Pro Football Talk Pre-Season Rankings: Browns Worst in the NFL

by Cleveland Frowns on July 10, 2012

Which isn’t very surprising given the Vegas sportsbooks’ market-based expectations for the 2012 Browns. But it does give us another excuse to entertain the idea, frequently floated in the comments sections of pre-season rankings posts like the one at Pro Football Talk, that the Browns won’t be as bad as the experts think.

To this end, we’ve prepared a pair of graphs in an attempt to illustrate a factor that should be especially significant in the formation of these expert opinions, especially since it’s a quarterback’s league: The quality of quarterbacks faced by the Browns in 2011, and the quality of the quarterbacks expected to be faced in 2012.

Here’s 2011:

And here’s 2012:

You might fairly argue with some specifics in the rankings here, but it’s beyond dispute that the Browns didn’t beat a team with a quarterback any better than Chad Henne in 2011. How much will Trent Richardson, Mitchell Schwartz, and a rookie quarterback move the green box with Phil Taylor out for a good chunk of the season, and with no meaningful upgrades in the secondary nor in an aging linebacker corps?

—————

In other news, Dwight Howard’s agent Dan Fegan could probably use a few pointers from Bob LaMonte. Terry Pluto notes that Fegan is also the agent for Kris Humphries, subject of trade rumors involving Howard and the Cavaliers. “The agent has said Humphries doesn’t want a one-year deal,” Pluto says. “But just think if a one-year deal is what it takes to move Howard to the Nets. Suddenly, the agent has two players who want two different things.”

Also via Pluto, Eddie Sefko in the Dallas Morning News on why the Mavericks were glad to take three draft picks in exchange for the one the Cavs used to pick Tyler Zeller:

They turned one middle-of-the-first-round pick into three selections, all of them in the top 35, in a year when numerous collegians that could have declared for the draft last year didn’t because of the NBA lockout.

That made this draft more fertile. As owner Mark Cuban said: “We felt like there were a lot of second-rounders who have first-round talent this year.”

Finally, mo_by_dick posted this in the comments here yesterday, a good look via SB Nation at how Kyrie Irving didn’t make the USA basketball team.

We’ll be back tomorrow or Thursday with an important announcement. Hope everyone has a decent go of it in the meantime.

  • acto

    “Important announcement”?
    Let the speculation begin!
    Frownie is buying 40 season tickets and inviting us all to join him.
    Frownie and p_4 are getting married.
    Frownie just found out he is Dan Gilbert’s illegitimate son.
    Biki is really Lebron James posting to try to salvage his image back home.

    Please, everyone join in and help me out here.

    • GrandRapidsRustlers

      Red Lobster/Sportsbook Franchise.

      Book it.

      • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

        and new cheddar bay mascot.

        • ClevelandFrowns

          !!!!!!!!!

    • mo_by_dick

      Cheddar Bay expanded to include Olympic track & field, swimming, and all lifting events.

    • CleveLandThatILove

      I hope it’s what I hope it is.

    • ClevelandFrowns

      WRONG.

    • http://twitter.com/cpmack Chris M

      Frowns is now the head of the McLaughlin group.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sdVx5gQz6w

    • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki
  • Bryan

    Good analysis Frowns. Though I wouldn’t want you to overlook the fact that our wins over the 4 terrible QBs last year all could have been losses!! Especially the Jacksonville game.

    In the spirit of optimism, though, I think the big X-factor this year is Smokin’ Weeden. Even after all of the pot shots thrown his way, I still think most people don’t realize just how bad Colt McCoy is as an NFL QB. I think his horrendous arm strength limited the plays we could call, allowed defenses to ignore most of the field beyond 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, and thereby crippled our running game and deep passing game. If Weeden plays well as a rookie (ala Newton and Dalton last year), I think his arm strength COULD allow our offensive could be light years better. That said, if Weeden struggles, we will certainly be terrible.

    • p_forever

      i really EXACTLY how awful colt mccoy was (and i’m sure remains), but i always appreciate when others notice too.

      i hope weeden is light years better. but even just plain “better” will be nice.

    • BIKI024

      a very good running back helps a struggling QB as well, not to mention a well balanced offensive line, which it finally seems we have.

