X’s and O’s with the Bros, Week 6: Turning the tables on the Bengals

by Cleveland Frowns on October 17, 2012

Welcome to the latest edition of Xs and Os with the Bros by Xs and Os editor @rodofdisaster. This feature represents a basic attempt to look deeper into the game of football, learn something about the X’s and O’s that make it go, and better appreciate the games within the game. It’s called Xs and Os with the Bros because you don’t have to be a player, coach, or rocket surgeon to get something out of taking a closer look at a football play, so please enjoy the post and the discussion in the comments.

This week Rod focuses on Sheldon Brown’s game-changing fourth quarter interception, as well as an offensive formation in which Shurmurball has found some success.

—————

Time: 4th Quarter, 7:55 left;
Score: Browns 27-17
Situation: 1st and 10 from Cincinnati 12; Browns have kicked off after a Ben Watson TD.

I. PRE-SNAP


The Bengals have come out in “11” personnel. The formation is 2×2 right (TE to the right). Dalton is in the shotgun with a back to his left. The Browns come out in 4-2 Nickel personnel. This has been their personnel reaction to “11” so far this year. A couple notes on the pre-snap reads:

  • The CBs are lined up on their men suggesting a man-to-man coverage. The safety at the top (Ward) is creeping down into the box. This should tell Dalton that he has a single deep safety (Young) and he should figure this is man-free coverage (1 deep safety and man-to-man underneath).
  • Typically this coverage involves some blitz pressure and here we see Craig Robertson showing blitz in the A-gap to the center’s right (top arrow) and D’Qwell Jackson showing blitz through the opposite B-gap (between guard and tackle).

II. DROP BACK

At this point we see that Dalton has taken a 3-step drop. Robertson has bailed into a “robber” position (he’s generally playing a shallow zone looking for crossers). Dalton is looking left all the way (blue arrow). Sheldon Brown is playing a bit of a cushion and he’s cheating by watching Dalton the whole way. The pass pattern is drawn in red. He’s anticipating the route much like Cary Williams did with Weeden in Baltimore in the Week 4 matchup.

III. PICKED


Here we see that Brown has broken over the top of the defender and beaten him to the spot where the ball was arriving. This is important. If he takes an underneath angle, he’s likely to miss the ball and the receiver has a lot of space with only Usama Young to beat (and we know how that’s likely to go). But by coming over the top, Brown can still contain the receiver to some degree even if he misses the ball. By avoiding the underneath space, he also avoids being picked by the corner in coverage on the slot receiver.

DISCUSSION:

While Emmanuel Stephens’ strip sack might have Shurmur-proofed the victory, this is the play that broke the game open. The pre-snap look from the defense suggests the man-free coverage. It’s unclear if Dalton thought he was getting 3-deep zone coverage or man-free robber as he got here. That’s probably irrelevant because (facing the blitzers) he was looking to get the ball out quickly.

This play is somewhat of a microcosm of what went right for the Browns defense on Sunday. Last year, I wrote an X’s and O’s entry titled “Joe Haden: Shutdown Corner?” where I pointed out that AJ Green was on another level and that Joe’s game had to improve to keep pace with such a talented receiver. After watching four weeks of football without Joe, I knew that the Browns’ defense would be better with Haden back; the question was how much better? The answer for now is “a lot.” While Haden won’t make Usama Young and TJ Ward better tacklers or cover men, he makes a difference in how offenses approach this team and how effective the called coverages are. Last week against the Giants, there was relatively little blitzing. Maybe the difference from then to now is in the opposing QB and how much the Browns do or don’t fear him. On the other hand, it could simply be that Joe Haden allows for a more aggressive defense because of what he can do.

