Cleveland Frowns Reality Football Open Thread for Week 15

by Cleveland Frowns on December 6, 2012

It’s week 15, and the world’s first, only, and most corporately responsible football picking competition with a weekly writing requirement has a branding problem. Anyway, one monkey don’t stop the show, of course, so happy hunting until we figure this out.

The All Play is naturally Navy -7 v. Army, all the week 15 point spreads are here, and the rest is your reality football open thread for the weekend. Which should be all here for today, but we’ll be back tomorrow with something important.

  • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

    Thanks to Moby Dick (naturally) for finding the whale video, which, like FSOHZJackson’s Hawaii essay last week, is what Cheddar Bay is all about.

    • mo_by_dick

      I wish there was video of me showing the above video to Frowns at 3am while providing live commentary on its metaphorical relationship to Cheddar Bay, including naming specific whales after certain Cheddar Bay participants.

      • bupalos

        Suddenly my drunken debauches with the Kentites seem pretty flat.

      • actovegin1armstrong

        mo,
        Please elaborate, I would love to hear that story, especially the whale names.

        • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

          I can tell you that it was after the Hawaii/S. Alabama game.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            I get it.

            Congratulations!

            I am a sucker for the Romantic Comedy genre.

            I can see it now….

            Mo and Frownie, 3:00 am video after the Rainbow Warriors game, a little pillow talk.

            It is terrific that you two are so close.

          • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

            You nailed it.

          • actovegin1armstrong

            I would venture to guess that you did as well.

      • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

        Real Stories of Reality Football.

  • peter

    Broncos -10.5 over Raiders. Worst defense ever going against a HOF QB

    Navy -7 over Army

    Bonus game!! Browns -6 over Chiefs. The football Gods cannot be so cruel to let a miserable team led by Quinn and Hillis beat the Browns at home? Maybe, but this team defensively looks credible when Haden, Taylor and Rubin are on the field. Shurmer certainly can screw it up, but these Chiefs are bad. I would expect them to be mentally exhausted after last week’s tragedy. Hopefully we see more YAC from Little and Gordon. These guys are athletes, let them make plays.

    Bears -3 over Vikings Percy Harvin is on the IR. AP will have to run against 11 in the box

    Bucs -7.5 over Eagles To add insult to injury, The Bucs will honor the Super Bowl 37 team at halftime. The Eagles lost the NFC Championship game to the Bucs. i can’t imagine too many Randall Cunningham jerseys in the house on Sunday.

    Packers -6.5 over Lions. The Lions disappointing season must feel like a kick to the balls.

    • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

      “The football Gods cannot be so cruel to let a miserable team led by Quinn and Hillis beat the Browns at home?

      AHEM …

      • Believelander

        LOL right? What alternative universe Cleveland is this Peter guy from?

  • BIKI024

    Cheddar Bay:

    Oakland +10.5 : John Fox takes it easy on his old DC, Raiders make it a game.. double digit homedog division rival, i’ll take the points all day..

    Army +7: what a terrible all play, but it is what it is.. Army hangs tough

  • ChuckKoz

    Denver -10.5 (Raiders)
    Navy -7 (Army)
    Eagles +7.5 (Buccaneers)
    *Cardinals +10.5 (Seahawks)
    Packers -7 (Lions)
    Patriots -3.5 (Texans)

    *Late in the season when the playoffs are out of reach seems like a good time to take the Cardinals (see last years late run). The 4-8 Cardinals are now 2-1 ATS in the last 3 with covers against the Jets and Falcons (missed the Rams by 1 point, but the Rams were probably undervalued at that point based on how they just took down the 49ers). Meanwhile, people seem to be overrating the Seahawks, with way to many people claiming super bowl contenders for a team that should be 6-6 (but for replacement refs). And every is slurping Russell Wilson pretty hardcore, but it was the Cardinals that made him look a fool earlier this year in a Cardinals 20-16 win over the Hawks. Either way, 10.5 points is a lot for any team not playing against the Raiders defense (see above picks)….especially when its a 4-8 team versus a 6-6 team.

    • ChuckKoz

      wow, that was the worst pick of the season for me, by far. scores like that only happen in college, i thought.

  • nj0

    Hurting big box restaurants and creating market space for small, family owned places?!? Is there anything Obamacare can’t do?

    • Believelander

      Technically, it can’t time travel – yet.

      • nj0

        Obamacare is passed. The system goes on-line March 23rd, 2010. Human decisions are removed from healthcare. Obamacare begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug

        • Believelander

          But it’s too little, too late. Arnold shall walk the Earth.

      • Beeej

        Yes it can, but it can only go forward at one speed.*

        –Borrowed from Demetri Martin

  • actovegin1armstrong

    May I please have

    Denver -10.5 for my Super Fantastic Terrific Happy Hour Essay?

    Peyton Manning looks better with his supporting cast almost every week.
    The Broncos are playing to try to secure a first round bye.

    The Raiders are playing because it is the next game on their schedule.

    There is an extra large point spread that would usually scare me away in the NFL, but the Broncos have been terrific at scoring a lot of points and the Raiders have been doing well at giving up points. Even though I am terrible at NFL picks, this really seems too easy this week.

    Denver won by about 300 points when they played earlier this year and they have been getting better all season, while The Greatness of the Raiders continues to flounder like a kid from Mississippi taking her SAT’s.

    Peyton may be able to take it easy this game anyway because Oakland can not stop the run very well, but the Broncos may let him light it up in the first half to secure a victory.

    I watched Michael Huff get burned in college and it is a bit of a scary thought that he may be the best defensive back the Raiders have.

    More importantly than perhaps all of those reasons:
    Champ Bailey still plays for the Broncos.

  • zarathustra

    Raiders +10.5 over Broncos
    This is the nfl and you hold your nose and take these opportunites when they present themselves. Sure, Peyton Manning will probably torch a terrible raiders d, but mcfadden–top 5 rb–is finally back, short week on the road for broncos, and Dennis Allen was away from team for the week.

  • Believelander

    Bombshells dropping all day and night:

    http://tinyurl.com/bgvmy93

    This story is about Roger Goodell’s interview with TIME. One of the big things he discussed related to the concussions was the elimination of kickoffs. An idea he said was proposed by Greg Schiano – instead of kicking off after a score, the scoring team receives the ball 4th and 15 from their own 30 yard line, where they could drive to maintain possession or punt, as per the usual. I for one, think this is a fantastic idea, as the disproportionate majority of nasty head injuries in the NFL happen on kickoffs.

    • nj0

      I wonder how much more prevalent head injuries are on kickoffs than punts. I’d guess those would be number one and two.

      Interesting idea though.

      • Believelander

        According to Dustin Fox, who played a lot of NFL special teams in his career, while big hits happen on punts, it’s not even close to the frequency of severe hits on kickoffs. He said you pretty much (whether you’re a ball carrier or not, whether you’re on the kicking or receiving team) gird up to take massive punishment on every kickoff, with the full-speed guys taking each other out, slamming into gunners to block them, slamming into wedges etc.

        On a punt, the returner can be slobberknocked like any play, but he’s the only one usually dealing with these two-way full speed head-on collisions, they don’t always happen, and he can wave off with a fair catch if it’s not a favorable circumstance.

        Considering that kickoffs are the majority (he said there’s data showing the majority of bad concussions are on kickoffs) despite their infrequency, I think that really says something for how dangerous they are. This would also replace the onsides kick with an equally high-stakes venture, not just eliminate it (down at the end of the game, you just elect to go for it on the post-scoring play instead of punting it)

        • nj0

          Eliminating the on-side kick and the late game/end of the half implications are outstanding.

          • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

            lookit you two: as long as you’re here, throw in some picks.

          • Believelander

            It wouldn’t eliminate onside kicks in function – you get the ball 4th and 15 at your own 30 after scoring. You could choose to go for it instead of punting. The success rate would probably be a bit lower than onside kicking.

    • nj0

      To pick up on a sentiment Frowns articulated in yesterday’s Bernie comments- for me, football is nearing the point where I can no longer watch it with a guiltless conscience.