      • Bryan

        I am in the Jim Brown camp on Richardson – I think the guy could be a really special back, but I think he is a system guy who needs a good QB and passing attack to excel (ala Emmit Smith). I don’t think Richardson is good enough to single-handedly carry the team and overcome poor QB play, which is why I see Weeden as the key. If Weeden is solid, Richardson will thrive, and the system will come together.

        • BIKI024

          come on bro, the guy is tough as nails to bring down, the name of the game is to tackle and strip, and he is hard to bring down and almost never fumbles. that’s how you wear a defense down and open things up for even an average QB, but our guy finally has a rocket, so it should be fun.

          Trent Richardson’s Sport Science: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7338531

          • Bryan

            I hope you are right. I love his personality. Really rooting for him. I just don’t think he can thrive if we have a terrible QB again.

    • ClevelandFrowns

      Even if Weeden could play as well as Dalton (the idea that he could do anything like what Newton did is a non-starter), and the offense is twice as good, I think there’s a better chance that this defense is genuinely horrible.

      That said, I don’t think Weeden as good as Dalton, and doesn’t have anything close to the weapons that Dalton had to play with his rookie year.

      • BIKI024

        re: defense genuinely horrible. we’ve got some pretty good talent in each line of the defense. we have 2 former HC’s on the defensive staff, 3 former DC’s, 2 former Coach of the Years. i think we’ll have a decent game plan every game, even against all these Big Bad QB’s we have to play. (hopefully the offense helps the guys out a bit.) Getting Ward and Benard back, and having another year and offseason to gel, I think we should be just fine, barring any significant injuries of course.

        • ClevelandFrowns

          Glad you’re excited about Dick Jauron and Ray Rhodes, Superfan. This one is going in the file.

          • BIKI024

            BRING BACK ROB RYAN! derp

            experience in teaching and coaching for as many years as they have can’t be all that bad of a thing.

          • BIKI024

            they are well-respected coaches with a ridiculous amount of experience coaching and playing in the NFL. the players all seem to like them a lot, but yeah, I’m a Superfan for being excited about having 2 former NFL Coach of the Year’s on our staff.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Well you’re a lot more excited about having those former NFL Coach of the Years on staff than the teams that they won those awards with, so you have that going for you.

          • BIKI024

            really, i have about a dozen of my friends in Chicago who would disagree with you. but sure, coaching experience is overrated.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Dick Jauron was 35-45 in five seasons as head coach in Chicago, made it to one playoff game, and got blown away in it, at home, 33-19. Take away that one playoff season and he averaged 5.5 wins and 10.5 losses in the other four years. If you have even two friends who think he got a raw deal in five seasons there, let alone a dozen such friends, I’ll eat my face.

            There are responsibilities here, Biki. If you don’t get me affidavits from two of these people by the end of the week you’ll be banned from commenting on Browns posts for the whole preseason. I’m serious. “A dozen of your friends in Chicago.” My word.

          • BIKI024

            just like you’d eat your face if the Steelers went to the SB?

          • ClevelandFrowns

            No, because that was a prediction about a future event that had more to do with Peter King writing a stupid column about a loathsome pack of sociopaths (that happened to contain a luckily accurate prediction) than anything else. This is about you telling brazen lies about facts as they currently exist now so it’s a lot more serious.

            Bring two of these dozen Chicago friends of yours here or you’re done until September.

          • BIKI024

            Brazen lies? i didn’t say they were voting in him to the hall of fame. but he’s an affable guy, they liked him and felt he got a bad rap overall. and he had a very good rep with the players as being a good teacher, especially for guys in the secondary. 25+ years in the NFL and being a Pro Bowl DB in league might teach a guy a thing or 2 about teaching kids how to defend.

          • Petefranklin

            I guarantee that Biki’s alledged dozen Bears fans mourned the firing of Ray Rhodes in Green Bay. As a head coach that guy was worse than Crennel and Shurmer together. But as a defensive coach I can respect him, he did manage to get a head coaching job without the aid of Bob Lamonte. I like Jauron also but that doesn’t mean that this defense wont totally suck when the game is on the line. The talent behind 2 good linemen is pretty weak, but maybe they can work some miracles.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Add “Biki’s Alleged Dozen Bears Fans” to the list of approved fantasy team names. There was another good one last week but I can’t remember it.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Biki,
            Please do not take this as an insult, I wish that I was watching the smoke rise through rose colored glasses as well, also you obviously are an intelligent and analytical man, but….
            Every preseason; in every sport you become a nine year old kid again.