One thing immediately obvious with Haden back is the pass targeting. In previous weeks, the offense would go away from Brown at the less experienced Skrine and Patterson. The Browns gave up a highlight-reel play to AJ Green but I would argue that the Bengals had a hard time targeting Green. While he was targeted 11 times in this game, six of those targets came in the last quarter and change. One resulted in an interception and four were in the hurry up after the play we’ve reviewed here. That’s almost three full quarters of the Bengals primary receiver being someone OTHER than AJ Green. Since they chose to go away from Haden on a consistent basis Sunday that gives Brown a bit of an advantage as he understands that his side is hot most often. Joe Haden wasn’t perfect but he was very good on Sunday, which is encouraging in his first game back. I hate the term “shutdown corner” because I think it’s really a myth. The only corner I ever saw shut down half of the field was Deion Sanders and no one else was close to his ability. Today’s shutdown corner is a very good, if not elite, player who isn’t tested that often because he’s made a lot of interceptions. At some point that guy is a “shutdown corner” based on reputation and nothing else (see Nnamdi Asomugha). But any good offense will test him from time to time to keep the defense honest. Joe Haden isn’t a shutdown corner in my book but he’s a very good corner and that’s really all he needs to be. Dedication to film study and professionalism are what will take him to the next level.

The few times I’ve commented on Sheldon Brown it seems I’m often criticizing the Browns for not playing him at safety more, and his risk-taking can often be maddening. I also wonder why the Bengals didn’t challenge him deep more frequently last Sunday, which also would have exposed what’s so far been typically weak safety play (the Bengals first touchdown, the 55-yarder to Gresham, was inexcusable). But this all belies the fact that I really do like Brown as a player. This play wasn’t made because Sheldon is fleet of foot. This was purely a veteran reaction to the fact that Dalton needed an inside breaking route, stared down his receiver and threw to a spot. It’s probably something he’s seen a thousand times as an NFL defensive back. He made Dalton pay and blew the game wide open. Well done.


PART 2. SPECIAL “NEW OWNER, NEW ATTITUDE, BREAK THE CYCLE” BONUS X’s AND O’s

While I have often been a critic of Pat Shurmur and still find his in-game management nauseating, not to mention his post-game prickliness, I’ve noticed something the last few weeks that merits some mention.


At 7:03 in the first quarter, the Browns come out in this formation to start the possession after the Gresham TD. I call this Ace Double Wing Right Twins (Ace is the one RB, Double wing right refers to the two TEs; and twins refers to the two WRs opposite the TEs). Does anyone recognize this? Here’s a hint:


It’s the same formation out of which they scored the 61-yard TD to Gordon to go up 14-0 against the Giants in Week 5. We’ve seen this formation a couple of times before this season but last week against the Giants it resulted in some bigger plays, also including a 12-yard run for Richardson.

As you can see above, the play that resulted in the Gordon TD was interesting. The two tight ends to the right play off each other. The outside man (Cameron) runs a corner route deep. Watson runs an out. This beats multiple coverages. In zone coverage they put vertical stretch on the shallow defender and lateral stretch on the safety, causing the shallow defender to choose whether to cover the deep or shallow man. The safety then has to decide whether to cover this corner route or stay towards the middle. He can’t let this threat run free. This opens up the middle of the field for both of those routes from the left that break toward the middle. Little runs a 15-yard in and Gordon covers the deep post across the field. The Giants actually covered this with Tampa-2 defense which meant the MLB was going to cover that deep third. This play still worked against that because the Giants linebacker Chase Blackburn couldn’t drop back fast enough and stay with Gordon while the safety worked over to Cameron.

Now back to Sunday against the Bengals:


Here the RG and RT pull to the right and the inside TE blocks down. This leads Richardson around the corner for an eight yard gain.

This is using variation out of the same formation to break tendencies (think “predictability”). We’ve been screaming about that here for the last year or so and this is what we’ve been looking for. In the last two weeks there are other examples:


Here is the 12-yard run for TRich in New York. You can see by my diagramming that the two TEs block ahead and the C (Mack) and LT (Thomas) pull to the left. From right to left, Schwartz gets to the second level (linebacker), Lauvao blocks down on the one DT and Pinkston the other.

And back to Cincy:

Later in the second quarter against the Bengals, the Browns use the Ace Double formation again. Run? Deep posts? Nope. Here it’s what’s called a “mesh” concept  in the passing game. The outside receivers run fades to stretch the defense laterally and the inside receivers (Watson and Gordon) cross which is great against man-to-man-coverage. One of the two should have some open space to run. Unfortunately, this pass was open but Weeden threw incomplete.

