NCAA Mens' Hoops Championship: Changing Our Tune

We're calling off the dogs on Memphis tonight. Kansas opened as a 1.5 point favorite, but in two days, Memphis backers, entranced by the talents of Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, have bet Memphis up to a 2 point favorite.

But Rose skipped media day yesterday due to a stomach ailment. According to teammate Joey Dorsey, "he eats Gummy Bears and Starburst for breakfast, and Twizzlers and Honey Buns for dinner." Douglas-Roberts used media day as an opportunity to let us know that he's never lost a game of one-on-one. But it will be five-on-five tonight, and Rose and Douglas-Roberts will be up against some of the best defending guards in the nation in Kansas's Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and Sherron Collins

SI.com's Stewart Mandel points out Kansas's advantage in depth, scoring balance, and defense, and notes that "[i]n an age of one-and-dones and constant roster turnover, Kansas is the rare team that has kept together the same nucleus -- Rush, Robinson, Chalmers and Sasha Kaun -- for three seasons, adding Collins and Arthur last season and gradually building itself into a championship-caliber team."

At the outset of the Tournament folks questioned Memphis's ability to win because they couldn't shoot free-throws, and had played a weak Conference USA schedule. These folks appeared to be correct after the Tigers were pushed to the limit by Mississippi State in Round 2, narrowly escaping with a three point win. Now that Memphis has soundly beaten what we think are three overrated teams in Michigan State, Texas, and UCLA, they are everyone's darling.

Mandel quotes Bill Self's description of his Kansas team: "Not very often do you combine talent, experience, depth and toughness [like this team's]." It's even less often that you see a line move 3.5 points away from such a team winning in a high profile championship game. The Pick: Kansas +2.

Overall Picks record (7-7 (50%)). NCAA Hoops (6-6 (50%)).

Halftime Update: Kansas has a five point lead. This game is going as we expected. We doubt that Memphis, after watching YouTube highlights of themselves all weekend, have the wherewithal to come back against this tough Kansas team, Memphis's best big man Joey Dorsey is notably tired, and Kansas's depth should be an even bigger factor in the 2nd half. Shockingly, Memphis is a 2.5 point favorite to win the 2nd half. Can it be that these Memphis backers can't let go? We're going to pile on with a 2nd half play. The Pick: Kansas, 2nd Half, +2.5.

Fun and Done

40 years ago this weekend, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated in Memphis, Tennessee. 40 years later, to say nothing else about the fulfillment of Dr. King’s dream, it seems easy to conclude that one place where blacks are not discriminated against is on the NCAA basketball court. But this overlooks the fact that many of the very best of those who play on that court would not be playing there were it not for the rule barring entry to the NBA for players who are not at least 19 years old and one year out of high school. Unlike professional tennis, golf, and soccer players, who can earn millions at ages as young as 13, a talented teenage basketball player who would otherwise be able to earn millions from teams that would gladly pay him, is prohibited from doing so.

Perhaps there are benefits to preventing the talented few from earning a living for a few years, but whatever else its effect, this rule helps to maintain the NCAA’s status as a free minor league system for the NBA. But what about the rule’s effect on the college game? As San Diego Sports Law Professor Len Simon has pointed out, “If you were Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, would you want a player who was counting the days until he could go pro? And if you didn't recruit him, do you want him slam dunking over your players in the Final Four? This is a no-win situation for the best programs, and a chance for cheap thrills for the worst. The bottom line? A little more talent, a lot more headaches, a lot less integrity.”

Simon’s quote points up the stark contrast between this year’s Final Four participants – that three are blueblood programs, UCLA, UNC, and Kansas, and one, Memphis, is an upstart, led by superstar point guard Derrick Rose who is certain to leave for the NBA after this, his freshman season. We’ve been making picks based on the “trend toward parity” that we have seen in the NCAA in recent years. This trend has been called into question by the fact that all four number one seeds reaching the final four. But a Memphis victory would be consistent with the theory, and we’re going to stick with it. The Dr. King anniversary/Memphis connection helps. Plus, we like the idea of “one and done” players making a big splash in the Final Four, then leaving for the pros, if only because such a trend might put more pressure on the NCAA and NBA to figure out a better way.

The Pick: Memphis -2.

Overall Picks record (6-7 (46.1%)). NCAA Hoops (5-6 (45.4%)).

Our Final Four Pick

Check back tomorrow for a write-up.

Two Dog Night

The Elite Eight begins tonight with all four number one seeds still alive and playing as favorites in this weekend's games.

Our friends at covers.com tell us that, "[o]ver the last six NCAA Tournaments, Elite Eight underdogs have gone 15-8-1 against the spread (ATS), going 2-2 ATS or better in each season. Of those 24 underdogs, 10 have won outright, including six in the last two years."

We think that this is consistent with the general trend toward parity that we have seen develop over recent years in college athletics, and we will play that trend by taking both underdogs tonight. We think that both Xavier and Louisville have the talent to win outright against UCLA and North Carolina tonight. Xavier has athletic big men who can guard Kevin Love, apparently the only Bruin who can score, and Louisville, particularly center David Padgett, really impressed us on Thursday night against Tennessee. The general public favors both UCLA (55%) and UNC (68%), but the experts at wagerline.com are split on the UNC/Louisville matchup, and favor Xavier over UCLA. This indicates that the smarter money is on the dogs tonight.

The picks: Louisville +6 over North Carolina, and Xavier +6.5 over UCLA.

Overall Picks record (6-5 (54.5%)). NCAA Hoops (5-4 (55.5%)).

We Speak for the Tree

One nice thing about us here at Cleveland Frowns is that when we make a losing pick, we sometimes tell you in the title of the post that the pick is going to lose. No such situation today. We love Stanford +2 against Texas. The majority of the action is on Texas (80% at Sportsbook.com, 66% at wagerline.com) and we’re happy to go the other way. The early action indicates generally that folks aren’t enamored with Stanford’s 7-foot Lopez twins. Perhaps these folks are stung by memories of the Collins twins, but the athletic Lopezes are different, and Texas has nobody to contend with them inside. Perhaps it is easy to not take Stanford and the Lopez twins seriously, given that they are admittedly “obsessed” with all things Disney, and lay a claim to being Michael Jackson’s biggest fans – adorning their dorm room walls with Jackson memorabilia. But the twins seem to have interesting and principled reasons for their Disney obsession, and, whatever his faults, its refreshing to see some public appreciation for Michael Jackson’s work. Perhaps this is all indication of the kind of vision that helps leaders lead teams to victory, as the twins did last week against a tough and underrated Marquette team. They did so, despite their coach Trent Johnson having been ejected by an overzealous referee just minutes into the game. Having Johnson on the bench for the whole game will only help.

Texas, on the other hand, played an ugly game against a Miami team that they were expected to beat soundly. Texas shoots a lot of threes, and has hit them so far, but they can’t hit free throws (22-39 in the Tournament so far – yikes!) which is evidence of a lack of discipline. Texas point guard DJ Augustin, a borderline NBA lottery pick, gets a lot of press, but it should be tough for him to penetrate against Stanford’s size inside (see last night’s Tennessee/Louisville matchup – ugh!). Folks are saying that Augustin’s lottery status will largely depend on his performance in this tournament. If he plans to enter the draft after this season, this adds an element of pressure. While Texas will essentially be playing a home game tonight in Houston, this information is something that every bettor will and has already taken into account, and thus, is reflected in the line.

Brook Lopez is widely considered to be a lock for the NBA lottery once he decides to enter. Now folks are saying that his brother Robin should be a lottery pick as well. We’ll take the disciplined team with two potential lottery picks over the undisciplined team with one. The pick: Stanford +2. Check back tomorrow and Sunday for Elite 8 picks.

Overall Picks record (6-4 (60%)). NCAA Hoops (5-3 (62.5%)).

Volunteering Ourselves Up for the Slaughter?

We’ve analyzed the Sweet Sixteen matchups and one team stands out as a far sweeter pick than the rest. That team plays tomorrow night. Check back tomorrow for details.

As for tonight’s games, we’ll take the Tennessee Volunteers +3 to cover against the Louisville Cardinals. We know that Louisville has demolished the competition thus far in the Tournament. We know that Tennessee has squeaked its way into the round of sixteen. We know that Louisville’s Big East looks like a tougher conference than the Volunteers’ SEC. We know that Tennessee has a question mark at the point guard position. We know that Louisville is bigger than Tennessee. And we know that Tennessee star Chris Lofton has been held to single digit scoring in the Tourney’s first two rounds and has an injured ankle. We’re picking Tennessee because the Louisville pick looks too easy. We’re always wary of the team that looked too good in their last game. And Louisville has shot the lights out in the first two rounds. How long can that last? And they’ve also been repeatedly described as a group of bad character guys who have finally bought in. This always sounds suspicious to us, generally. Finally, we like Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl, who’s not afraid to go skins. The pick: Tennessee +3. Remember to keep something in the tank for tomorrow’s play.

Overall Picks record (6-3 (66.7%)). NCAA Hoops (5-2 (71.4%)).