            I wish that optimistic nine year old was still alive in all of us.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Meth, Acto. Try meth.

          • http://twitter.com/cpmack Chris M

            The three Bears fans in Chicago that I know openly laughed at me when they heard we hired Jauron. I think Biki’s dozen are a figment of his imagination.

            Pics of said Bears fans or it never happened.

        • Petefranklin

          Thats barring any significant injuries on one whole side of the ball, aint gonna happen. Last years first rounder is probably out for the season, thats # 1. Fujita probably #2 and S Brown is an old old man. Thats just capping some probable injuries, who knows what random injuries happen during the season.

      • BIKI024

        Bleacher Report has a defensive preseason rankings as well, have the Brownies ranked 11th for 2012. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1141269-power-ranking-all-32-nfl-defenses/page/2

        that may be a bit high, but I think there we’ll be somewhere between 11 and 20, not sure that is considered “genuinely horrible”

        • ClevelandFrowns

          This one can go in the file, too.

        • Petefranklin

          If this D ranks 11-20 either the Clowns go 8-8 or the offense ranks bottom 5…again.

          • BIKI024

            i really don’t see how that happens. our line should be solid, we have a very solid RB grouping, and of course it seems like we have a pretty decent QB. i guess it all depends on how many Pick 6′s he throws

          • Petefranklin

            Cmon Bik I know you read this site but do you really read it? It was widely accepted around these parts that no team even bothered to game plan against the Browns last year because they didn’t have to. You know handicapping, it’s called the context of the game. Sometimes a team just wants to get off the field with a victory and knows they will, therefore not exerting any unneeded energy. 2 TD’s and a FG against the 2011 Clowns equaled victory which is why the defense seemed servicible to the casual Browns fan. I look for any improvement on offense to be negated by a lousy overpaid(Patterson) secondary.

          • BIKI024

            What can I say, I’m a glass half empty guy. Besides, it’s entertainment, it’s a game, i don’t take it so seriously. It is what it is.

          • BIKI024

            i guess we’ll agree to disagree. i am superfan afterall. until we lose our 12th game, i will hold out hope for victory

  • GrandRapidsRustlers

    I am going to spend the rest of the day wishing Matt Cassel just a little bit lower…

    • ClevelandFrowns

      OK, you do that and I’ll keep thinking the TDs. If Gil keeps up the good work on daiquiri duty, somebody asks Pat, and nobody tells Weeds, we should have all the bases covered for a pretty good jump in 2012. No excuses.

  • mo_by_dick

    If I’m reading these graphs correctly, I watched a NFL game that Kerry Collins played in last year. Wow.

    • Curse of Yahoo!

      It’s just science.

      • mo_by_dick

        “it’s poetry in motion”

        • Petefranklin

          Colt blinded me

          • mo_by_dick

            Thank you, Petefranklin.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Pete Franklin,
            It must have been the holographs.

  • BIKI024

    re: Kyrie, love him and his handle, but it doesn’t make him an Olympian. not with the guys ahead of him (CP3, DWill, Westbrook)

    but can’t wait to see him and Waiters run the break. would be nice if we could add Marshon Brooks to the mix, but it seems like it might be better to stay out of the fray when it comes to helping create another superstar-laden team, even if it is to help good old BK take over the city from the Knicks.

    • Curse of Yahoo!

      I resent the implication that Joe Johnson is a superstar (unless you’re referring to his agent). Take it back.

      • BIKI024

        ok, your right, he’s just a 6 time all-star who played on a knucklehead team that always seemed to have injuries at the worst times. it seems to me that with the guys he even currently has around him could make things “easier” for him. i expect him/them to have a very good year, with or without Dwight.

        • Curse of Yahoo!

          Sure, he’ll have a very good year, but he’s clearly on the downside arc of his career. I’m aware he made lots of all-star teams but I’m not sure he’ll be making them for the remaining four years of his deal.

          Maybe it’s semantics, but I’d dub Boshasaurus more of a “superstar” than JJ. JJ’s a “very good” player as you put it, but let’s hold off on making him part of the Nyets Big Three just yet. That’s all I’m sayin’.

          • BIKI024

            He’s as big of a “Big 3″ as Ray Allen was in his golden era the past few years, and as effective as Chris Bosh. He’s def in conversation of being the 3rd, of a “Big 3″, especially if BK lands Dwight

          • Curse of Yahoo!