Here’s a slight variation on the formation using the shotgun:

The Browns keep the two TE’s in to max protect. The flood the right side with three routes. The slot receiver runs a corner route and the outside receiver runs a hook. The RB releases to the flat. This achieves that same stress on the zone defense mentioned above. There are three levels of routes: deep, medium and shallow and they are “flooding” the right side, hence the name “Flood.”

As you can see, the variations on the theme (run vs. pass, multiple pass concepts) out of the same formation are extremely important to fielding a successful NFL offense. This isn’t to say that the Browns weren’t predictable in other formations, situations or personnel groupings, but this is a start. We also noticed a draw or two to Ogbonnaya to help make his presence in the game less predictive of the play call.

The Browns have had success out of this Ace Double Wing formation the last few weeks and I sense that if Pat Shurmur is going to have any chance to save his job with Jimmy Haslam he’s going to have to develop some go-to play/personnel/identity on offense. The formation and personnel grouping here looks like the best that he’s found so far. It also looks like we’re seeing the newer players getting comfortable with the offense and staples of the west coast offense like weakside slant routes are starting to surface. This isn’t to say that the Browns offense has arrived but for a brief moment on Sunday, the offense, defense and special teams were playing complementary football and we haven’t said that around here in a long while.

—————

The full “Xs and Os with the Bros” archive is available here.

  • The Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugs

    Great analysis as always. Bonus coverage is much appreciated! I feel like a kid on Christmas who looked under the tree, found my two presents (Santa knew I wasn’t very good most years) and had someone tell me, “Are you sure you found ALL your presents?”

    “One thing immediately obvious with Haden back is the pass targeting.”

    Absolutely. While I also don’t feel Haden is good enough to make teams only use one half of the field, his presence does allow us to slide our coverage over at times. I think if used sparingly, it will allow our younger players to cheat on a coverage or feel comfortable jumping a route, trying to take away the other team’s #1 or #2 option away from Haden’s side. You know, the whole: “Think less, play faster” mentality…

    • bupalos

      The only thing that keeps Haden from being “shutdown” at this point is that he doesn’t have much of a “get the ball” mentality, so while his coverage is typically tight, I don’t think QB’s are afraid to throw at his tight coverage yet. Off the top of my head I can think of 5 balls (this year and last) that he’s OPTED to bat away rather than trying to make a play on the ball, including 1 yesterday.

      But I think people consistently underrate the value of Haden as a tackler. He’s probably the best tackling corner I’ve ever seen, absolute textbook with great instincts on how to keep a guy from getting those extra 3 yards. And his speed and motor means he’s a corner and half of a safety wrapped in 1.

      • BIKI024

        with Revis and Webb out, I’d put Haden in Top 3 right now al after Nnamdi and Joseph. Of course Woodson and Bailey are still some of the best in the business, but their age is starting to catch up to them, giving Haden a slight edge.

      • rodofdisaster

        Haden is one of the best tackling corners in the NFL. That’s for sure.

        His problem isn’t exactly not “getting the ball”. I think he makes his share of interceptions. Where he struggles is that he will get turned around in man coverage and he will be a little inconsistent with finding the ball in the air. I think his hands are pretty good though. The other thing about Joe is that (and this is just my opinion) he seems much better in zone coverage than man. Nnamdi is the opposite.

        • actovegin1armstrong

          “The only corner I ever saw shut down half of the field was Deion Sanders and no one else was close to his ability.”
          What about Darrell Green?
          Champ Bailey?
          Dick “Night Train” Lane?
          Mel “Stupid Steeler” Blount?
          Emmitt Thomas?
          Frank Minnifield?
          Hanford Dixon?
          Revis Island?
          Dwight Hicks?
          Mike Haynes?
          Lestor Hayes?
          Rod Woodson?
          Roger Wehrli?

          At the very minimum, I would put the first eight guys on that list above Sanders.
          And even worse, Sanders tackled like an expert Matador.

