Euro Footy 2008 Championship: A Tie for a Better Way

Coachie Ballgames has left us high and dry without a pick for today's Euro Footy Championship match between Germany and Spain. We can't let such an illustrious event pass without a pick, so it looks like we're going to have to fend for ourselves. Thankfully, we've found an angle that we can get behind.

Ballgames once wrote a fine post suggesting that goals are harder to score in soccer championship games, and that these games often end in a tie which is resolved by a shootout. He tells us that: "the average amount of goals scored at the World Cup has been falling steadily with every Cup, with the most recent Cup, in 2006 , averaging only 2.3 goals a game. The numbers fall dramatically for finals, with only 1.6 goals per game for every World Cup Final since 1990."

The weird thing about betting on these games is that, as Sportsbook tells us, "ALL SOCCER BETS WILL BE SETTLED AFTER 90 MINUTES OF PLAY." We're not sure why this rule is in place -- why they won't let us bet on who will actually be the champion, but at least they're sporting enough to give us the option to bet the tie. And this is the way for us to go today. We have no particular affinity for either of these teams (though we are glad to see that Mr. Big from Sex and the City has found something to do now that the show's run is over). If important soccer championships continue to be settled by shootout, which, as we agree with many, is a wholly unsatisfying way to end a match of such a beautiful game, perhaps we might sooner see these games resolved in a more appropriate manner. We like the idea that Coachie B. mentioned in the top linked post of taking one player off the field after every few minutes of overtime. P-P-P-Power Play! So we'll pull for the sister-kisser today. The Pick: Germany and Spain to TIE in regulation.

NCAA Mens' Hoops Championship: Changing Our Tune

We're calling off the dogs on Memphis tonight. Kansas opened as a 1.5 point favorite, but in two days, Memphis backers, entranced by the talents of Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, have bet Memphis up to a 2 point favorite.

But Rose skipped media day yesterday due to a stomach ailment. According to teammate Joey Dorsey, "he eats Gummy Bears and Starburst for breakfast, and Twizzlers and Honey Buns for dinner." Douglas-Roberts used media day as an opportunity to let us know that he's never lost a game of one-on-one. But it will be five-on-five tonight, and Rose and Douglas-Roberts will be up against some of the best defending guards in the nation in Kansas's Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and Sherron Collins

SI.com's Stewart Mandel points out Kansas's advantage in depth, scoring balance, and defense, and notes that "[i]n an age of one-and-dones and constant roster turnover, Kansas is the rare team that has kept together the same nucleus -- Rush, Robinson, Chalmers and Sasha Kaun -- for three seasons, adding Collins and Arthur last season and gradually building itself into a championship-caliber team."

At the outset of the Tournament folks questioned Memphis's ability to win because they couldn't shoot free-throws, and had played a weak Conference USA schedule. These folks appeared to be correct after the Tigers were pushed to the limit by Mississippi State in Round 2, narrowly escaping with a three point win. Now that Memphis has soundly beaten what we think are three overrated teams in Michigan State, Texas, and UCLA, they are everyone's darling.

Mandel quotes Bill Self's description of his Kansas team: "Not very often do you combine talent, experience, depth and toughness [like this team's]." It's even less often that you see a line move 3.5 points away from such a team winning in a high profile championship game. The Pick: Kansas +2.

Overall Picks record (7-7 (50%)). NCAA Hoops (6-6 (50%)).

Halftime Update: Kansas has a five point lead. This game is going as we expected. We doubt that Memphis, after watching YouTube highlights of themselves all weekend, have the wherewithal to come back against this tough Kansas team, Memphis's best big man Joey Dorsey is notably tired, and Kansas's depth should be an even bigger factor in the 2nd half. Shockingly, Memphis is a 2.5 point favorite to win the 2nd half. Can it be that these Memphis backers can't let go? We're going to pile on with a 2nd half play. The Pick: Kansas, 2nd Half, +2.5.

Super Bowl XLII: Why Tom Brady Is Not the Best Quarterback in NFL History and Why the Browns Should Let Derek Anderson Walk

Super Bowl Sunday, 2008: A Patriots victory over the Giants today and the volume will be turned up on the claim that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in NFL history. Leaving aside the obvious difficulties in evaluating whether this claim is true, the frequency with which this claim is made reflects just how easily people will overlook a fundamental reality about the game of football, and in doing so, over or underestimate the value of an individual quarterback. This willingness to view a quarterback in isolation from the rest of his team is also a primary contributing factor to the calls by Browns fans and sportswriters for the Browns to sign Derek Anderson to an expensive long-term deal. This would be a huge mistake. A quick look at the claim that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in NFL history helps to demonstrate why.