      I’ve never been one to get excited by big hits. They’ve always made me cringe a little, but at least I could take solace once a player got to his feet. See, he’s okay! Now even when (if) they do, I’m left wondering how much unseen damaged was suffered.

      In my teens/early 20′s, I use to love pro-wrestling. As I got older, it grew distasteful for me knowing that I was tacitly encouraging people to maim and cripple themselves as part of a lifestyle that seems to intrinsically encouraged other vices, such as drug use of a destructive nature.

      Call me a wuss (really, good ahead because I know that I am), but I can’t help but feel that the NFL is nearing that point for me too.

      I know the show will go on without me. And I know that these guys sign on to it and risk is part of life and they’re trying to make the game safer and they make big bucks for this and and and! And I guess comes down to that I just don’t know if I want to be a party to it anymore.

      Sorry for the lengthy downer of a thread jack, but I got going and couldn’t help myself.

      • peter

        You are not the only one.

      • Steve

        Hear, hear.

      • Believelander

        It’s true. At some point, though, I think deep down we all knew the count and were in denial. The thing that actually makes me the maddest is that the NFL continues to operate in denial mode. What they NEED to do is be completely straight up about it – “This game will kill your early. If you want to play, you sign a waiver, that you know and accept the risks. In return, in addition to your pay, we’ll take care of your health care on top of any other benefits.”

        I think guys have always known how terrible it was. Maybe not when they get in, but you learn pretty quickly. And anyone who WANTED to know could have figured it out. The problem is the players, the owners, the NFL, the fans, NONE of us -wanted- to know the truth. It’s human nature.

    • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

      [reposting from bernie thread]
      yes. the nfl has known about the issue since a study in 2005. the clinical data showed a 19x higher rate of memory problems among nfl players. i put something together on this after the harrison/cribbs hit two years ago. it’s still relevant because it’s still a ‘legal hit’ because ‘cribbs has the ball.’ which is to say that the rules in place and contemplated (eliminating kickoffs) are window dressing.

      fwiw, the last CBA includes funding for research and (per wiki) a billion dollars set aside for retired player benefits. didn’t help mike webster but it’s a start moving forward.

      • Believelander

        The problem is, you can never eliminate dangerous concussions from football, but if there’s ONE play where more concussions happen than any other play despite being the most infrequent play to occur in most football games, if you want to do what you can to reduce the concussions, this is probably where you want to go. And here’s how it would probably alter NFL football (aside from visually)

        - ‘Kickoff’ punts would see more long returns and touchdowns because it’s easier to have something go wrong on a punt return, and you would actually see kickoffs blocked, so you’re adding some chaos and randomization to the equation. Also more fair catches, so essentially the meat of what you’d be eliminating is the standard run 27 yards and get smashed by 5 guys.

        - Average starting field position post-kickoff would move back to the range it was in before they moved the kickoff point 5 yards. The average punt nets about 40-44 yards. Punting from your own 30, average starting field position for a team would probably be between the 25-35.

        - Switching from onside kicks to going for it on 4th and 15 from your own 30 probably wouldn’t substantially alter the chances of the desperate team keeping the football. I would guess your chances of converting would be slightly higher than an onsides, however the cutback is that an incomplete pass puts the opponent at your 30 instead of your ~38-45. Some stats reveal that onsides kicks are successful ~25% of the time, and 3rd and 15s are successful ~15% of the time.

        Any other thoughts on how this would affect the actual play of the game?

        • bupalos

          My only problem with this is I just love onside kicks. They are inexplicably just about my favorite part of football, and I don’t like the idea of both reducing the chance of keeping the ball AND increasing the penalty for failure by the field position risk.

          Though it may be that 4th and 15 in that situation has a higher chance of success than the 3rd and 15 stats suggest because you can use riskier plays like hook and lateral or multiple pitches.

          But yeah, the standard kickoff is a pretty uninspiring play and if you could reduce injury risk I’d say go for it. Why not just go ahead with the punt thing but make it a live ball after 15 or 20 yards or something (keeping fair-catch rules?) Short, wobley, line-drive on-sides punts could be great.

          • Believelander

            I like onsides kicks too, they’re exciting and tense. But I’d gladly sacrifice them if it meant taking the deadliest play out of football.

        • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

          welp, no argument that addressing a consistently dangerous play is good. but my over-arching point is that targeting another player’s head with your helmet is still a legal play.

          i mean.. i linked to the cribbs hit. here’s another. check out this LEGAL hit. http://telly.com/06ZDX

          so long as targeting any players head is legal, the nfl is NOT serious about the issue.

          • Believelander

            It’s sadly impossible to eliminate headshots. Also, the cracking down on headshots has led to some receivers actually intentionally lowering their head and taking helmet to helmet hits, then immediately petitioning for the penalty flag. Every time you plug a leak in the dyke, a new one springs open. I think that if you’re going to crack down on all headshots, the only way to do it is to focus on the post-game. A review board examines every helmet to helmet collision to see whether the defender was going for the kill shot or if they were going for a good tackle and circumstance caused it, or if the ball carrier drew the call. Then focus on fines and suspensions, hit the offenders where it hurts, rather than in-game real time penalties that are incredibly poorly officiated.

  • WooMike

    I’ll take the Broncos -10.5 tonight. That Raiders secondary should get shredded by Peyton and co.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    I’ll lay some herring on Broncos -10.5 tonight, against my better judgment.

    • Believelander

      /polite golf clap

  • Harbaugh handshakes

    Harbaugh handshakes Thursday night football pick
    Denver -10.5 vs Oakland.

  • bupalos

    hook me up with the silver and black. I’m thinking janikowski can keep it within 10. Plus if the raiders are ever going to play, I figure its this ga.

    • bupalos

      Ok. That didn’t work out. So Let’s try Navy in the all play.

  • CLEVTA

    Whoa that’s a mighty big BRONCOS on that google doc

  • CLEVTA

    1. Oak +10.5: This night be a good time to mention this stat:
    Home underdogs getting >8-points are 21-1 ATS in the last 22 gms. Normally I wouldn’t touch this but I need to make up ground.

  • GrandRapidsRustlers

    Week 15 Picks

    Atlanta (-3.5) over Carolina – I keep picturing sportswriters being forced to type “The Falcons are a good football team.” over and over just like Jack Torrance.

    New York Giants (-5) over New Orleans – Yeah the Saints are going to hang with NY in the town with the league offices. Sure.

    Green Bay (-6.5) over Detroit – I give Jim Schwartz all the credit in the world. It’s really hard to make a run at Shurmur but you find a way almost weekly. Add a pissed off GB team and I smell bloodbath.

    New England (-3,5) over Houston – This is hard. Mainly because I think that Bill is reacting to a proposed rule that would eliminate kickoffs and trying to devise a two tight end set that would guarantee a gain of 15-20 yards in an effort to play a game in which the other team never touches the ball. Some of you may even think I’m kidding.

    Essay Pick

    This was hard to do. I had something in my head backwards all year. I figured that with all the old Browns coming to town on Sunday that KC would be fired up and simply blow the Browns off the field. What I misread was that no one in Berea has any ill will towards Romeo or Brady. I mean Brady was what 4 quarterbacks ago? Hillis on the other hand is despised on a level that it caused Joe Thomas to speak. I won’t get into any of the other stuff with KC because I don’t think it really matters. The Browns defense is not half bad and the Chiefs are a terrible football team. I think we have a blowout by the lake for the first time in a long time. Browns big on Sunday.

    Cleveland (-6) over KC

    All Play

    I saved my All Play for last this week. Cheddar Bay is about a lot of different things to different people. The amount of football and gambling knowledge gained in 2 short years is amazing and I thank the community for that.

    I have had this week circled since last year because this pick is about redemption.

    Last September I lost one of my really good friends. He lived a great life serving our country in the Army, working with the Twins, and fighting chronic pain until his death far too soon at 35. He was the kind of friend who informed me one morning when we were living in Akron that he wanted wings that day. We got home 9 hours later and when our roommate asked where we were the answer was simple. We were unaware that Duff’s had any other locations than Buffalo.

    One of your jobs with the Twins in the Dominican Republic was to spend the winter with Wilson Ramos and his family in Venezuela during winter ball. You were on the same team with Miguel Cabrera which is when you informed me one night that you are just not worried about your liver anymore because that guy is amazing.