            I think we’ll agree to disagree here and both eagerly anticipate the Dwight Era in Brooklyn.

          • BIKI024

            JJ would be the 1st scoring option on a lot of teams in the NBA, but him being the 3rd option in BK is bourgeois??

          • Curse of Yahoo!

            I think we’re dulling this down to semantics and I’m frankly too lazy to look up stats.

            Yes, he scores lots of points though!

      • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

        joe johnson is a superstar in the same way josh smith or carmelo or amare or chris paul or deron williams are.

        please kyrie, join the australian olympic team and stay away from this.

    • BigDigg

      I’m guessing Dan G. doesn’t mind creating another super-team in the East to combat the Heat. Enemy of your enemy is your friend kind of thing. Wouldn’t put it past him to be petty like that.

      Another factor – there’s probably a shelf-life for a team like this. Joe Johnson isn’t a youngster. Gerald Wallace isn’t a youngster and seems to be on the downside. Those contracts are bad now. They’ll be much worse in 4 years. Guessing Dan G. thinks we’ll be ready to roll around the time the Nets could be on the decline.

  • Brian Sipe

    I am finding it so so so hard to get excited about the Browns this year. I already am hearing the excuses from the media about the schedule, etc. Bottom line is if you told all the fans and media that were so excited to chase Mangini away for Holmgren that 3 years in they would go into the season ranked DEAD LAST there is no way they would have beleived it. and oh yes, let’s not forget, the completely trashed Colts have a higher over/under than the Browns with new EVRYTHING including coaches

    • BIKI024

      wah Wah WAH! i want it now Now NOW! we’re not 3 years in, we’re 2 years in. there’s a difference. sure, if we don’t see some positives out of the young core we have built in these last several drafts then i’d be concerned, but as of now I think we certainly heading in right direction.

      and who cares about the Colts over/under, it’s a bit higher because average joe vegas bettor is in love with Andrew Luck. god bless the fish.

      • Brian Sipe

        the point of this thread Bik is that as it stands we look like the worst team in the NFL…. I am not asking for a Super Bowl in year 3, not even the playoffs. However, I thought 8-8 was at least in play. Right now 5 wins would be a miracle.
        Detroit wnet 0-16 started from scratch and made the playoffs year 3

        • BIKI024

          5 wins would be a miracle??? enough with the drama dude, why don’t you enjoy the offseason and see for yourself before being so publicly whiny. what’s the point? do you not think we have some very good players on the team? do you not like rooting for the young guys to improve? i mean for pete’s sakes, mangini’s gone, get the frick over it and enjoy watching this team grow.

      • ClevelandFrowns

        You wanted Mangini gone after 3 games in 2009.

        The next season he beat the Saints and Pats with a garbage roster including no QB, and had the team in every game but one.

        Next year your boy brought in Shurmur and they turned in an historically bad season where they regressed in literally every way, blown out of most games by the third quarter. This season they’re set to do even worse than last season by way of Ws and Ls, and now you’re scolding Mangini supporters for being impatient.

        Fine, but just realize how unbelievably stupid this makes you seem.

        • BIKI024

          bro, i have my reasons for disliking Mangini, but for the millionth time, what exactly did you expect Holmgren and Heckert were going to do? all the blame is on your boy Lerner. name ONE TIME a team that brought in a new front office kept the head coach?? sweet feathury jesus, with our curse and all, we weren’t going to be the first team in NFL history to bring in a big-named pres and he doesn’t pick his own guy. just. doesn’t. happen. and yes, it was a horrific mistake to keep Mangini. but it is what it is and life goes on.

          • ClevelandFrowns

            Right, and this is Holmgren’s third year, not his second.

          • BIKI024

            semantics. spitale was saying he’s been here 3 seasons already. Mangini still needed a QB too, sure wasn’t getting anywhere with Colt..

        • Petefranklin

          And lets not forget that last year was a complete disaster, we’re talking Titanic, for those who dared put their ducats on the Clowns. 2-14 on the opening season long lines. Lost on the season o/u too. Dont forget that those lines may not appear sharp, but how many people throw 2 dimes or twenty on the Browns /Titans in early June? There is no balance to most action, the books hope for the best, which is why the Clowns not being favored in ANY FREAKING GAME should weigh the most on any opinion of how the Browns will do this year.The regression under Fritzes son is blinding for those who actually open their eyes. But I guess things have to be better this year with the minicamps and all…LOL.