          • rodofdisaster

            “Only corner I ever saw…”. Never saw Wehrli , Thomas or Dick Lane play. I saw all those others and they were all great.

            Yes, he’s a horrible tackler; but shutdown corner (IMO) refers to coverage ability. The offense typically would ignore Deion’s side of the field for most of the game. I’m just saying. Those guys were all HOFers in their own right but to suggest that Mel Blount covered like Deion Sanders is a stretch.

            I’ve seen Darelle Revis play in person many times and he’s simply a great corner. He’s not a very good tackler at all. I’d take Joe Haden as a tackler before I’d take Revis and I love Revis. Perhaps destined for Canton. He’s not Deion Sanders.

            If I had to pick one guy to cover a HOF receiver for one game, it would be Deion.

            Burst, hips, recovery speed, hands, turning an interception into a punt return. Never saw anybody do it as well as Deion.

            I find him terribly annoying but I can’t argue that he wasn’t the best I ever saw at covering a WR.

      • vespo09

        Best tackling corner I’ve ever seen would have to be Antoine Winfield.

  • BIKI024

    good stuff per usual.

    re: Banner. meh. i think seeing him reminds us how little the fans interact with the CEO/team president. it’s pretty clear that he isn’t nearly as polished person when talking to the media/fans as Haslam, who probably will be the “face” in addition to the HC. but obviously his track record in Philly speaks for itself (new stadium, hiring Andy Reid, albeit no SB rings)

    • actovegin1armstrong

      Biki,
      You may be missing something here.
      Bruce Banner should play DE.
      He may not be worth much early in the game, but once they are running him over and pushing him around, he will turn green and really be the run stopper the Browns need.

  • BernietoCatcherGuy

    Here’s a question I have: Does it seem like when you are watching the game that the Brown’s players have no fire in their belly? I don’t see much enthusiasm. It’s like they are just going through the motions, with no emotion. Disagree or agree?

    • BIKI024

      DISAGREE

      • BernietoCatcherGuy

        I see guys like Little blocking like crazy and getting up for big plays and even Haden. But where else and who else supplies this?

        • BIKI024

          Cribbs, the offensive line, dline, Dqwell, TRich, etc. I mean, sure the guys have been beat individually/collectively as a unit, but it doesn’t seem to me due to lack of effort. winning is the only thing that covers up perceived lack of “fire in their belly”. we’ll see how you feel after another win this Sunday.

          • BernietoCatcherGuy

            Some individual effort was given, but I disagree after watching this last game. I saw a lot more slacking….and they won! I just wonder what it would look like if they had someone like Harbaugh to fire them up and call a good game

          • BIKI024

            hey if you saw it you saw it. i don’t agree, but i’m also watching games with rose tinted glasses and a nickel bag of funk

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Biki has yet to supply me with that Dime Bag.
            Bernie CG, name some names.
            Please give some examples, because I think that you are completely and unequivocally wrong.
            Pre-game, or half time speeches are crap!
            We are speaking of very competitive grown men.
            When I was playing, if a coach started his “Win one for the Gipper” Knute Rockney speech I would take my guys, the defense, pull them aside and remind them of their signs, assignments and signals.
            Those stupid motivational speeches are for the TV cameras and the guys riding the pines.

        • bupalos

          2nd half of the Giants game was the only one where it looked like guys hung their heads to me. Which is impressive, because if I was playing for Shurmur I might hang mine.

          As specifically who else keeps going all out, Billy Winn for one, Sheard, DQ, Cribbs blocks like a mother when he’s in there on O. Sheldon Brown plays pretty fired up as do the young linebackers. Overall, I don’t see motivation as a problem at all.

          Maybe Marecic. Guy does not even want to play football I don’t think.

          • BIKI024

            i think Rod would agree after watching the tape, while Marecic had the dropsies again, the dude put down some big blocks this past Sunday. Hopefully we can get more of that against the Colts where we better have 35+ team rushes.

          • rodofdisaster

            This game will tell how stubborn Shurmur is or isn’t.

            To beat the Colts you don’t need to be fancy. If you can run the ball you can win. If you look at the Jets, their run offense prior to last week was terrible. They seemed to have no problem.

            The Colts are a smallish defense and are in that uncomfortable time of switching from 4-3 to 3-4 and you need to challenge that.

            If Shurmur doesn’t run the ball 30 times, i think we have our answer as to how much he’s willing to think outside the box because the answer on how to beat the Colts is already proven.

          • rodofdisaster

            I went on record as saying that up until two weeks ago, Marecic was the worst fullback I’d ever seen. EVER. SEEN.

            I’m not sold yet but his blocking has been better the last game or two. His pass catching is atrocious.

          • NeedsFoodBadly

            Is it possible to coach hands once a player is at the NFL level? Or is it pretty much a lost cause at that point?

      • actovegin1armstrong

        You are correct on this one Biki.
        Most certainly at the pro level and in my experience at every level, guys hate to lose.
        That is why we play sports, we are competitive JACKASSES.
        I could not go out and “exercise” if you held a gun to my head, but make it a competition where I can crush the 20-somethings and I will go until I lose my vision and pass out.
        I am certain that every Browns’ player has at least as much competitive fire, if not more.
        I see a competition problem occasionally with Diva Receivers and sissy QB’s, but those clowns are not real football players.
        I am with Biki.

        DISAGREE!!

    • rodofdisaster

      see above

  • vespo09

    I would just like to point out that Joe Haden has the most absurd Wikipedia photo of all time. Take a look if you haven’t seen it…

  • BernietoCatcherGuy

    New question for rodofdisaster. How has the All-22 changed your perception of what happens on every play. Who do you see who never gives up and how often do people take plays off? Have you had a lot of perceptions changed after watching it?

    • NeedsFoodBadly

      I’m also curious as to how many hours you put into reviewing the games and if you review every Browns game multiple times or just pick particular segments to focus on. Do you do notetaking, etc. I’m sorta fascinated by this process.

      Also, do you have any thoughts on this? – http://deadspin.com/5952195/how-the-hell-did-the-seahawks-build-an-elite-defense

      I remember the Browns defense getting some attention in the Rex Ryan days for the amoeba thing, and I wonder about how to balance innovation with players, and such.

      • rodofdisaster

        NFB-

        Since I live out of town, I don’t get to see every game live. I can’t get DirecTV so I am pretty much watching games on NFL Rewind. I did chart the plays and formations for two of the first six games (I simply didn’t have time to go back).

        As for my routine, I pretty much watch the whole game. I will watch on All-22 view mostly although sometimes I will go back to certain plays and watch with the broadcast view to hear the announcers describe what happened when it isn’t clear. I usually will watch the game and try to focus on what the game plan seems to be as well as what’s working and what isn’t. I probably watch most of the game twice. Easier to do when you can skip around and don’t have commercials. I try to choose a play to focus on each week because:

        a) it was pivotal in determining the outcome of the game
        b) demonstrates a weakness or strength in the scheme
        c) exposes a player’s weakness or strength (I don’t usually like to do that)

        d) it will demonstrate something basic that most fans should know to enhance their watching the games.

        e) adds to a particular issue of debate

        How long does it take? I’ve never really timed it but it will (on average) consume most of one evening. The hardest part is not taking the screen shots but actually annotating them (adding arrows and text, etc). That takes a little bit of time.

        The writing part isn’t terribly time consuming but sometimes when the play is a negative one, it’s harder to write about because it’s harder to explain how it failed. There are times when it’s not entirely clear who screwed up. As I state in the disclaimer, I’m by no means selling myself as an expert but I hope that the quality ends up good enough to help raise the general level of discussion here. We’re all still learning.

        When I am done, Frownie helps by offering feedback, proof-reading and loading it up! This one took a little longer with the bonus section and because I’ve been terribly swamped at work and with “Daddy Detail” so I wasn’t able to start til about 8:30. I finished around midnight.

        • CleveLandThatILove

          Really appreciate your efforts to enhance our experience. Thank you! Extra bonus fun this week with the win and being able to see some positive outcomes.

          • NeedsFoodBadly

            Thanks and ditto what CLTIL said. The education we’re getting is great.