NCAA Quick Picks: Round 2, Day 2

Hope you took Wisky and Marquette to the bank yesterday. Two more picks for today:

Davidson +5 over Georgetown: Davidson has Stephen Curry going for them, and that’s about it. Their tallest player is six inches shorter than Georgetown’s 7’2 Roy Hibbert. But Stephen Curry is generally recognized as the best shooter in college basketball today. And he’s Dell Curry’s son. And there’s this from covers.com: “[Davidson Coach] Bob McKillop is the kind of coach that gets the most out of his players and can also manipulate the Xs and Os to put his team in a better position to win. He managed to overcome Gonzaga's [size] advantage (the biggest player on the Davidson roster is 6-foot-8) mainly because they were able to pressure the Gonzaga guards and keep the ball out of the paint.” Sounds good. Of all of the low seed small schools that have advanced to play high seeds, one of them should win, or at least cover. In looking at the other matchups, Davidson appears to me to be the best choice, and the most fun to pull for today. The Pick: Davidson +5.

Oklahoma +7.5 over Louisville: The line seems high for this game between two teams that play defense, and grind it out on offense. Oklahoma, unlike Kansas State, appears to be truly coming together at the end of the season after a number of fits and starts. Oklahoma is coached by former Duke star Jeff Capel, who made a terrific impression on us when he was a college player, and is likely slept on as a coach. Plus, Oklahoma has Longar Longar. We’ll take the points. The Pick: Oklahoma +7.5

Overall Picks record (5-2 (71.4%)). NCAA Hoops (3-1 (75.0%).

Don't Pass on Wisky

Number 3 seed Wisconsin (30-4) takes on 11 seed Kansas State (21-11) this afternoon in the Midwest Regional. Kansas State’s Michael Beasley is expected to be drafted first overall in this June’s NBA Draft if he declares. Bill Walker came to Kansas State with folks expecting big things from him. While he hasn’t panned out as expected, his 17 point first half against USC (22 points total) gave us a glimpse of his talent. So why is this team an 11 seed? Why did they lose 6 of their last 9 games before backing into the Tournament? Kansas State players claim that they have new life, after their coach brought extra energy into their Tournament preparation. But how long can that last? Folks are impressed with K-State’s individual talent, and with their first round upset win against USC.

But how big of an upset was it to beat USC? Tim Floyd’s USC? The same Tim Floyd who just a week or so ago decided to offer rapper Lil’ Romeo, a mediocre hoops talent, a full basketball scholarship? Floyd said that Romeo’s presence will increase the number of teenage girls in the crowd at their home games. U.S.C. star O.J. Mayo was the consensus number one recruit in the country last year, and chose USC because it was the best place from which he could “market himself.” Wrong O.J. The best place you can market yourself is in the late rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Better luck next year, if you decide to stay in school.

So yeah, we’re not buying that Kansas State has flipped the switch. They beat an overrated USC team. They won’t beat a very good Wisconsin team. Wisconsin is a disciplined team that has had two of its starters, Michael Flowers and Joe Krabbenhoft, named to the All Big Ten Defensive Team. Last year, going into the Tournament, Wisconsin was ranked second in the nation when they faced off against Ohio State in one of their final games of the regular season. In that game, their star, and consensus All-Big Ten forward Brian Butch suffered a grotesque elbow injury that kept him out of the postseason. We can be sure that the Senior will savor his chance this year.

The line started at 5, which was low, and has been bet down to 4.5 by Kansas State backers, who are, in effect, passing us the Wisky. We’ll take it. The Pick: Wisconsin -4.5.

We like Wisconsin so much that we’re hesitant to pick another today, but since we promised pickS, we’ll take 6 seed Marquette +3 over third seeded Stanford. Stanford was celebrating dunks when they had a 20 point lead over Cornell. Cornell. Marquette has three solid guards Dominic James, Wesley Matthews, and Jerel McNeal who average about 40 points and 10 assists a game. While I’m not sure I’ve ever understood this, there is that old adage about guard play being so important in the Tournament. Further, while they will be outsized against Stanford and the 7 foot Lopez twins, Marquette has experience playing against bigger teams, and neither Lopez is as big as Georgetown’s Roy Hibbart. The betting public loves Stanford here (82%), this line has been bet up from 2.5 to 3. We see enough reason to back the Golden Eagles here. The Pick: Marquette +3.


We'll take a look at tomorrow's action. If we like anything we'll post.

Home Cookin'

Golden Flashes. Damn... Can’t win ‘em all.

But you can win two out of three. In fact, two out of three is the goal. If the sucker bets didn’t win some of the time, the suckers’ money wouldn’t be there the rest of the time. It’s what makes the world go round, as they say. Or what makes the universe not collapse on itself…

But damn…Kent State. Bummer. So you see why we had planned to wait until Round 2 before we made some picks. But we couldn’t resist supporting a run with the local boys. And we’re not afraid to do it again tonight.

Tonight LeBron is all but assured of becoming the Cavaliers’ all time leading scorer – all but assured of passing the great Brad Daugherty – in front of the home crowd…his home crowd…on a most special Friday night. And it can never be more special for LeBron anywhere else but here in Cleveland. Here in Northeast Ohio, where he was born, where he is home, and where he was homeless – where he lived in his mother’s car. Where basketball meant as much to him than it could have possibly meant to anyone else. From his mother’s car, to Akron St. Vincent/St. Mary, to the ping-pong balls bouncing……just so that he would end up playing for the city and the people who could, would, and do love him the most.

And that’s why he would be a fool to leave.

Because no matter where he goes, no matter how much money Nike, Jay-Z, or anyone else promises to pay him, he will never mean more, could never mean more, than he does mean, and could mean to the people in Northeast Ohio. That means that no one could ever mean more to LeBron than we can.

And rest assured that, win or lose, the crowd at the Q will let LeBron know what he means to them tonight, and he will return the favor.

So we’ll pick the Cavs -5 tonight against the Raptors. Not because we think it’s an especially Savvy play, but because we think it’s a special one. Tonight should be one of those nights, another special chapter in what could and should be a long line of them.

So yeah, we’re picking the Cavs because we want them to win. We want to live in a world where LeBron blows us away tonight. We want to live in a world where LeBron stays a Cavalier. We want to live in a world where LeBron has no intention of leaving the Cavs, but pretends that he does so that he can sell New Yorkers some silly Yankee shoes. And if that’s not the world that we live in? It’s disposable income – we don’t pick to work, we pick to play.

Enjoy the NCAAs today folks. Our attention is on the pros tonight in Cleveland.

Check back tomorrow for Round 2 NCAA picks.

MAC Tournament Special: LeBron, Akron's 2007 Postseason Tournament Snub, And a Pot of Golden Flashes at the End of the Rainbow

The University of Akron Zips men’s basketball program suffered a series of crushing blows at the end of last season. First, the Zips lost their chance at an automatic NCAA Tournament bid by losing to Miami of Ohio in the MAC Tournament’s championship game on a “desperation three-point bank shot” that was controversial due to a late start of the game clock on the final play. The NCAA selection committee then declined to give the Zips an at large bid to the Tourney. Finally, and shockingly, the Zips, after finishing 26-7, were left out of the 32 team NIT Tournament field.

The Zips were shocked and devastated by the NIT snub. “I just don't know how I can look my kids in the eye and explain this," said Zips Coach Keith Dambrot. "Really, what did we do wrong?" Terry Pluto wrote in the 3/21/07 Beacon Journal that Zips athletic director Mack Rhoades was so stunned by the news that he lost his voice.

The NIT explained that Akron didn’t make the cut due to its weak schedule. Others say that it was because larger schools from the bigger conferences attract better television ratings. But there is another explanation that surprisingly has not been discussed, either by the media, or by representatives of the Zips -- that is, their affiliation with LeBron James.

The Zips were led last season by MAC Player of the Year Romeo Travis, and point guard Dru Joyce III, both former teammates of LeBron at Akron’s St. Vincent/St. Mary High School. Both players have remained good friends with LeBron, and neither would be mentioned in a national telecast without mention of their LeBron connection. Coach Dambrot coached LeBron at St. V, and would have been glad if the TV announcers would have mentioned LeBron’s Zips connection. In his words: "Having the best player in the NBA around has been the great equalizer for us . . . He's been wonderful for our program. At [LeBron’s youth] camps, the kids always ask him where he would have gone to college. If I'm in the gym, he'll always look over at me, smile, and say, 'Akron.' I'm definitely not shy about selling our association to LeBron to recruits. I'd love to put a big poster up of him up in the lobby."

But LeBron is the LAST person the NCAA wants people to think about when they watch college basketball games. The best college players leave for the NBA after one season, and the exodus of talent has undoubtedly damaged the college game. The NCAA, which not coincidentally took on oversight of the NIT selection process last season, does not want fans to be reminded of this damage, or to raise any questions about the value of the monopoly that it has on the careers of basketball and football players of a certain age who, NCAA rules aside, could otherwise be using their talents to provide for their families – like LeBron did. (Note, this same monopoly was a substantial contributing factor to the destruction of Maurice Clarett's life.)

That the folks at Akron either were unaware of the potential effect of the LeBron connection on their postseason tournament chances, or thought it was a good idea not to discuss the issue after the fact, is reason enough to take the Kent State Golden Flashes -2 in tonight’s MAC Championship Game. Folks betting on Akron redemption after last season’s well-publicized “injustice” have surely influenced the line, making Kent a smaller favorite than they otherwise would be. Akron’s seeming failure to recognize or publicly acknowledge an important aspect of the nature of the injustice that it suffered leads me to believe that redemption is less likely to be forthcoming. The Pick: Kent State -2.