  • p_forever

    hey here’s *my* important announcement about quarterbacks: no matter what all those jerks outside the “browns win zone” do to us this year, i still hate john elway the most, and i will be wearing this t shirt september 9th at the home opener so that everybody knows i still hate john elway, and it’ll be really fun to concentrate on hating john elway whenever something really awful happens on the field come september 9th, because no matter what happens it will not be as awful as what john elway did to us.

    i recommend you guys get a shirt like this too.

    • ClevelandFrowns

      Why should we hate John Elway? For giving us good competition?

      • p_forever

        you can have all the leeway you need wrt almost any athlete out there, frownie, but if you don’t understand why it’s fine for me to hate john elway than we have a serious issue.

        you don’t have to hate him. but it’s fine for me to do so.

        also i only hate him in his role as qb of the denver broncos. i don’t wish ill upon him, generally speaking. i admit i would have been fine with him breaking a leg or maybe getting struck by lightning or something along those lines during the course of either one of the playoff games that resulted in the browns missing the superbowl as a direct result of elway’s brilliance. (note also i am willing to concede that, in those 2 instances, he actually was brilliant.)

        i also admit that i was quite happy with his handling of tim tebow. lol.

        • ClevelandFrowns

          If it wasn’t for Wahoo the Drive would have never happened. You’re badly misdirecting your energy here.

          • p_forever

            i dunno – i hate wahoo too – please review your petition to see whose name is right there on top – multiple factors can contribute to a team’s failure, and it’s fine to hate all of them. (see, e.g., my current hatred* of randy lerner.)

            *again this is hatred of the sort that i defined above wrt elway.

        • mo_by_dick

          MY DISQUS NAME IS mo_by_dick AND I HATE EDGAR RENTERIA

    • acto

      Bravo p_4,
      Horseface Elway is &%$*#!

  • nj0

    Am I the only guy on Earth who thinks Tony Romo is consistently underrated? 149 TDs, 72 INTs, 64.5% Comp, 96.9 QB Rtg. His stats are pretty darn similiar to Philip Rivers. I’d take him over Michael Vick every time.

    I know, I know… he ain’t clutch.

    • ClevelandFrowns

      That’s fair.

  • p_forever

    oh and a public service announcement: if you’ve got nothing else going on at lunch tomorrow, come downtown to the city club to hear more about “the economics of hydraulic fracking.”‘ it should be good.

    http://www.cityclub.org/Programs/Current/tabid/172/Default.aspx

    • BIKI024

      they did a great job with the blurb, while it seemed a little slanted towards the risks of fracking, it seems like they are trying to be right down the middle to get people to show up. kind of like Vegas and Browns bettors . they want all the national fans to take the under, while the true Browns fans take the over. split right down the middle

      • Petefranklin

        The books want the Browns to win 15 games this year.

        • BIKI024

          i’m hoping for 7, but will settle for 5 and will happily pay you your middling winnings

          • dubbythe1

            5 is progress! Year three… Great Success!!

          • Petefranklin

            I would have loved to have gotten that 6/under-130 that mgm put up. I went to the bank and fought traffic to bet it but it was much too late. Is it too early to say that the Buffalo game is a must win for Cleveland?

  • Curse of Yahoo!

    Why don’t either of the graphs have a defined x- or y-axis? I’m getting a headache.

  • mo_by_dick

    Does anyone have any strong feelings about Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft?

    http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/07/cleveland_browns_considering_f.html

  • NeedsFoodBadly

    Hey Frowns, did deadspin pay you for doing all the legwork on this story? ’cause they should’ve.

    http://deadspin.com/5924799/birth-of-a-rumor-how-the-lebron-jamess-love-child-story-went-viral

    • ClevelandFrowns

      Naw, they actually got quite a bit deeper than I did, back to a message board post at a site called Lipstick Alley that looks to be Sandra Rose’s source. I’m glad they posted on it.

  • GrandRapidsRustlers

    Now that I have let the graphs sink in for most of the day…

    We lost to John Skelton. He is above the line. Let that sink in.

    This would also be a good time to thank Gabbert for being a rookie and not calling an audible to give the ball to MJD maybe even once from the 1 yd line.

  • CleveLandThatILove

Previous post:

Next post: