on Dan Gilbert, LeBron carries weight too, and so does Gordon Gund. Believe it or not, if LeBron had convinced Chris Bosh and/or Dwyane Wade to play for the Cavs, we could have made the contracts happen, and then it wouldn’t have been a hot pile of junk anymore, would it have been? But clearly he didn’t love his hometown -that- much.
            That said, there are a number of well respected basketball minds who feel strongly that the Cavs of 09 and 10 were better teams than the Heat of 11 and 12, and that the narrative that LeBron had ‘no help in Cleveland’ is a pile of crap.
            Furthermore, many who don’t write for ESPN note that the assertion that LeBron needed to leave Cleveland to get help is a pile of junk. It’s a hollow argument.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            “there are a number of well respected basketball minds who feel strongly that the Cavs of 09 and 10 were better teams than the Heat of 11 and 12, and that the narrative that LeBron had ‘no help in Cleveland’ is a pile of crap.”

            Really? Who? Where?

            “Furthermore, many who don’t write for ESPN note that the assertion that LeBron needed to leave Cleveland to get help is a pile of junk.”

            Who who who? Where where where?

          • BIKI024

            the Cavs of 09 and 10 were better teams than the Heat of 11 and 12. i assume you mean sans Wade and Bosh? and how do you know how if Lebron had tried to convince them into coming to Cleveland or not? it seems to me that neither Bosh nor Wade were very keen on coming to Cleveland, even though Wade has been to Akron a bunch over the years, I think he clearly prefers Dade County to Summit County, not just for quality of life but for tax purposes as well..

          • Believelander

            In other LeBron stuff, I wasn’t around the other day so I just wanted to mention that this is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen, besides Republican party rallies:
            http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Wait-carry-the-one-hmm.jpg
            Verified: ESPN is stupid.
            Edit: Actually, ESPN is smart. They spoon feed American sports-sheep this junk and these guys lap it up.

            If he had gone 8-18 in the first 3 for 21 points and 3-6 in the 4th for 9 points, ESPN would be talking about how he’s a stone cold killer (suck it Kobe!)

      • ChuckKoz

        i really dont know what to say at this point that furthers this fairly pointless argument.

        i will just note that if roberto alomar lets a ball go b/w his legs in the world series, its worth serious criticism. its terrible and pretty unexcusable at that moment (especially in sports, where those championship performances define a legacy), even if he did all sorts of other great things. and arguably, its LESS acceptable for him to allow the ball to go b/w his legs (although i see your point, too).

        and if Roberto Alomar decided he was going to hustle at the same level in say a Game 6 against a team from Boston, the lack of effort would not be excusable simply because “well, he must have realized his shitty owner didnt give me more good players so why try anymore”

        • ChuckKoz

          and all my point really goes to is: its absurd to act like LB is above criticism for his failures to win a title. and sorry, one post citing his failure last year doesn’t count for much – especially when you spent the prior 6 months guaranteeing he would win and there was no conceivable way they would lose.

          in reality, it is people like you that never have a bad thing to say about his game that probably do more to ignite the very media storm (the 4th quarter failures) you complain about. if so many people didnt act like he was infallible, perhaps it wouldnt be such a shock when he didn’t deliver.

          bottom line, you are taking a position that is inconceivable. this is sports. you legacy is defined by titles. and its his 9th year. it is entirely reasonable to call into question his legacy when/if he continues to fail.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Your priapism is causing you to badly misunderstand/misstate my position. I’ve never questioned LeBron’s legacy as greatest player to never win a title. I’ve never said he was perfect, either. He was bad in last year’s Finals and was bad in that last series for the Cavs against Boston … two playoff series out of 20 or so in which he plainly underperformed. I’ve never denied that. I just don’t attribute it to a fatal and unforgivably loathsome character flaw like you and so many others do.

          • ChuckKoz

            well you are apparently also misunderstanding/stating my position, because i am dont think he has any significant character flaw. sure, like most cavs fans, i bashed the guy for a while after the decision. however, for a long time (both before and after) my criticism of him have been on court criticisms, coupled with enjoying being right in predicting his losses.

            and i am pretty sure that most of the anybody but LB fans (like 85% of them) don’t have this evil view of him. they just decided to go against him as the “bad guy” in the NBA. which, bear in mind: HE EMBRACED last year. so you can feel free to keep acting like anybody but LB fans are so disgusting, but its really no different than why someone roots for or against the Cowboys or something like that.

            and i didn’t know what priapism was until i had to google it. so thanks for that.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            “Its really no different than why someone roots for or against the Cowboys or something like that.”

            Chuck, sorry, but this is completely untrue, and ridiculous. Wake me up when Clevelanders start making shirts in support of teams that are playing the Cowboys (and/or when stories about the stupid shirts end up leading the 11:00 news).

          • ChuckKoz

            i didn’t mean for clevelanders only, i meant nationally. for clevelanders it would be like rooting against anything Pittsburgh. or anything Denver.

            but take a team like the Cowboys/Yankees (LBs 2 favs) or the Raiders or the Lakers. a majority of people nationally have some opinion about them. very passionate one way or the other.

            well, LB turned the Heat into that type of team where there are strong opinions either way.

            so, again, now rooting for against the Heat is “really no different than when someone roots for or against the Cowboys or something like that”

        • ClevelandFrowns

          This isn’t Roberto Alomar letting a ball go b/w his legs, it’s Roberto Alomar sprouting wings and/or a jet pack to get to a ball that nobody else on the planet would come close to, then just missing it.

          But if he did let a ball go b/w his legs because he was exhausted from all the extraordinary flying around he had to do earlier, that would be relevant, too.

          • ChuckKoz

            the things we saw last year against Dallas was the equivalent of the ball going b/w the legs. it was ridiculous.

            i know my points about other series (orlando/boston) can come with a reasonable rebuttal, but if you cannot admit anything about that dallas performance being uniquely bad, we cannot have an honest discussion.

          • Believelander

            The contradictory logic of “LeBron is a SuperMegaZordAthlete who can Fly and Shoot Lasers” (fairly true) and “LeBron can’t finish out series because he’s too tired even though there’s minimum a full day of rest between every NBA playoff game” (?) never ceases to amuse me.
            If my fat patootie had 45 hours between basketball games, I would be 100% for every one. Of course I’d be 32% at the end of the first quarter, but I’m not LeBron.
            Is he superman or not? Or is there some mystical ‘toll’ of lethargy that must be paid for going out there and being great?
            Whether or not one supports the idea that LeBron has to “do it all”, there’s a long litany of amazing players who played JUST AS HARD regardless of whether their teams were better than LeBron’s teams, drove the hoop, got fouled hard, and kept pounding away with 110% of whatever they had left, whatever the down and distance.

          • BIKI024

            if there is a long litany of amazing players who had to carry their teams as much as LBJ did in Cleveland, you can surely name a handful, or even ONE who has won a championship with a team on his back.

          • NeedsFoodBadly

            I’ll name two: Air Bud and Teen Wolf.

            Boom, Simmons’d.

      • Steve

        And somehow that pile of junk was part of one of the most dominant teams in the history of the league. They lost in the postseason because Orlando shot out of their minds for a week straight, and Lebron laid an egg against Boston. Not because the supporting cast wasn’t up to snuff.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    i’ve found the re-designed banner for frowns if the heat win the series.

  • Beeej
  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    cheddar teaser! win-loss lines for all college football teams. (thanks @fsohiozjackson )

    yes please
    1. western michigan over 8.5: the legend of alex carder
    2. bowling green over 7
    3. cincy under 7.5: the devastating loss of browns 3rd pick john hughes will be felt.

    rufkm
    4. arky st over 6.5: just keep malzahn’s wife away from the players.
    5. wku over 6: willie taggart — hailing from two generations of the harbaugh coaching tree — starts 0-4 last year, wins 7 out of next 8. the loss is at baton rouge (and score is 14-7 at half). anyway, yeah. willie taggart. hop on the over.

    • Art_Brosef

      Love love love for Arky St going over the 6.5.

    • GrandRapidsRustlers

      Love Western…obviously.

      Also love Kansas at 3.5 – Weis plus Crist will push them over the top.

      Colorado at 4 is absurd…I know I am a fan but give me a break. They could be 6-0 before running into the difficult part of the schedule.

      Western Kentucky is something you probably want a make a play on today because that has to be a mistake.

  • Beeej

    If I were a betting man taking the Browns over 4.5 and under 6 might seem like a good idea, but then again, I probably don’t know what I’m talking about.

    • Petefranklin

      You are a smart man, Ive already had a few coctaill or I’d be on my way to MGM right now for a dime on under. Figure out how to middle it later.

  • Believelander

    Not that I ever want to defend or give Mike Holmgren credit until he actually accomplishes something in Cleveland besides eating a sandwich, but isn’t the leading sports book in Vegas actually aggressively wagering on half of the bettors at large perceiving the Browns’ situation to be worse, and half the bettors perceiving it to be better? Wouldn’t they really not give two hoots about how they think the Browns are actually going to do if they can get even money on both sides of the guess?

    • Petefranklin

      Not half the bettors, half the $$$$. And some books do take a stance that they like with uneven $$ on one side, but usually its a relatively small amount.

      • Believelander

        Er yeah that’s what I meant. And in order to hedge against potentially losing money on a given wager, they should keep the money within 2.38% of even money (e.g, no larger of a gulf than 47.62/52.38 on either side of the wager). That’s based on my understanding that they take an extra 10% fee from the losers. 47.62*1.1= 52.382. Therefore if the 52% won they’d break even, and if the 47% won they’d profit neatly cashing in at a value of 9.998% of the total pool. Before they pay people and keep the lights on and stuff.
        Personally I’d try to be at 50/50 on every bet. You’re guaranteed a 5% payout of the total betted money at a 10% surcharge to the losers. This margin profit is pretty much how roulette works – people will have big wins and losses on all those big payouts, but the odds/evens and red/black are the bread and butter for the casino, because the green 0/00. With a dead even distribution of bets on the 2-1s over, say, 10000 bets, the house should win 5.2% of the money (2 green 0/00 in 38 slots), pay out one side 47.4%, and the other 47.4%.
        Makes me want to go into the gambling business..

        • Petefranklin

          Sometimes they have to take a stance or risk getting middled to death by the wiseguys. The SA OKC series was a case in point. EVERYONE (public and sharp) loved the Spurs and the books were going to get absolutely clobbered if the Spurs won. True odds(reasonable price) were about SA -130 or so, and the real odds got hammered from -140 or -150 up to -200 or more. I posted that frownie should not bet the Spurs at that price, not because they couldn’t win, but because they were so overpriced! I learned after game 4 with a series tied 2-2 and home court somewhat dwindled that the books were overwhelmed with SA $$$ on futures and series and that they were overvaluing the Spurs even more than before(still -200 or more). The books won again, now they have taken heavy Heat action before game 3, we’ll see but I’m on OKC tonight (my largest of the season) Knowing the commish loves this shit(high ratings)

  • BIKI024

    WHAT A LOCK! we will definitely win at least 5, my prediction is 7..

    • Believelander

      I agree, unless they trot out the “no way do we win this division with a rookie QB” B-train with a philosophy of playing for next season by seasoning their cornucopia of youth (best thing Heckert has done) and getting good draft position.
      However, with the current political climate in Cleveland, I don’t think this will happen. I personally agree with you that I think the Browns will win 7 games this season.

      • Petefranklin

        Please list the games and I’ll spot you the 2 vs. the bungles. Remember the actual game lines are sharper at this time than season win totals.5 wins max.

  • Petefranklin

    All right so I drive to the LVH then the MGM this afternoon. LVH had browns 4.5 over -150 then MGM was 5.5 over +130. Twas too good to be true(the middle).Oh well I guess I was sleeping and I brought my D+ game.There was probably only one or two bets on the Clowns under 6 at that price. I missed it!

  • Believelander

    The new comment format is terribru on a Droid.

    • Beeej

      and Firefox

  • Believelander

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