If you thought it was hard enough to believe Mike Homgren last week when he said he expected the 2012 Browns to make “a pretty good jump,” here comes the people who risk real money on these promises to say that if Pat Shurmur’s charges are going to make any kind of significant jump next season, it’ll be backward.

As reported last week, Cantor Gaming, which operates the sports books at seven of Las Vegas’s largest and most popular casino resorts, including Hard Rock, Tropicana, Venetian, Palazzo, and the Palms, has released point spreads for the first 16 weeks of the 2012  NFL season, now open for public wagering; and the Cleveland Browns aren’t favored to win a football game in a single one of these 16 weeks.

Here’s the breakdown:

Week 1. Eagles (-7) at Browns
Week 2. Browns (+7) at Bengals
Week 3. Bills (-1) at Browns
Week 4. Browns (+10) at Ravens
Week 5. Browns (+9.5) at Giants
Week 6. Bengals (-2) at Browns
Week 7. Browns (+3) at Colts
Week 8. Chargers (-3.5) at Browns
Week 9. Ravens (-5.5) at Browns
Week 10. BYE [Presumably also favored over Browns LOLOL be here all week.]
Week 11. Browns (+7.5) at Cowboys
Week 12. Steelers (-6) at Browns
Week 13. Browns (+4.5) at Raiders
Week 14. Chiefs (-1.5) at Browns
Week 15. Redskins (-1) at Browns
Week 16. Browns (+8.5) at Broncos
Week 17. Browns at Steelers [No line for this one, but let's guess Steelers rest starters for playoffs, still favored by 7.]

Notably, these numbers were released after the Browns added at least three presumable starters, including a star running back, in last month’s draft. And while it’s fair to point out that pre-season predictions are just pre-season predictions, and often wrong, again, this is different in that these guys are taking real wagers on the ones here. (Covers.com reports that “[t]his is by far the earliest Cantor has ever done this.”)

The point spreads reflect bettors’ perceptions of the Browns chances in 2012, and while these perceptions too can be grossly inaccurate (and will be adjusted in real time as the season progresses), there’s always an element of extremely intelligent and well-informed bettors, those who make a living at it, who influence these numbers. And though the Browns did end last season on a four game win streak against the spread, they lost every one of those games to opponents who well understood by that point that they wouldn’t have to open the playbook or show up any more than semi-conscious to beat the Browns.

So it’s Fifty Million Dollar Mike on one side, and Vegas (and the folks at NFL.com) on the other. Who’s feeling lucky?

—————

About that NFL.com column that was edited to delete references to the probability that the 2012 Browns finish 0-16, a Berea insider told us that the column was edited in response to Holmgren having called the league office to complain. The folks at Cantor Gaming might want to screen calls this week.

Dan Gilbert’s Cleveland casino opened last night to incredibly fawning reviews in the local press and from some people with Twitter accounts.

“Not even two hours after it opened, the Horseshoe Casino paid out its first $50,000 jackpot,” NewsChannel5′s Jen Steer reports.

A casino that will spend millions annually to market itself and will take in tens of millions in annual revenue paid out a $50,000 jackpot within two hours of opening, on the busiest night it will ever have? What are the odds!?

“A line outside the casino [that formed at around 4 p.m.] wrapped around the block until 2:45 a.m.,” writes Steer, who also reports that “most people NewsChannel5 spoke with loved the new casino.”

Most people who were willing to wait in line for hours to get drunk and gamble loved the new casino on opening night, and Steer has some quotes to prove it.

“It’s a beautiful casino and we kind of like came out even and we had a good time,” said Chris Butler, a Cleveland resident. “Everybody that worked in there was very nice.”

“Ah man, it’s beautiful they got everything, every kind of machine,” said Barbara Dolman. “It’s like a ballroom. They’ve got all kinds of restaurants.”

“It was overwhelming,” said Shannon Tarnaski. “It was just very big, bigger than a lot of other casinos close by.”

“I can’t wait to get back,” one man told NewsChannel5. “I’m going home to cash this check and I’ll be back in the morning.”

@rodofdisaster is the author of our in-season “Xs and Os with the Bros” feature. Here he is with some thoughts on expectations for first and second round NFL draft picks. Enjoy.

—————

There isn’t an NFL fan around who doesn’t at some level enjoy the strategy involved in the game, and I’d suggest that the chess match that takes place between the teams in each matchup is what keeps most of us glued to the TV on fall weekends. But of course, it helps a lot to have better players with which to execute these schemes, and nothing makes for easier second-guessing than NFL draft picks, which is why more people tune in to the NFL Draft than regular season baseball or playoff hockey.

Like many of you, I frequently listen to sports radio (NFL Radio to be exact) but I won’t listen for the two weeks before the Super Bowl and at least a week before the draft when the overanalysis and hyperbole are maddening. I don’t pay much attention to mock drafts, either. But retrospective analysis of previous drafts is another story.

Last week, I was listening to The Opening Drive with Bob Papa and Ross Tucker (weekdays 7-11 am EST) and they went through the 2008 first and second rounds. (Under the new CBA, there is an option for a fifth year on rookie contracts and this group would be up for that option under the current arrangement.)

The analysis of the second round of that draft really caught my attention. 

Check out this recap at Scout.com and tell me if you can count any more than 12 of these 32 guys as successful picks five years after the fact. Also note that TEN wide receivers were picked in the second round, with only two (DeSean Jackson and Jordy Nelson) classifiable as undebatable successes. Read some of those accolades showered on these other guys and tell me if it doesn’t make you laugh or cry.

And think: Why is it that teams covet these draft picks so much? How many times have we heard of a team not wanting to trade that second or third rounder to move up and get the guy they really want? This might be six of one, half dozen of the other, but I believe teams are less concerned with the caliber of the player they’d be losing than they are with lessening the number of chances to mitigate the poor odds. At this point it’s easy enough to say that Travis Benjamin was a worthwhile fourth-round pick, but based on historical success of fourth-round draft picks alone, his chances of being a solid #2 receiver are remote.

If you have time, I’d ask you to do what I did last week, which is go back to the 1999 draft when the new era Browns returned to the NFL, go through all of the first rounds of the draft for the ten years through 2008, and give each player an analog “yes” or “no” grade for success. There were 316 players drafted in the first round over that time. By my judgment, 155 of them (49.1%) were busts. It’s a largely subjective exercise so I am not going to tell you who the players were or what criteria I used but even if I was too harsh and off by a pair of players per year, that would remove just 20 guys and the percentage of busts would still be 43%. One would think that first round draft picks give better odds than a coin flip given the way they’re so harshly judged on a micro level, but that just doesn’t seem to be the case at all.

Food for thought amidst so much excitement over a weekend of practice without pads.

For a billion things, including keeping that smile on your face even though MS has taken so much away from you.

And also for teaching me how to swing a baseball bat, and how to throw and catch a football, because all dad brought with him off the boat was a soccer ball. And also of course for marrying that guy off the boat, and for teaching him to enjoy baseball and football, too, and for birthing me in time so that I could have eight good years at the old Stadium and with the real Cleveland Browns. And for taking me to the real Browns games from the time I was seven-years-old. And for not calling the authorities every time I tripped or heard a cuss word. You are the best, and all I could ever begin to do to try to begin to repay you is try to begin to do for other people what you’ve done for me. I love you.

Except for NFL head coaching positions and other assorted management jobs. To Bob LaMonte clients only, of course. But other than that, we don’t hand anybody anything.

Shurmur irony/hypocrisy bomb via Tom Withers.

If you missed it in the thread below, here’s a note on pectoral tears from commenter ‘thatsfine,’ who’s “in orthopedic surgery.”

Browns Browns Browns Browns Browns, alright. Back shortly with something else we can all agree on.

The sky’s the limit now, Cleveland, because Dan Gilbert’s finally got it.

“We want to build a franchise with Kyrie or with other superstars, not around superstars,” Gilbert said [at a press conference yesterday timed to coincide with the opening of his latest regressive cash crab]. “We think that’s probably not a great formula for success, right? Or else we would have rings already here. We would have championship trophies. We believe the ‘With’ is the key here and we’re looking forward to adding more great pieces.”

And now we know. The reason historians will forever struggle with the brain teaser of which of the three, (combined 0.5-time All Stars) Mo Williams, Anderson Varejeao or Delonte West, was the best teammate LeBron James ever had as a Cleveland Cavalier is because the Cavs were trying to build “around” LeBron and not “with” him. And if you were wondering why the Cavs couldn’t have seen how every other NBA champion to ever win a title with at least one superstar on the roster (basically every NBA champion in history) managed to build “with” and not “around” those superstars, the inference is obvious. It was LeBron’s fault, of course. LeBron James, a force of darkness so singularly and powerfully evil that even an all-powerful American hero and saint like Dan Gilbert couldn’t overcome it.

What’s worse, that Gilbert peddles trash like this or that so many Clevelanders lap it up? (HINT: BOTH.)

In other news, Kanicki probably has it right with respect to the Browns parking lot shakedown scam of 2011 but we’ll stay tuned.

Hope everyone is having the best day. Back tomorrow hopefully, with something more fun.

92.3 The Fan’s Bull and Fox did a good job with their interview of Mike Holmgren yesterday afternoon and most of the headlines today are similar to the one here, because Holmgren said that he, “expect[s the Browns] to take a pretty good jump this next season.” No word yet on whether the folks at NFL.com have adjusted their prognosis for 2012 in the wake of this statement, but everybody saw how last season’s “No Excuses” mantra worked out, so.

But it does raise an important question about what happens if the Browns notch only one or two more wins in 2012 but manage to stay competitive in every game but one or two against one of the league’s toughest schedules, and even turn in a pair of dominating wins over two of the best teams in the league. And say this happens even despite a brutal run of injuries, including some that might force the team to do something like use a three-headed rotation of quarterbacks, including a third round rookie, none of whom would start for any other team in the league. Would Holmgren consider it a “pretty good jump” if the 2012 Browns could pull off something like that? We have to assume no.*

Anyway, more troubling, Holmgren’s statements about mentoring in response to a question about the Seneca Wallace thing:

“I look at that a little different than some people. You mention Jake Delhomme, Jake played in the league a long time and when he couldn’t play anymore because of the injury he wanted to do something. He wanted to. That coaching staff allowed him to take an active role, almost to the point of being an assistant coach. If I was still coaching I wouldn’t do that. The mentor thing is overblown to me. I’m going to coach the player. I’m not going to have another player coach the player. They can be friends but when it comes to what I want him to do on the football field, that’s my call not another player’s call. …  I don’t expect any of those guys to be mentors to anybody. I’m the mentor or the coach is the mentor.”

It’s too bad that Bull or Fox didn’t point out that when Colt McCoy had a head coach who encouraged mentoring, he played twice as well, as a rookie, against a slate of opponents that was twice as tough, than he did as a second-year quarterback under Pat Shurmur. But noted: To Holmgren, “people helping people” is overblown, and something that he discourages.** Heath Evans nods knowingly.

Alrighty, Browns. How can you not love these guys?

Thanks to everyone who came to the Happy Dog last night. We can blame most of what happened on the guy who kept sending shots up to the panel, so special thanks to that guy. Hope everyone is having a decent week. We’ll be back tomorrow or Friday with who knows what.

————–

*Even if you buy the idea that Holmgren had to bring in “his own guy” as a head coach once he was brought in as team president, or a guy who subscribed to the same narrow view as to how to win NFL football games, or from the same “tree” or whatever, it remains unforgivable that he fed us the bullsh*t line that he fired Mangini because the head coach “didn’t win enough.” Also unforgivable that Holmgren never publicly acknowledged that Mangini was fired despite the fact that he had done a very good if not excellent job with what he had to work with in Cleveland. Holmgren will always be the worst until he remedies this.

**From a 2011 piece on Holmgren’s quarterback in Seattle, Matt Hasselbeck, by Doug Farrar at Sportspress Northwest:

As he grew into his role with the Seahawks under a demanding taskmaster in Mike Holmgren, Hasselbeck enjoyed the benefits of mentorship from teammate Trent Dilfer, so he understands the need to pay it forward.

“I was fortunate in my career to be around some great veteran quarterbacks and just learned so much from them,’’ Hasselbeck said. “I’m kind of excited for that kind of an opportunity to maybe be on a team with a really talented young guy and just get the opportunity to pay that forward just a little bit, things that I’ve learned along the way. If I can share that with a really talented guy that’s willing to work and listen, that could be a really fun thing.’’

From the Facebook event page:

They don’t call it a “beat” for nothing. Aaron Goldhammer of WNKR’s “The Really Big Show” moderates this panel discussion on the thankless task of writing the first drafts of Cleveland’s uniquely tragic sports history. Panelists so far include Peter Pattakos of ClevelandFrowns.com, Vince Grzegorek of Cleveland Scene, Tom Reed of the Plain Dealer and Zac Jackson of Fox Sports Ohio. The event is part of the Write to Assemble series, curated by Ohio City Writers and hosted by Happy Dog. Admission is free.

From 7-9 PM. Like you need an excuse to go to the Happy Dog. Thank Tom Reed in person for pointing out that if Butch Davis had been in charge of the U.S. Military Draft in the early 40s, our nation’s capital would be Berlin.

—————

In other news, the dumbest thing ever: Chicago is a cursed sports town because of six bad months (per ESPN’s Michael Wilbon). Well it should be now because of Wilbon’s column so we’ll see how that goes.

Mobutu Sese Seko at Gawker on Mitt Romney’s Case Against a Mitt Romney Presidency (At least don’t miss the eighth paragraph, the one after the block quote: “But this is Planet GOP after all …”);

And a good read on LeBron by Kevin Van Valkenburg in last month’s ESPN mag if you missed it. The “Showtime 2.0″ part is especially interesting.

Alright, go Tribe. Happy Tuesday, Happy Dog. Hope to see some folks tonight.

You’ll be glad to know that the Battle of Puebla was foremost in the minds of the Progressive Field crowd on Saturday night. The sense of historical perspective was palpable.

In other news, Bud Shaw’s take on Seneca Wallace and mentoring is spot on; Here’s Andrew Perloff’s way-too-early look at the 2013 NFL draft’s first round at SI.com; Here’s a really good read from Erick Trickey in last month’s Cleveland Magazine on Dr. Martin Luther King’s Cleveland campaigns of the late 60s; and another reminder that we’ll be at the Happy Dog tomorrow night with a bunch of great folks for an Ohio City Writers panel on writing about Cleveland sports. Hope everyone’s week gets off to a decent start.

With the Tribe in first place and Terrell Suggs just having graduated from Balled Too Hard University, it’s as good a time as any to remember that it will still all have a fiery end for us as long as Chief Wahoo is an officially sanctioned symbol of Cleveland sports.

To that end, here are a few paragraphs from an early draft that didn’t make it into last week’s Scene cover story on the Curse of Wahoo:

It’s not just the physical characteristics that are stereotyped [by caricatures like Wahoo], but also behavioral patterns. [Professor David] Pilgrim [of Ferris State University and founder and curator of its Jim Crow Museum of Racist Memorabilia] explains that the Native American portrayals in [the museum’s] collection dating back to the turn of the 19th century track those of African Americans in a way that’s, “so similar, it’s scary.”

There’s the animalistic and insatiably destructive African ‘Brute,’ and the native ‘Savage,’ “on the warpath looking for scalps” (both, of course, out for white women as well); There’s the lascivious and manipulative African ‘Jezebel,’ and the hyper-sexual native squaw; And most pertinent to Wahoo, there’s the Stepin Fetchit ‘Coon,’ the “lazy, easily frightened, chronically idle, inarticulate buffoon,” that closely tracks the popular caricature of the worthless drunken Indian.

Pilgrim runs through these traditional categories of depiction, noting the buffoonish Wahoo’s resemblance to a “red coon.” He goes on to explain how the children of both groups were most often depicted as a “litter,” a “faceless, naked mess of children,” intended to appeal to Malthusian tendencies by inspiring fear that these “growing and menacing” minorities will “crowd out” the dominant race by continuing to reproduce. . . .

Whether or not one is prepared to agree that Chief Wahoo is racist, it’s impossible to argue that it’s not a caricature. It’s also inarguable that this caricature of a minority race was created, at a time when caricatures of minority races were popularly used to inflame prejudice and justify discriminatory laws and behavior. So why isn’t that connection alone enough to establish Wahoo’s continued survival on Indians uniforms as an objective embarrassment?

Hint: It is!

In other Wahoo news, a friend provided some details on the photo we ran here two weeks ago of former Indians owner Bill Veeck and a man in full blackface. It turns out that her grandfather is the third man pictured in the photo, Bob Yonkers, who was the sports editor of the Cleveland Leader and worked at the paper for some 70 years. Mr. Yonkers has passed, but his widow remembers that the photo is from a banquet for the Indians that was held by the Sports Writers Guild. The folks on stage were sportswriters impersonating team players, and Mr. Yonkers was dressed as Lou Boudreau (with bushy eyebrows drawn in). Based on the time period during which Veeck owned the team (1946-49), it’s a good guess that the man in blackface is supposed to be dressed as either Larry Doby or Satchel Paige. Blackface, redface. Back in the late 40s, everyone was doing it. Today, only in Cleveland.

Alright, go Tribe. This website is worth a few minutes of your time if you haven’t seen it (this video, too); And don’t forget next Tuesday at Happy Dog, beer and a panel on Cleveland sportswriting hosted by Ohio City Writers with panelists yours truly, Scene’s* Vince Grzegorek, Fox Sports Ohio’s* Zac Jackson and the Plain Dealer’s Tom Reed, and the discussion will be moderated by Aaron Goldhammer of ESPN Cleveland. Hope folks can make it and that everyone has a decent weekend.