American football is the ultimate team game, requiring eleven different players to move in eleven different particular ways each time the football is snapped. It is quite often the case that an entire play is ruined if only one man misses his assignment. On a professional football field, at least six men are responsible for blocking defenders on any given play. If only one of these blockers fails, there is a good chance that a quarterback ends up eating dirt. If a receiver fails to run a precise route, cannot break free from a defender, or simply drops a ball, his quarterback’s statistics, likelihood of winning, and perceived performance will suffer in kind. Similarly, if a quarterback’s coaching staff is out-coached by the other side, a quarterback’s chances of winning and perceived performance will suffer. In many cases, the quarterback won’t ever have a chance to succeed. In sum, the quarterback’s performance will be a microcosm of his team’s offensive performance. This makes it difficult to evaluate the worth of an individual quarterback to his team’s success.

Anyone who wants to claim that Tom Brady is the best quarterback of all time has to separate his performance from that of his teammates and coaching staff. First, they must explain how Brady’s performance can be separated from the allegedly brilliant game plans of coaching “genius” (or inveterate cheater) Bill Belichick. Moreover, the Patriots front office is widely recognized as the best front office in football, having made a remarkable series of savvy moves that has left Brady surrounded by a terrific supporting cast of superstars, role players, and all around solid guys with a reputation for putting the team first. It’s no coincidence that Brady’s dream season comes in a year in which his offense received a dramatic upgrade, with superfreak All-Pro Hall of Fame lock Randy Moss joining his receiving corps, along with NFL receptions leader Wes Welker, and talented former Saints first round pick Donte Stallworth. Additionally, Matt Light and Logan Mankins, the left side of Brady’s offensive line, are both Pro Bowl starters this year. Brady’s entire offensive line has been starting together for three full years now, and are recognized as the best offensive line in football. When I watch Tom Brady play, what strikes me most is how much time he has to throw the ball. Brady’s individual success is certainly due in no small part to the performance of his teammates and his coaching staff. It is not difficult to imagine other quarterbacks having similar success if placed in a similar situation, and for my money, I’ll take John Elway over Brady any day of the week.

Which brings us to Derek Anderson, who like Brady, enjoyed a dream season in 2007. Like Brady, Anderson threw to two of the best receivers in football, Pro Bowler Braylon Edwards, and soon-to-be Pro Bowler Kellen Winslow Jr (who catches everything). Like Brady, Anderson threw behind a solid offensive line, with new additions Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach both having Pro Bowl worthy seasons. Like Brady, Anderson’s success is due in no small part to the skill of his teammates and coaching staff, in Anderson’s case the play calling of new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. Finally, like Brady, people want to overinflate Anderson’s role in the success of his team. As great as this season was, and as much as Anderson got the job done -- for the most part -- the Browns should not overpay him for the success of his teammates and coaching staff, especially not with first round pick Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. Quinn comes in with a better collegiate track record and more physical ability than Anderson, who, let’s not forget, melted down completely in the Brownies’ must win game against Cincinnati in week 16. Patrick McManamon said in the January 10, 2008 Akron Beacon Journal that Matt Schaub’s six-year $48 million contract with the Falcons will be among the deals most discussed when talks with Anderson’s agents become serious. This is absolutely frightening. As Browns fans we can only hope that GM Phil Savage, who won a Superbowl in Baltimore with Trent Dilfer, knows Anderson’s true value to the team, and is committed to Quinn, his own draft pick. But, as Browns fans, we must be ready for anything -- and anything close to a Schaub-like deal for Anderson will be a tremendous waste of the team’s resources.

Speaking of resources, there is a game to pick today. Super Bowl 42. The Patriots are favored over the Giants by 12 points, which seems like a high number given that the majority of the betting public (according to sportsbook.com) is picking the Giants. This means that the wiseguys think that they know something about the Patriots. Even still, I cannot bring myself to ruin a perfectly good Super Bowl by picking the Pats today and thus can only hope that the wiseguys are wrong and that the Gambling Gods will bring one home for America on this most glorious of American holidays. One thing that might help is the recent revelation that the Patriots might have taped a Rams practice before Super Bowl 36. I’ve read Crime and Punishment, and thus know what sort of missteps a guilt-ridden mind is capable of. One time for the good guys. Giants +12.