    When Wilson Ramos was kidnapped and rescued last winter among a hail of bullets in the mountains he stated that it was almost like he had someone watching out for him. You did Wilson. You had some help from that crazy Irish guy who was fluent in Korean and taught you English.

    The redemption for me is simple. Last year in all of this I picked Navy. Everything that I knew and I went that way? Consider this my apology to you Geoff.

    Army (+7) over Navy
    http://www.geoffbrachvogelmemorialscholarship.com/

  • Capitalgg

    Week 15:
    [all-play] Army +7 v. Navy:
    Me: Can Navy cover 7 against Army this weekend?
    Magic 8 Ball: Ask again Later.
    Me: Will Army beat Navy on Saturday?
    Magic 8 Ball: Absolutely.

    With that said… Go Navy!

    1) Bears -3 @ Vikings: Almost the essay, but AD makes me less than fully confident about this one.
    2) Bengals -3 v. Cowboys: Cincy is hot at the right time and the ‘Boys simply a bad team.
    3) Ravens +2.5 @ Redskins: The Ravens are overdue for a statement game.
    4) Falcons -3.5 @ Panthers: Because the Falcons just win.

    Of course I follow my first career Lobsterfest with a week when I have no college football games to bet. AHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! What to do?

    Pick a bunch of NFL games, cross my fingers and hope for the best. I thought about letting the Magic 8 Ball do the work for me, but I think its expertise is only all-plays.

    So I’ve thrown some stuff up against the wall and hope something sticks.

    And I’ve decided that a divisional match-up in which 1 team is giving 2 scores to the other is probably my best play. Arizona has already beaten Seattle once this year. The Cards have covered in 2 of their last 3. ‘Zona also tends to put streaks together late in the year. Well, the calendar has flipped to December. And hell, after losing 8 in a row, they are probably due for a win. So I’ll take 10.5 points and the Arizona Cardinals in Seattle this weekend.

    Other play:
    Jets -2.5 @ Jaguars

    • Petefranklin

      Maybe you can join the exclusive club (me) of following up a lobsterfeast with a Shurmerfeast.

      • Believelander

        LOLOLOL are people really calling 0 fer a Shurmurfest?

  • LadyLucy

    AP: Navy -7

    Essay: Atl -3.5

    I think Matty Ice and the Falcons make a statement with this game. They haven’t blown anyone out and its time to step up and make that happen. I think the Panthers player who said they were better than the Falcons might just be the motivation they need. Their defense needs to step up and they need to win a game by more than 3 points.

    Cowboys +3

    Texans +3.5

    Lions +6.5

    Saints +5

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    late line posted:
    steelers -9.5 vs chargers
    PIT-QB-Ben Roethlisberger-Probable | TV: CBS, DTV: 712 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWERS. EAST WIND 9-14. KICKOFF TEMP 49

  • FSOhioZjackson

    All play: Navy -7

    Chiefs +6

    Titans +5.5

    Redskins -2.5

    Texans +3.5

    ESSAY: Bengals -3

    I just think the Cowboys are terrible. There are results to prove it — and not just games they’ve lost (hi, Browns!). They’re in the playoff race only because so many teams are out of it. And that may be the case for the Bengals, too, but they’re on a hot streak. And I don’t like this week’s matchups much, and I’m probably going down. But I’ll go down going against the Cowboys and going with AJ Green, and I suppose there are worse ways to go.

    • Believelander

      I don’t know if I support you on the Cowboys being terrible. This is because trying to decipher the Cowboys is like staring at the sun – you won’t learn anything and you’ll just burn your eyes out.

  • http://twitter.com/JRichTCF Jeff Rich

    Navy (-7) vs Army
    The most important thing to point out about this game is that, regardless of the score on Saturday, there are no losers. God bless the future leaders of the world; this is about so much more than college football.

    I know there’s a lot of talk about throwing the records out for rivalry games, but it reigns especially true for this one from a strategical standpoint. They don’t give away any size, which both schools do for every other game against non-academy teams, and neither is unfamiliar with the Triple Option attack. Army has just two wins and a 1-point loss to NIU to highlight their resume, and they were +9 in the turnover battle in those games. As long the Middies aren’t playing Notre Dame, they do a pretty good job holding on to the ball. In the end, I’m going with the better coach here, and that’s Ken Niumatalolo of Navy over Rich Ellerson at West Point.

    Redskins (-2.5) vs Ravens
    You try not to let single events, like Charlie Batch beating the Ravens or Robert Griffin III taking over ESPN’s Monday Night event, influence you too much, but sometimes you just can’t help it. Washington is on the up and up, while their (sort of) intrastate rivals might be going the other way. I mean, the Ravens really struggle on the road; a loss at Philly, 3 point wins in Kansas City and San Diego, another near-miss against Byron Leftwich, and an escape from Cleveland where the Browns beat themselves highlight a woeful road schedule.

    Griffin and Alfred Morris are the usual suspects, but don’t underestimate the value of Leonard Hankerson, even if Garcon is slowed by injury. There’s been talk of the Ravens losing out, no one really takes their 9-3 record at face value, and that starts at FedEx Field, even though I think they salvage a 10-6 season and a postseason cameo without Suggs at 100%.

    ***Colts (-5.5) vs Titans***

    On Thanksgiving Day, with the issue still in doubt at Ford Field, I remember thinking just how important that non-conference win was for Houston with the Colts lurking in the background. They won the game, so it ends up being a moot point, but reverse that OT win in Mo Town, and the AFC South is still realistic for the Fighting Chuckstrongs.

    Do we really think this Colts team is for real? No. Sure, Luck is the real deal, but not against the league’s premier defenses. The Titans aren’t premier in any respect of the game; I’d go as far as to say they’re the worst team in the league, even if they aren’t on the clock for four months after the season ends. I see the Colts, fighting off Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the wild card spots, winning this one going away, in a battle of “good, but not great” versus “flat-out awful”.

    Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina
    Whether they’re losing to the Chiefs or collapsing against the Bears, the Panthers play some pretty competitive football most of the time. A 30-28 loss at the Georgia Dome earlier this season tells you all you really need to know about the way they match up with the Falcons. However, after a while, the truth is spoken mostly in Wins and Losses. For Carolina, that’s 3 up and 6 down.

    Atlanta is hitting that point in their schedule, at 11-1, where they’re doing whatever the football equivalent of “counting outs” in baseball is called. Can they get everything they want out of a 13-3 season? After this one, they have the Giants and Lions, before closing out with Tampa Bay. If they can afford to split down the stretch, it would be nice for that Giants game not to be a must-win and to rest key personnel in Week 17. Those luxuries do not properly present themselves if they slip up against Cam and Company in Charlotte. Not to mention, I think Michael Turner is a bit angry at ESPN after the way a former Ohio State quarterback tore his alma mater apart last Sunday on the BCS Selection Show. That might not mean anything at all, but it might.

    Packers (-6.5) vs Detroit
    The Packers and Lions both have a lot of young talent, and play in a similar, potentially exciting scheme. Green Bay has the experience that Detroit does not. Their attitudes vary from having character to having character flaws. Their coaches are polar opposites; one’s subtle and collected, the other borders on out of control.

    I don’t know that it’s a stretch to say Green Bay is better, right now, than the 15-1 team of a year ago. Detroit is certainly worse than their playoff-participating team of 2011. Last year, it was Matt Flynn in Week 17 against a Detroit team playing to win that shootout. This year, it will be Aaron Rodgers, early and often. Ryan Grant will be a non-factor, but this is a Detroit team that gave up 44 to the aforementioned GAWD-AWFUL Titans. Packers big here.

    Patriots (-3.5) vs Texans
    Who is the best team in the AFC? I’d make a case for the Broncos, but both teams in this week’s Monday Night game defeated Peyton Manning, so there’s that. There’s another common opponent of relevance, Baltimore. Houston blew their purple and black asses out of the building. New England lost to them in prime time, but I’d qualify that by saying the Patriots beat themselves.

    In a vacuum, I’d go with the Texans here and their balanced offensive attack. In the real world, under the lights in Foxboro, I have to go with Brady. I don’t want to call it complacency, but Brady and Belichick have been at it so long, that they’ve gotten into the habit of playing down to their competition if the stage isn’t big (Super Bowls notwithstanding). As long as Tom Coughlin isn’t involved, the prime time spotlight is usually enough for the Pats. On the flipside, wasn’t that Texans loss played at night against an explosive offense in Green Bay?

  • Cousin_of_Cohen

    Week 15 picks for HurriKain Colter:

    Navy -7 over Army
    Atlanta -3.5 over Carolina
    Cincinnati -3 over Dallas
    Arizona +10.5 over Seattle

    New England -3.5 over Houston

    Essay Pick:

    Indianapolis -5.5 over Tennessee

    I’ll take my bye-week for writing an essay this week. Thanks

    • Believelander

      Your thesis is really short and underdeveloped. O.o

  • D Quatts

    D Quatts

    Navy -7

  • CLEVTa

    1. Oakland (L)
    2. Army +7 (All Play)- I like the camo uni’s
    3. SF -10 (essay): Best stat you will hear all week. After a loss under Harbaugh, SF has allowed 17 total pts in 5 Ls. That includes 0 touchdowns allowed, that’s right 0. Now Miami comes to town with turnover machine Tannehill and a piss poor offense that just got worse with the loss of Jake Long for the rest of the season. You think Aldon Smith and Justin Smith won’t feast on Derek Anderson Jr? SF is angry and Kap will come back strong after hearing all week what a bad idea it was to make a QB change. Niners roll by 20+.

    4. Jets -2.5: Hold my nose on this one but every time the Jets are being counted out they go on the road and play well. I think being on the road helps Sanchez and not having to hear those boos. The last time this happened they looked awful vs Seattle and Miami then went out and handled the Rams on the road. This has a similar feel, especially vs a bad Jacksonville team that has no home field advantage and will be without their best offensive weapon in Cecil Shorts and now are down to their 4th string RB in Owens after MJD, Jennings and Parmalee are down. The one thing the Jets can do is run the ball and can do it well vs poor run defenses. Case in point vs Indy earlier in the season. This has the feel of a 16-10 game.

    5. Carolina +3.5: Carolina and ATL have the same exact yds/play on offense (5.8) while Carolina somehow has a better yds/play allowed (5.3 v 5.8). All this while Carolina has played a top 5 toughest schedule and ATL one of the easiest schedules in the league. ATL has already clinched the NFC South so there’s very little motivation plus they are banged up in the secondary with William Moore and Asante Samuel not likely to play. Also, ATL is coming off an emotional revenge victory over NO. As long as Carolina shows up a little I think they cover the number, that’s if Ron Rivera finally decides to go for a 4th and short near midfield to ice a game rather than foolishly punt.

    6. Giants -5: I like the Giants off an L and playing at home. Saints are not the same on the road and even worse outside in the cold, especially during a 4:25 game. Bradshaw should be a monster in this game. Saints are down a couple lineman and that’s bad news vs the Nascar package.

  • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

    So many reality football points are piled on top of this list … http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/eye-on-college-football/21307248/dreadful-dozen-counting-down-the-worst-teams-of-2012

    S. Alabama must be #13.

  • mrickman

    Navy -7
    Falcons -3.5
    St. Louis +3
    Eagles +7.5
    Packers -6.5

    Texans +3.5

    Kind of shocking to me the Texans would be dogs in any game this season, but home field is home field, and that’s worth a few. I know the Patriots have been an offensive juggernaut at times this season, but something hasn’t stuck right for me. Maybe it was the first half of that Buffalo game, but the paper tiger theory of New England won’t go away.

    Houston, on the other hand, is as complete a team as exists in today’s NFL, while most teams have an elite QB, elite runner or an elite defense, the Texans are on the scale of good to great in every facet of the game. Schaub, while not flashy, does a lot with just one true WR and shows if you’re accurate, have an offensive line to throw behind and have an terrific RB, you can still minimize mistakes. While this is the era of QBs, Schaub is the exception to the rule. He can throw for 300 if he has to, but he is a new school of game manager that blows whatever the hell Trent Dilfer was out of the water.

    And that defense. Losing Mario Williams was supposed to hurt them in ways unseen, and in a matter of speaking, it has. The secondary has shown some cracks when there isn’t the pressure up front. But as a whole, the unit is complete and more than passable. Houston is still my pick for the Super Bowl in the AFC, and if the Pats pull this game out (and cover), I’ll be more than happy to eat crow here.

  • rodofdisaster

    My picks-

    Denver (win)

    Chiefs +6

    Texans +3.5

    Bears -3

    Dolphins +10

    ESSAY:

    Navy -7

    Has anyone in Vegas actually seen Army play? This is one god-awful team. This is a team that lost 23-3 to STONY BROOK. I’m sorry. I just can’t get behind that team with only seven.

    I will watch the game as I always do and marvel at the men and women who selflessly give themeselves to the defense of this nation. Army can be an Army of One and Be All They Can Be…but in the end, it’s the sailors who will come out on top in this one. Expect a plebe QB to lead Navy with poise as they throttle one of the weakest Army squads in years.

    This game could be over early. Perhaps some Eagles fans will show up and start booing Santa Claus.

    • Believelander

      Philadelphia fans are terrible fans people, that is something we can all agree on.

  • p_forever

    for sure i want:

    navy -7 army
    new england -3.5 texans
    green bay -6.5 detroit

    back with the rest and an essay too

  • actovegin1armstrong

    essay. Denver, win

    Navy -7
    Patriots -3.5

    Chiefs -6

    Grackles +2.5 over the RG3′s

    Vikings +3

  • Believelander

    These are my Jim Kanicki Mandated (Fake) (Real) ity Football Picks. If I win it all, I want to donate all my points to Biki, because there’s nothing I desire more than to read about how much money he won at Cheddar Bay for 8 months:

    Army +7 @ Navy (Fake All Play) – I don’t follow Army or Navy. I was forced into making this pick. Why would you do this to me?

    Arizona +10.5 @ Seattle – 11 points is a lot of points to beat a good defense by. The Ballad of Ryan Lindley ends this weekend anyway.

    Houston +3.5 @ New England – Never bet against Belichick. HOWEVER, know what a chump defense that survives by generating tons of takeaways while their offense doesn’t generate giveaways hates? An offense predicated on controlling the football. Know what a super high flying fast paced passing attack hates? An offense predicated on controlling the football.Also, J.J. Watt. If they get down, Matt Schaub, the Blue Collarback, has shown repeatedly that he can and will throw for lots of yards and touchdowns if he has to pick up his defense. I think Patriots win by 2 or 3.

    (2 more coming)

    San Diego +9.5 @ Pittsburgh (Fake Essay) – Ben Roethlisberger’s injury was so particularly dangerous he slept in a chair so he didn’t accidentally die. It’s not a bathroom stall locked in with a smelly prison inmate who’s been mainlining male enhancement pills, but it’ll have to do. But anyway, what that actually means is that he wasn’t really able to practice doing anything besides being a fat jerk, which he’s already a master of. Oh, and crying newborn. I’m sure all you parents in the audience know how awesome that is. I’d cry too if my father was Ben Roethlisberger. Oh, and Polamalu is back. Who cares? He’s like 93 in football years and hasn’t played in like 14 football years.

    Also, the Steelers offense wasn’t exactly an impressive juggernaut with him in this season – they scored a max of 31 points against the Raiders in a loss. Congrats. Any momentum and chemistry developed between hilariously incompatible Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley will have been deflated by this last month. Also, Philip Rivers is a complete chump but his team is not. They will keep this from being a blow out and he will find a way to float some passes to make it look closer than it is, and lose by about 7. Norv Turner’s apoplexy will turn him so purple, Mike Tomlin will call SETI on his ass.

    • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

      BAM! this is gold. GOLD.
      youre being booked under pateslvblk who has retired from this year’s games.

      • CleveLandThatILove

        Like for B’land, dislike for less X chromos in the mix.

        • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

          WHAT THE SHIT?

          • CleveLandThatILove

            What?

        • Believelander

          WHY MUST I BE BLAND? WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

          its funny because its an ironic nickname

    • CleveLandThatILove

      Now was that so hard?!?!

      • Believelander

        It’s never hard to bloviate when you’re me. It’s just hard to be correct. Not that YOU would know anything about that.

  • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

    army +7. i do love me some trent steelman. army punished me hard last time i picked them. but temple’s line mustve been 50 lbs bigger per person and just crushed army on the LOS. and while i have heartburn over army’s turnover tendencies, this game comes down to heart. final game for four year starting qb? 10 year navy winning streak? and youre giving me a TD? what the hell, i’ll ride army for my essay.

    elsewhere:
    2. browns -6 vs chiefs. breakout home game. btw, im resigned that shurmur wins out; comes back; and embarks on an andy-reid-esque era of unsatisfying 9-6/8-8 seasons and playoff failures.

    3. rams +3 at bills. rams are so easy to ignore. the current team is starting to remind me of the cover machine that they were in 2010.
    4. dolphins +10 at niners. dolphins play gutty. niners seem always offensively challenged. love harbaugh the leader and the coach-in-the-literal-sense. however as a game-putter-awayer, he’s no belichick.
    5. giants -5 vs saints. coughlin in december. here is where the giants kick it into overdrive and ultimately win the SB.
    6. texans +3.5 at pats. the bizzarro coughlin, pats have clinched and are in their annual december coast.

    • Believelander

      It would be SO Shurmurball if Shurmur’s teams were so inconsistent that he managed to lead us to multiple 15-game seasons.

      Also, nice shot calling Army on the essay. No way was I ballsy enough for that.

  • bobby_slick

    Here goes…
    Oakland +10.5 (Loss)
    Navy -7
    Indy -5.5
    Packers -6.5
    Cardinals +10.5
    Browns -6
    Essay to follow…

  • stkoran

    * Army +7 over Navy

    • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

      WHY?

      • stkoran

        Navy seems to be too obvious. Figured that everyone would pick them. Army has certainly been awful (see 23-3 loss to Stony Brook; 63-32 loss to Temple (last week)), but has had some decent showings (see 41-21 win over Air Force v. Navy’s 28-21 win v. the same; 41-40 loss to NIU; 30-22 loss to Ball State). I’m sure this pick will be a disaster, but nothing can be worse than my MTSU +10 over Arkansas St. pick from last week, so I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

        • Petefranklin

          Goongahla goongahla!

        • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

          Thanks.

  • architectartvandelay

    Navy -7 over Army – Family ties to the Naval Academy so there is no way I am picking anyone but Navy in this game.

    Bengals -3 over Cowboys – I am going to keep riding the Bengals plus the Cowboys are banged up on both sides.

    Cardinals -10.5 over Seahawks – Cardinals played are horrible game last week. In a division game they keep the score respectable.

    Bears -3 over Vikings – Bears bounce back

    Browns -6 over Chiefs – I told myself after last Sunday to bet against KC just because of the emotional roller coaster Of course I said this not realizing that the Browns were the next opponent. Nevertheless I am sticking with my gut.

    Lions +6.5 over Pack (Essay) – This pick is more about the Packers than the Lions. The Packers have issues protecting Rogers and stopping anyone on defense. If they didn’t have Rogers playing QB they would be a 2 win team.

    Detroit has a solid D line and will be able to pressure Rogers(See the Giants game for a recent example). On offense the addition of Mikel Leshoure will give Detroit the balance they need and allow Calvin Johnson & Stafford to do their thing.

    Ultimately Rogers will prevail but Detroit will give them a game and would love nothing more than to knock them out of 1st in the North. There is also a potential look ahead by GB as they play the Bears next.

  • CleveLandThatILove

    Home stretch, kids.

    Navy -7 Army
    Colts -5.5 Titans
    Bengals -3 Boys
    Pack -6.5 Lions
    ***Browns -6 Chiefs

    ***The Browns are coming into this game 100% healthy, which is kind of amazing in week 15. Shurmur and Jauron have the full dinner menu in front of them. Home crowd, winning streak (2 is a streak here, y’all).

    The Chiefs have nothing left to motivate them. Their season has been a dismal disappointment, with the football talent they have to work with. That adrenaline bump they got last week has now dissipated, and reality will be a heavy load to carry.

    A thorn for KC this year has been a turnover ratio of -21. For an offense that can barely do anything productive when they have the ball, giving it back at that rate is devastating, obviously. The Browns are currently at +7 in turnover ratio. Who else thinks the D has a fierce competition within for takeaways?

    The lone positive for KC has been their run game. But Jamaal Charles provides most of the ground production, and being doubly connected to the deaths a week ago it is hard to imagine him having much left to give this week. So maybe Hillis gets the call~ Hello, is anybody home? Not really. OK, bye then.

    • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

      welcome back to the top 10, ms. CLTIL.
      i was so enthralled with gavin’s rally last week that i missed your progress. (attached shows both of your progress if you look at it upside down.)

      • CleveLandThatILove

        Oh my.

  • Sam Sneeda

    Army +7 over Navy
    Cowboys +3 over Bengals
    Panthers +3.5 over Falcons
    Saints +5 over Giants
    Vikings +3 over Bears
    Rams +3 over Bills $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    I need to get hot right now and for the rest of the way to make the playoffs so I might as well fade the public this week. RAMS! I feel like I’m on an island of few believers that STL is a good team. This game is so pointless in all the playoff hunts but the rams are solid…better than BUF, way better. SOS #4 vs #29 too. I read that the Bills O-line is really banged up. Gimme Jeff Fisher as a dog this week…in December…Steven Jackson…underrated Rams defense (12th in total). Gimme James Laurinitis this week to score a TD.

    16-14 RAMS

  • munasrevenge

    I share GG’s dread this week. After a slow and steady rise to the cusp of relevancy, I’m forced to roll the dice with the crapshoot that is the NFL.

    Balls.

    Rams (+3) over Bills (Rams have a great shot to win this outright)
    Colts (-5.5) over Titans (Enough veterans on this Colts team to not let them get overwhelmed; a win they need to stay in control of their playoff destiny)
    Bears (-3) over Vikings (Bears are angry and need this game, and they can concentrate on AP, and without Harvin, Vikings don’t have much else to work with.)
    Cardinals (+10.5) over Seahawks (If this were even only 10 I’d be more wary; 10.5 is too good to pass up with their solid defense and Seattle’s less than prolific offense.)

    * Navy (-7) over Army

    ***

    Much like last week, I think bookies and gamblers don’t know what to make of the Steelers. Last week, coming off a historically inept game against the Browns, the Steelers defense was getting way too many points against an overrated Ravens team. This week, the roles are reversed. They are coming off a huge emotional “upset” win, and their starting QB is back! And they are playing a “terrible” Chargers team. And suddenly they can’t GIVE enough points away. (In fairness, this line has come down a bit from the opening line that is locked for us.) Even at 4-8, the Chargers still have a positive point differential on the season without any ridiculous 45-3 type of games, which for the most part means a lot of close losses and some bad “luck”. “Luck” of course in this case means Rivers (and Norv) being terrible in the 4th quarter. And let’s not forget, the Steelers weren’t exactly the 2007 Patriots when Ben was at QB this season. And who knows how good he will actually be? He could be one hit away from being knocked out of the game again, or “bravely” playing injured, or even from death, if you believe some of the louder hype about his rib injury. All in all, I see this game breaking one of three ways:

    Steelers steamroll the Chargers
    Chargers choke away the game in the final 2:00
    Chargers win a game as part of another miracle December run

    I put the odds of the last 2 scenarios at about 70%, which makes my essay pick this week:

    Chargers (+9.5) over Steelers

    —(It was really hard not to take Jaguars (+3) over Jets and Chiefs (+6) over Browns. This would be such a Browns game if they lost, plus let’s not forget their win streak consists of a 6-point win against a team with 7 turnovers and a 3 point win against one of the worst teams in the league. Granted their playing another one of the worst teams in the league this week, but I sure don’t trust them to beat ANYONE by 6.)