        • jpftribe

          Rod
          This is one column I read religiously every week. Really appreciate your efforts here. Wish something like this was around when I was growing up.

          Would also like to see more comments from dwhalen. Great additional perspective here.

          Encouraging analysis on the bonus coverage. With the limited talent / experience this team has, it has been maddening to watch basic coaching mistakes regarding game management. I get the overall impression Shurmur is over-thinking when there are times you just need to play smash mouth football and conservatively manage the clock. Good to know there is some sophisticated scheming underlying some of the offensive success they have had in the last few weeks.

          Also agree the Haden changes the complection of the defense. Allows Brown and Patterson to play effectively. Need help at safety for sure. Ward has played really well, and really poorly. Young is out of his depth.

          • rodofdisaster

            dwhalen is a must-read commenter. No question.

    • rodofdisaster

      I would tell you that watching football on tv is like the watching it through a peephole. Until you can see every player, you simply can’t see the action-reaction process. The QB’s first read is the safeties deep and you can’t see that on TV. That isn’t to say that you can’t appreciate football on TV or that some announcers don’t compensate for that but you have to understand what you aren’t seeing.

      As far as the Browns are concerned, I would state plainly that I can’t think of one guy on this team who’s “mailing it in” or taking plays off. First, that culture started to change when Mangini took over. Post-Mangini, I would say that Tom Heckert has been VERY careful about what players he’s brought in. Second, if the current regime is canned at year’s end, these guys are all playing for their own job security. Everyone from the GM down to the mens’ room attendant had better bring their A-effort every time.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        You are so right Rod’o!
        I hate to watch all of the close up’s designed for the lowest common denominator when it comes to football fans.
        I need all 22!

  • Bryan

    Frowns – Did you see that Paul Ryan and Condi Rice were at practice today? Haslam wants Condi to be part of the Browns family. I imagine this will not make you happy.

    • BIKI024

      did they stop by practice? I saw how they were going to have an event at Baldwin Wallace this morning. Condi was part of the NFL’s marketing campaign for the women’s gear, sportin the Browns ladies tee. I wish they chose Jeff Garcia’s wife, cleveland’s finest: Carmella DeCesare

      • Bryan

        Haha. Carmella DeCesare. I believe she was involved in a tussle at the fine establishment “The Naughty Tramp.”

        MKC’s twitter says Condi and Ryan are “addressing” the team.

        Mary Kay Cabot ‏@MaryKayCabot
        Condy rice and Paul Ryan both addressing #browns players right now. 30-40 members of press corps at practice too.

        • BIKI024

          yeah, i think Jeff Garcia was involved too. i met them at a party in Cleve when he was playing for us, got the feeling that he putted from the rough.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            Wake up and smell the KY Biki!
            Jeff Garcia and at least 50% of the O-linemen I have ever known played for the other team. So what.
            There was also a Heavyweight Champion (NABF), from Akron who had his partner in the ring after every match.
            So what?

      • GrandRapidsRustlers

        My lasting memory of Jeff is when I was working at Beachwood Place the year he was here and he was walking the mall one morning with Carmella…everyone was trying to take her picture and talk to her while the QB OF THE CLEVELAND BROWNS sat on a bench and laughed.

        Still cracks me up. No one even knew who he was.

        • BIKI024

          yeah he’s not a very big guy by any means. could pass for a regular Jeff from Solon who’s a claims adjuster for Progressive

    • NeedsFoodBadly

      Anyone know how Condoleeza Rice is a Browns fan? Most people I’ve met who aren’t from Cleveland but root for the Browns became Browns fans due to Jim Brown, but she seems too young for that era.

      • BIKI024

        her dad was a big Jim Brown fan and she used to watch with him as a kid down there in Birmingham. (she was 11 in Jim’s last season with the Brownies)

        • NeedsFoodBadly

          Ah, so it was Jim Brown. Thanks.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        She’s older than she looks. Such an interesting life, talk about a role model.

  • http://www.redright88.com/ Tom_RedRight88

    “as well as an offensive formation in which Shurmurball has found some success.”

    That’s some deep, Indiana Jones-like work to uncover that artifact.

    Well done.

  • LesFleursDuMal

    Good stuff here. I would expect to see more running plays this Sunday with MoHard getting 5-8 carries. And a Jordan Cameron TD.

  • BIKI024

    Big 10 hoops should be a lot of fun this year. 5 teams in Top 21 of preseason rankings, with 3 in Top 5: #1 IU, #3 OSU, #5 UM, #14 MSU and #21 Wisco

  • BIKI024

    high praise from Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout (same guy who said he had anonymous agents of high draft picks saying they didn’t want to come to Cleve)

    “Watched a lot of Josh Gordon yesterday. It’s time for him to get max reps. Best playmaker outside of Trent Richardson. Steal for #Browns”

    • rodofdisaster

      My personal feeling has always been that if Gordon could adjust to the game that the combination of he and MoMass (when healthy) would be optimal.

      You can’t marginalize Little who is a good run blocker but receivers who can catch and make plays play over guys who can’t.

    • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

      i dont think matt miller realizes gordon was selected with the 33rd to 37th pick unless he intends to say that gordon is far and away better than stephen hill and alshon jeffery.

  • actovegin1armstrong

    Here is my own horn…. “toot toot”
    I wish I could find it because I mentioned last week that I would rather have Brown at a half step slower at corner than someone without his knowledge and experience.
    He will be a great safety, But right now the Browns need him at Corner.

    Just think how good the Browns secondary could be with Young on the bench, Brown at Safety and MO CLAIBORNE at the other corner.

    Rod’o, I know you rarely answer me and I do not take it personally, I just think that we must know each other and you have developed the usually healthy dislike, but….
    It appears to me that Haden very frequently is slow moving his hips, shades the wrong way, or just gets turned around.
    Could a pro version of Duane Akina fix this?

    • rodofdisaster

      Acto-

      I will try to be better about answering.

      That’s a tough question. First off, you’re entirely right in that the criticism of Haden has always been he’s stiff in the hips which, for a corner, means that he doesn’t change direction well. That’s all relative, of course.

      I don’t know how much a pro corner can change that sort of thing. What you’ve also noticed is that he tends to side-pedal while giving ground. This is a bad habit (if you ask me). By doing so, you are immediately declaring your hips in one direction or the other. Last year, AJ Green ran straight at him and cut across (in the direction Haden’s butt was pointing) and Joe got completely turned around. Some guys get away with this but it’s bad form.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        I was just joking Rod’o.
        I really appreciate everything you do here. Your knowledge immeasurably adds to the game for me and your insights are invaluable…. or is that valuable?
        Disirregardless, I love you.

  • ClevelandFrowns

    On a related subject, is it that we’re supposed to ignore DYAR and DVOA as well, or? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/week-6-dvoa-ratings

    A vast conspiracy?

    It must be.

    • Defenestration

      The problem with QBR is not the conclusion it comes to about Brandon Weeden. All of my points have been about the makeup of the stat itself.

      Football outsiders state exactly how they arrive at their numbers and what the numbers are supposed to tell us.

      “Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback ‘s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn’t adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.
      The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn’t adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.
      The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.”

      “Effective Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.”

      “Total QBR (listed as just QBR) is a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group. Total QBR is based on the expected points added by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the numbers to a scale of 0-100. There are five main differences between Total QBR and Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric…

      *Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.
      *Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.
      *Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.
      *Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.
      *Total QBR is not adjusted for strength of opponent.

      If you would like to discuss any of the stats in terms of their inputs and the merits of how they are calculated, I would enjoy having that discussion.

      If you are solely valuing a stat based upon its output, then the conversation is pointless.

  • Wiseoldredbeard

    This is awesome Rod. Thanks. Thoughts on Weeden going forward?

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    cheddar lines are up.

    http://db.tt/PICUjMzL

    • GrandRapidsRustlers

      Thursday Pick – Single lonely cheddar point.

      49ers (-7) over Seahawks

  • rgrunds

    Rod, you’re doing a great job since you took over this site. Really good. I read all your stuff three times.

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