  • Dennis Hemingway

    Army +7 over Navy
    Jets -2.5 over Jaguars
    Titans +5.5 over Colts
    Niners -10 over Dolphins
    Cowboys +3 over Bengals
    Panthers +3.5 over Falcons ***

    *** Falcons are the worst 11-1 team ever. They keep winning these
    tight games, which is something, but I still don’t believe in them. Right now they are on cruise control to have the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs so this game isn’t as urgent. Cam Newton has been coming on as of
    late. Besides getting blown out by the Broncos, the Panthers last 6 losses are all by less than 7 points. And besides the Chiefs loss last week, their tight losses have come against playoff teams (Bucs, Broncos, Bears, Seahawks, and Falcons.) Give me the Panthers and give me my biscuits.

    • Petefranklin

      Almost a mirror of my picks. Since we are tied I expect that we both move up.

      • Dennis Hemingway

        Not bad Mr Franklin. Not bad at all.

        • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

          yeah, this is a little eerie.

        • Petefranklin

          Luck O the Niners!

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Harbaugh handshakes Saturday pick

    Navy -7 vs army (all play)

  • squeekycleen

    all play: army
    rest later

  • Bevilacqua

    All Play: Navy (-7) over Army

    • Bevilacqua

      Redskins (-2.5) over Ravens
      Bears (-3) over Vikings
      Panthers (+3.5) over Falcons
      Packers (-6.5) over Lions
      ESSAY: Chiefs (+6) over Browns

      I went into this week thinking that picking the Browns would be a good move, given that the Chiefs have been on an emotional roller coaster, and after last week’s heartwarming win, they would probably run out of steam. But then I saw the line. Just too many points. So even though I think the Browns have been making some nice strides lately, I don’t think they’re ready to cover a 6-point spread against a 2-10 team, so I guess I’m not as optimistic as I thought.

      Stats of the week: Josh Gordon and Greg Little, who both seem like they have a lot of raw talent and upside, are still only rated 77 and 74 in Madden 13. Those are not good ratings. Those scouts spend a lot of time putting those numbers together, so I’m pretty discouraged.

      Brandon Weeden has a good chance to throw for the 2nd most yards in Browns’ history. The top 3 are Brian Sipe with 4,132 in ’80, Sipe with 3,876 in ’81, and Bernie with 3,854 in ’86. Do you also realize that Bernie only topped 20 TD passes once in his career? He threw for 22 in the strike-shortened ’87 season. That was also the only season that his QB rating was over 90 as a Brown. I’m not citing these numbers to say that Weeden is good. These numbers just prove how much the game has evolved.

  • Chris P.

    God…. Navy seems too obvious… They’re so much better…. Seems like a trap… I’m not able to resist though…

    Navy -7

    • Chris P.

      Mr Kanicki –
      If thou est ready , I haveth accomplished the impossible.

      I do reckon you have mentioned that you could not be caught.

      But alas, you have been tracked down.

      I offer you the following: one set of bowl games, whereas you and I pick ONLY Western Athletic Conference games.

      I propose that this challengd be dubbed a WAC-off. Seems oddly appropriate.

      As for the rest. It seems oddly fortuitous for gamblers that Mr. Roethlisbsrger be given almost 2 touchdowns by his very existence. Ben is a very good quarterback, the prototype for Mr. Newton, the dream Browns quarterback… A good quarterback he is, but two touchdowns a week into his return he is not.

      In the gimmie of all gimmes….

      San Diego +9.5

      Chiefs +6?¿?!¡!
      Panthers +3.5
      Ravens +2.5
      Bengals -3

  • http://twitter.com/nmesha Nick

    I love whales, thanks for the video.

    Broncos (w)

    Navy (-7) vs Army – One grandfather was in the Navy, one was in the Army. Wash. A friend of a friend plays for Navy and was a really cool guy in high school. I also have a picture of him with two girls making out. Navy rolls.

    Colts (-5.5) vs Titans –There is some magic happening this season for Indy, so I’m not going to fight it. Tennessee’s O-line is in shambles, and they will struggle in the dome.

    Packers (-6.5) vs Lions – Could Schwartz be a worse coach than Shurmer? The players certainly seem to be running the asylum over there. With a two score lead last week late in the 4th, I couldn’t believe the Lions were throwing the ball around and not running clock. Of course, they gave Luck just enough time to win the game in another heartbreaking loss. This is going to be a Sunday night game where the game is over by the 2nd quarter.

    Rams (+3) vs Bills – the Rams are tough man. You have to appreciate the way they played against the 49ers, so I think their toughness wins out against the Bills.

    Bears (-3) vs Vikings –Christian? Ponder? NFL Quarterback? Really? I believe in strong names, and he doesn’t have one. He also doesn’t have Percy Harvin anymore. The Bears only need to be concerned with one person, AP. Granted, he’s a beast, and it’s going to be a long day for reserve linebackers Nick Roach, and Geno Hayes. Urlacher is out until the playoffs, and they are 7-15 without him. Not good. With several players over 30, the long season is wearing down the Bears Defense, and they’ve allowed 100 yard rushers in the last several games. Also not a good sign, so AP will have a big day, but I don’t think that translates to TDs, the Bears bend not break defense will stand tall in the red zone.

    Jay Cutler is much better at football than Christian Ponder. Jay’s been red hot since coming back from the concussion. The last time these
    two teams played in Chicago it was 28-10. Why are we expecting anything different? The Bears lost a tough one last week against Seattle; they are not going to want to lose two in a row and should be appropriately motivated to win this game.

    • http://twitter.com/nmesha Nick

      Cheddar master Jim, essay is bears pick. Thank you for all your hard work.

  • oxr

    All-Play Navy -7 over Army, for no particular reason.

  • http://www.redright88.com/ Tom_RedRight88

    Denver -10
    Navy -7
    Chicago -3
    Dallas +3
    New Orleans +5
    Baltimore +2.5

  • CLEinMPLS

    Navy -7 for the all play

  • BIKI024

    Cheddar Plays:

    Dolphins +10

  • WooMike

    Remainder of my Cheddar Bay Plays:

    All Play: Navy -7 – Just can’t bring myself to take Army

    Broncos – WIN
    Ravens +2.5 – I don’t really know what the Ravens problem is, but somehow I think they rally and stifle RGIII and the ‘skins.
    Bears -3 – Percy Harvin-less Vikes means 8 men in the box. Even demi-God Adrian Petersen can’t overcome that.
    ***Falcons -3.5
    Rams +3 – I think the Rams are halfway decent, and the Bills less so.

    ***The Falcons have burned me before this year, but I think this is a game they definitely win. Falcons are primed to play the nobody believes in us card. But they need to start showing that they really are one of the best teams in the NFL. No better time than to blow out the Panthers. Falcons are also looking to get closer to locking up that #1 seed. And boy do they need it. No better way to break the first round playoff lose jinx than to get homefiled throughout the playoffs. Anyways, Falcons all day here @ -3.5.

  • Petefranklin

    Since Pete’s draconian contest rules prevent me from playing under 56 for my all play, give me ARMY +7 for the all play.

  • trashycamaro

    Army. More tomorrow.

    • trashycamaro

      Army (WIN)

      Chargers +9.5 over Steelers I get that Ben is back. And he is certainly an upgrade from Chaz Batch, a qb who I watched play at EMU when I was in high school. But the Steelers are in a “just get it done” mode between the injuries they are accumulating, difficulties at running back, and inept pass blocking. I fully expect the Steelers to win, but look for a 3-5 point win. In 12 games, the Steelers have been involved in a game that was decided by more than 7 points 3 times, and none in the past 5 weeks. We all know San Diego is bad and fading but the Steelers are not going to pull out all the stops against them. Even better, according to Football Outsiders DVOA the teams are relatively close in individual phases (though not overall) Pit-SD overall 13-22, off 20-22, def 11-15, st 16-20. Quick hit – Pit shouldn’t be favored by 9.5 over just about anyone.

      Bills -3 over Rams

      Dolphins +10 over 49ers

      Cardinals +10.5 over Seahawks

      Lions +7 over Packers

      no

  • willy loman

    Army +7 over Navy

    • willy loman

      Ravens +2.5 over Redskins
      Titans +5.5 over Colts
      Rams +3 over Bills
      Browns -6 over Chiefs

      • willy loman

        ESSAY

        Patriots -3.5 over Texans

        As noted by PFF (ESPN insider only: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8729472/nfl-houston-texans-secondary-stop-new-enlgand-patriots), the Texans’ pass defense has struggled mightily since Jonathan Joseph’s groin injury. Calvin Johnson, Justin Blackmon, and Mt. Union’s very own Cecil Shorts have feasted on Houston’s secondary, and Brandon Lloyd/Wes Welker/Hernandez will be the next to do so. The Texans’ other defensive strength? Getting to the quarterback via heavy blitzing, which Tom Brady thrives against. There’ll be multiple times tonight where Brady picks up on a blitz presnap and subsequently hit his hot receiver for a big gain. Also, since 2010, the Patriots are undefeated in the season’s second half. Their best is yet to come; the Texans were at their best in Week 7. Patriots 27, Texans 10.

  • zarathustra

    I don’t really know much about the all-play and was planning on all week to reflexively take the points in a rivalry game, That’s what I did last year for this pick and worked out. But then I took a quick look at the history of the game and since 2001 which was the last time Army won last year was the only year they would have covered a 7 point spread. I absolutely hate laying 7 in a game like this, but my all-play pick is:

    Navy-7 over Army

  • tfloodmc

    Navy -7 over army
    bears -3 over vikings
    cardinals +10.5 over seattle
    buffalo -3 over rams
    bengals -3 over dallas
    browns -6 over chiefs
    Like the browns big on this game, not just because of the tragedy that happened to the chiefs, but browns defense is going to have another strong game against brady quinn, and trent richardson should have a 100yrd game on the ground. cleveland fans have not given heckert and shurmur enough credit in they have finally developed a team that can run the ball and stop the run. It is surprising to me that heckert would be asked to leave after a great draft, and building a young team that wont have to rely on getting over paid FA. Also Shurmur is in a no win situation here. If he wins people will just say he should have won that game, they still didnt play good, and if he loses everyone will say he is not a head coach (which might be deserved). they will win three in a row after this and I dont care who you play in the nfl three wins in a row means something good is happening.

  • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

    The only reason the Army/Navy line is as small as it is is because the military industrial complex and its accomplices John Feinstein and CBS don’t want you to know what a mismatch this game really is. Plus, if goats and boats is wrong, I don’t want to be right. http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/article/media_slots/photos/000/630/772/bill-the-goat_original.jpg?1354224031

    Would make this my essay if there wasn’t a 9 Blingee Frolicking Kittens lock on the board tomorrow. Navy -7.

    • GrandRapidsRustlers

      I have no idea what your lock is now but I do have a name for the Detroit Tigers now…Frolicking Blingee Kittens just sounds much better.

  • bobby_slick

    Essay:

    Packers -6.5

    After such a good season last year, where people thought Detroit had finally put the ghosts of Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Joey Harrington to bed…they go out and totally lay an egg this season. They have the best WR in the game, and a pretty solid young QB in Stafford to get him the ball…However, it seems as though Jim Schwartz has completely outShurmered himself throughout the year and fails every single week to get this team ready to play. There is no discipline in the locker room and this week, once again, the Lions come up short…way short

    The Lions are 4-8 and now have to go into Lambeau with nothing to play for, and face off against Aaron Rodgers…all Rodgers has done lately is lead his team to wins in 6 of the last 7 and has thrown for 29 TDs to 8 INTs this year. Even without Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings can step in opposite Randall Cobb and make plays for ARod on the outside. I expect another big win for the Pack

  • Harbaugh Handshakes

    Harbaugh Handshakes Week 15 picks

    Denver (w)

    Navy (L)

    Green Bay -6.5 vs The Lions

    Falcons -3.5 @ carolina

    Da Bears -3 @ Minnesota

    Jets -2.5 @ the Jags (essay)

    It was one of those weeks where i looked at the sheet and thought man I don’t see anything I love. So for my essay I settled on the Jets. Bottom line is the Jets aren’t as bad as Mark Sanchez made them look last week. That on top of being the NEW YORK Jets things really got out of hand in the media. I’m personally tired of the Jets being the most talked about team in the league even though they are one if not the most irrelevent. I feel like I’ll know if this bet is lock city after the Jets first drive. I’m expecting Sanchez to be so happy to not be playing in New York and in an empty stadium his performance should improve dramatically. Not to mention if he plays horribly his career is over. If Sanchez plays well Jets win by 10, if he plays decent 6, If he plays awful the Jets could still win by 3. So that’s why i’m going with the Jets.

  • squeekycleen

    Rest of the flails, fade away:

    Essay Pick: TItans (using my no essay freebie week, can’t imagine trying to get 100 words out of these clowns anyway)

    Others:
    Carolina
    Cleveland
    Minnesota
    NY Giants

  • Petefranklin

    All play Army, Essay: Carolina +3.5, Browns-6,Titans+5.5, Vikings +3, SF-10, Essay: Despite the record I dont think these two teams are worlds apart. Today, outside the dome, Carolina even has the better QB! Newton has reeled in his turnovers lately to the tune of 2 in the past 5 games, while accounting for 12 TDs himself.The Panthers defense is pretty banged up but I expect an all out effort to knock off the divisional winners. They should have beaten this falcon team already this year, but choked away a 30-28 loss. I’m expecting the same kind of game today, that being tight at the end, so catching the hook becomes invaluable for this play. The wise guys are on the Panthers also, so look for a much better effort today than last week, where all I need is for this game to stay close. Dont be suprised by an upset though as the Falcons have pretty much wrapped up home field even with a loss today.

    • Petefranklin

      Please get rid of the Vikings and add the Eagles +7.5, thank you. Reid 10-3ATS as coach of 6.5 and over dog!

      • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

        I can’t believe you just played an Andy Reid trend. Keg of balls.

        • Petefranklin

          OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

  • CLEVTA

    Please replace my Giants pick with Vikings +3. No Urlacher & Chicago has been a mirage all season. They’ve lived off of turnovers & defensive tds. Not sustainable & you’ve seen the reversion to the mean the last few weeks. Jared Allen should be able to feast off of that awful Bears o-line on turf. Thx

  • oxr

    Despite going 3-3, I managed to salvage a decent showing last week – and continue skulking in the vicinity of the dotted red line – by hitting on the AP and essay, an option which is already out the window this time. Here goes:

    Navy L

    Chargers +9.5 over Steelers (9)
    Browns -6 over Chiefs (23.8)
    Bengals -3 over Cowboys (14.9)
    Packers -6.5 over Lions (20.5)

    Bears -3 over Vikings (27.8)

    Just for giggles, the numbers in brackets represent the differences between teams in Football Outsiders’ Weighted (ie emphasizing recent performance) DVOA stat, which is one place to look for potential value picks. (Although the biggest discrepancy on the board this week would’ve been Denver-Oakland at 73 points and the Broncos won by 13 – I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on Seattle-Arizona). Of course anything can happen in any given game, but each of these picks has something about them I like at least a little bit: either an inviting point spread, home field advantage, or the Chiefs being involved. Ultimately, though, I’m guessing the Harvin injury is going to drag down the Vikings offense more than the assorted defensive injuries are going to hurt Chicago. It’s a divisional game, though, so who the hell knows – maybe Peterson has one of his 250-yard explosions or something. Still, I feel like virtually everything has to go right – including a full-blown Cutler meltdown – for the Vikings to win this one.

  • zarathustra

    I didn’t have any money on the Army-Navy game yesterday but I was still depressed to have given away a cheddar win due to changing my pick to Navy at the last minute. To console myself I took a long walk. I wandered aimlessly for hours until I found myself in an unknown forest. I was lost. It was dark. I don’t mind saying that I was afraid. Then, I swear to god, I heard banjo music. Thoughts of Deliverance raced through my mind. I was frozen in horror. Some relief came when I recognized this wasn’t ominous banjo music, but a whimsical type of banjo music. My fear abated and curiosity led me toward the music. And you will never believe what I saw, but a frog . . . playing the banjo. I looked on in bemused silence until it noticed me.

    “Hi there,” the frog spoke.

    Holy shit. A talking frog. I responded. “Hi.”

    “Do you have a name?”

    “Why yes. I am Zarathustra of Cheddar Bay.”
    “I’m Kermit.”

    “How did you learn to play the banjo? Or speak English for that matter?”

    He was visibly miffed by my questions. “I might ask you how you learned English?”

    “Ok Kermit. Just relax. I didn’t mean to insult you. It’s just that I’ve never come across a talking frog before.”

    He strummed on the banjo a bit. “Oh, it’s ok. I’m used to it. I’ve been dealing with speciesism by whole life.”

    “Do you write your own songs or do you do strictly covers.”

    “I write my own. “

    “I’d love to hear one.”

    He again strummed on the banjo.

    “Why are there so many songs about rainbows
    and what’s on the other side?

    Rainbows are visions, but only illusions,
    and rainbows have nothing to hide.
    So we’ve been told and some choose to believe it.
    I know they’re wrong, wait and see.
    Someday we’ll find it, the rainbow connection.
    The lovers, the dreamers and me.”

    Kermit continued with his song, but my mind wandered. Rainbows. Last week there were some great reasons given for laying the points with Hawaii, but I got spooked by the unanimity on it—failing to recognize it as a reincarnation of the early season brosef specials— and decided to put some money on South Alabama. . . because Biki has a system.

    Kermit sang.

    “Have you been half asleep and have you heard voices?

    I’ve heard them calling my name.
    Is this the sweet sound that called the young sailors.
    The voice might be one and the same.

    I’ve heard it too many times to ignore it.
    It’s something that I’m supposed to be.”

    I interrupted him. “You too? You hear the voices? So do I. They’re always talking to me about football games and the illusion of reality and a lot of messianic ramblings which I have to say I find quite compelling, but mostly football games. This week the voices told me to take Army with the all-play but I rebelled.

    Navy -7 over Army (L)

    Raiders +10.5 over Broncos (L)

    Where I referred to wagering on Carson Palmer and his merry band of incompetents as an “opportunity.”

    Dolphins +10 over 49ers

    Cowboys +3 over Bengals

    Panthers +3.5 over Falcons

    Jets -2.5 over Jaguars***

    The Jaguars are much better off with Gabbert gone, but they aren’t good enough to withstand the current injuries to their roster. No Cecil Shorts, no MJD, and no Jennings. Chad Henne is a dick, a mf-ing dick, but I also think he is a serviceable qb who can win games, but this week his former coach is on the other side and surely alerted the Jets defensive coaches to his weaknesses. Sanchez is not a good qb, but he is also not a consistently bad qb. I expect him to bounce back and if he doesn’t Tebow comes in and it becomes a Jets home game and they definitely win

    • zarathustra

      Also like redskins-2 chiefs +7 eagles +7.5 for non-cheddar

  • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

    Essay: Chiefs +6 over Browns

    If the Browns lose today they’ll have solidified their status as the same 4-12 dumpster fire that everyone knew they were at the beginning of the season (as opposed to the 5-12 dumpster fire that everyone knew they were). Anyone who knows anything about these things knows that they’ve only been able to keep so many games close this season because of the Universal Force of Bad Action that punishes people who think it’s a good idea to make obvious wagers on football games. Case in point: the Browns +7 turnover differential is good for 9th best in the league, which is mostly luck, and teams not taking the Browns seriously enough to hang on to the ball tightly.

    Now here come the Chiefs who everyone thought would be decent this season, and their NFL worst -21 turnover ratio. The UFBA finally works against the Browns today because everyone’s expecting them to take this one. FOOLS. Chiefs are a Nine Blingee Frolicking Kittens Lock.

    In other action, give me Redskins -2.5 (love this one, too), Saints -5 (because Roger Goodell), Lions +6.5 (glutton for punishment) and will round out the slate later with a pick for tomorrow night’s banger.

  • CLEinMPLS

    Panthers +3.5
    Ravens +2.5

  • CLEinMPLS

    Colts -5.5
    Giants -5

    Essay coming with packers pick later on

  • D Quatts

    D Quatts con’t:

    Navy -7 (lose)
    Titans +5.5
    Bengals -3
    Giants -5

    Back later for my money pick and another…

  • bupalos

    With 2 losses already this week, it looks like the writing is on the wall for old bupalos. But if its time to go die on the hill, at least let it be an orange one with a brown and white stripe down the middle. I have no idea what the recent tragedy will do to the chiefs, but my supposition is that any thing that serves to sober up a romeo crennel led team is probably going to make them play better football. Nonetheless, shurmurball is reaching its apex, which I figure is just about 7 points above the chiefs. I’ll lash myself to the mast and once again cry CMFB for all the ched.

    • bupalos

      I’ll gets some falcons too.

      • bupalos

        I have an amazing ability to miss non-essay picks. Let’s close this baby out with the pack tonight and the texans tomorrow. What do I get for having the highest essay and lowest non-essay percentages in Cheddar history?

        • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

          this is indeed unprecedented.
          12-2-1 on essays pretty awesome.
          and since five of the wins were the CMFB some sort of biki award seems apropos. are you perchance in need of canine hydration tools?

  • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

    Biki wants Browns, Cowboys and Titans for Cheddar.

    • https://twitter.com/jimkanicki jimkanicki

      which is essay designate? calling it titans pending correction..

  • mo_by_dick

    For my #CheddarBay plays today, I’ll have:

    Chargers +9.5 @ Steelers

    Bears -3 @ Vikings (ESSAY)

    Cardinals +10.5 @ Seahawks

    Falcons -3.5 @ Panthers

    Bengals -3 vs. Cowboys

    While I should simply submit the humpback whale feeding video as my essay, I feel that this Bears/Vikings game is ripe for the picking. The bath salts are obviously divided evenly among Christian Ponder* and the offensive playcallers in Minnesota. Last week Adrian Peterson was being Adrian Peterson and Ponder was throwing red zone interceptions in early downs. Bears turnover juju may very well have run its course and normalized, but Matt Forte seems back to normal as well. Also once I named my fantasy football team “Brandon Marshall.”

    *https://twitter.com/ClevelandFrowns/status/275332937556303872

  • http://www.facebook.com/flannery.mckenna Flannery McKenna

    Jets
    Cowboys
    Texans
    Packers
    **Redskins

    Skins were even more impressive in the second match up with the Giants this season. It’s not just Griffin. He’s the genuine article, but the defense is damn solid especially considering they’re missing four starters. Schottenheimer deserves an award for the offense he’s designed around RGIII. The pistol is maddeningly confusing at times and the punch from the running game wears defenses out over the course of a game. They’re well motivated, balanced, and I just fucking know they’re going to hit stride and go all the way and make me feel like an absolute moron for not laying a 100 bucks when they were 65 to 1 after trading up for the Rams pick. Yes I’m going to regret that. Ravens are bunk too. Love this pick.

  • p_forever

    Hey 3 more picks – Miami, seattle, giants. New england is my essay pick.

  • D Quatts

    Lions +6.5***
    Patriots -3.5

    ***keeping the theme of rolling with the Lions on a weekly basis, I find myself in that position again. After going through one of the worst money pick/all play losing streaks in Cleveland Frowns Cheddar Bay history that has me at 0 for my last 9 (a total of 0 points out of a possible 17.5 points), Megatron is going to help me change my luck. I think this is going to be a tight division battle on a crucial Sunday night. For that, I will take the points and continue to root for the lions. I think Green Bay’s injuries catch up with them tonight. Looking for a big game from the lions D against Rogers and Co.

    Quatts

  • D Quatts

    Double posting….something happened.

    Lions*** (with essay)
    Patriots

    Hope this works

  • CLEinMPLS

    Packers -6.5 (essay)

    The Lions are ready to throw in the towel. They really have nothing to play for at this point. The fact that this line is less than 7 points put me over e edge. Aaron Rodgers at home on Sunday night against a crappy secondary should be an ass kicking. I don’t think Detroit can keep up. Their only chance is the crappy olins for the pack, but even with that, Rodgers mobility should be enough to keep him alive. Nothing seems to be going Detroits way this year, and tonight should be no different.

  • http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/ Cleveland Frowns

    Will take America’s Team, the Greatriots, for one last lonely slice of cheese.

Previous post:

Next post: